P&D Geopolitics Edition: China and Victoria Herczegh

By Rich Kozlovich 

Editor's Note: The two articles cited are Geopolitical Futures subscription articles and to read them you must subscribe, which I highly recommend.  So for now you will have to take my word for describing what she's saying, or not, as it pleases you.  RK

The four factors of geopolitics are, geographics, demographics, economics, and the most elusive of them all, the happiness factor.  The first three are definable.  The last is indefinable, or if you like, unending re-definable, since what constitutes happiness varies depending on what's happening in a population.  

In Ukraine, happiness would be the end of the war, and that's the most singular happiness factor in their culture.  In nations at peace and economically prosperous there is no singular happiness factor, and what constitutes happiness is all over the map, but for the most part Machiavelli defined it best.  Happiness for the privileged is to be able to maintain their privileges, and grow them if possible.  For the masses it's simple, the masses want security.  The ability to house, clothe, and feed their families in safety.  China provides neither for either of them, because the concept of individual God given rights is a totally alien concept in their foundational social paradigms. 

On September 20th, Victoria Herczegh published this piece, China’s New Revitalization Program, discussing how outside their coastal region China has some serious economic challenges.  She went on to describe all the central planning going on in China to revitalize these impoverished geographic sectors of China.   But it's based on central planning, which has always been the curse of economic policies, and in this case, that will be the cause of the failure for these polices.  

But central planning isn't the only foundational cultural problem the people of China face.  China's hierarchy and most of their population are ethnic Han, and the periphery is made of the other ethnic groups who hate the Han, and truth be told, I have no doubt the Han could care less what happens to them.

Victoria agreed saying:

Your observation is correct, the central government and the well-to-do Han Chinese population in general doesn't truly care about minorities. All there is are promises, and the occasional move to 'show that the leadership loves and cares about everyone in the country' - this is actually the slogan which accompanies the government's latest effort of giving cash handouts to those living in extreme poverty. However, Xi and his government has to realize eventually that to have peace in the country, they need people living on the periphery to be content with their lives. This is something that previous governments have also struggled with, and despite 'common prosperity' being on top of Xi's current agenda, it just seems to be more and more out of reach as other structural problems are piling up. 

The fact is China's central planning is being conducted by economic incompetents, as is true of all leftist, socialist governments, and this is going to fail just as everything they're doing for the rest of the nation is failing. China's economy is nothing short of smoke and mirrors, and all trade with them should be cut off as it was before Nixon and Kissinger screwed everything up and saved them.

Victoria followed up with a piece on China's military sabre rattling, which appeared on October 4th, "China Charts a New Path", noting their unprecedented military posturing in the South China Sea, even deploying their three carriers in order to intimidate all their neighbors because they're finding the world just can't trust them and their economic chicanery is catching up to them.  

Now the "United States, Australia, Japan and the Philippines, were joined by New Zealand for the first time for naval drills", letting them know they're not impressed, nor will the piracy they're practicing against foreign ships, including fishing vessels, be tolerated.   Recently a "Japanese warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait for the first time.....accompanied by vessels from Australia and New Zealand as it crossed the waterway, which separates Taiwan and mainland China. The ships were likely on their way to joint drills in the South China Sea."   China didn't like it, but did nothing about it except to lodge a protest.   How far that will go remains to be seen, but there are realities that must be embraced, because nothing is ever as it appears in China.  

The first aircraft carrier they developed in China was based  on 25 year old Russian technology, which other than tanks, has never been very good, but while aircraft carriers and tanks have been the backbone of military effectiveness since WWII, well, that's over!  They will still have a role, but the future is in drones and lasers, and any nation can build them and they're far more affordable than tanks and carriers.  If Iran is the production source for Russian drones, and it is, then anyone can make them.

 

I also doubt these newer carriers are all that much better, since the only technology they have has for the most part been stolen, especially from the US.  Break out technology, which usually means rowing against the current, isn't well tolerated by communists or central planners.

All this sabre rattling is nothing more than a dumb mob like play that can only cause kick back, and it is, and from every nation bordering the South China Sea, and Xi and his cabal are too stupid to realize that's a lost cause.  However, I think this is a good thing for the rest of the world.  It's now becoming obvious China intends to dominate the world by any means possible, no matter how illegal, how vile, or how corrupt it may be.  An insanely delusional goal since they can't even create their own internal economy, their demographic pyramid is a mess, and they're broke. 

 

Now it's impossible for all these invertebrate "leaders" of the world's governments to justify what China's doing, and they're starting to resist China's overtures.   And if Trump is back in office, this meteorite like flame will burn itself out when he imposes massive tariffs on China, and I believe that's what he will do because in many ways Trump reminds me of me, and I would do everything in my power to economically crush the entire Axis of Aggression, China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and any other nation that allies with them.  

 

All too often the Smoot-Hawley Tariff bill is cited showing how tariffs are a disaster, but this isn't 1930 and the world's economic system then isn't the world's economic system now.   I keep coming back to this question.  If tariffs are so bad and hurt the economy, why then do all these countries keep putting them onto American products?   

 

Another question I keep asking is why is it China did so well economically, in spite of the fact they can't create their own national market in order to survive?  Because their economy is export based, but it's still all smoke and mirrors, and just like junk bonds, they take big risks in order to create wealth but those risks are unstable against catastrophic adversity. 

Let's get this right, they all, and I mean all, need us, and we don't need them.  There are six reasons why.   We can feed ourselves, fuel ourselves, arm ourselves, defend our selves, create our own internal market, and we can actually pay off the nation debt by liquefying some of the 150 trillion dollars in assets held by the federal government.  No other country in the world can do all six.  We can, we win.

 

Every military strategy ever devised was perfect.  Until they met the enemy and they had a perfect military strategy also, and it always turns out neither was perfect.  But the one who won was the one who adapted quickly and changed to meet unanticipated challenges.  It's my estimation that Trump most likely excels in that better than any world leader in existence, and if elected, he will have the foundational resources to make it happen.

 

I know I've said this often, but it's always worth repeating.  Historians who specialize in historical cycles, all of whom write books that make your eyes roll back into your head, all agree on the fact we're coming to the end of a historical cycle, and all end cycles are filled with economic downturns and violence.  We're now seeing it taking place worldwide.

 

I believe there's a worldwide depression on the horizon and many of the world's nations are going to Balkanize into smaller states, including Europe, as that's their natural foundational social paradigm, and I'm convinced it will happen in China and Russia, both of which are facing huge demographic issues.