P&D Geopolitics Edition

By Rich Kozlovich

Recently we saw where Russia's Putin, China's Xi, and India's Modi met at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization conference that drew:

"over 20 regional leaders and featured speeches that subtly rebuked US foreign policy. Xi urged members to reject "Cold War mentality" and "bloc confrontation," while Modi endorsed multilateralism and a larger global role for countries like India."

And then they all held hands and sang kumbaya declaring undying love and a feeling of "peace and stability between them" creating an alliance to stand against Trump's tariffs.  Which made great press and great opportunities for lots and lots of CO2 being expelled by talking heads, but it's a load of horsepucky.  

As for me, I just shook my head, rolled my eyes, and chuckled.  China wants to end the Cold War mentality?  Really?  By whom?  Certainly not China based on all their actions to date.  And Modi wants the world to embrace multilateralism, whatever the heck that really means.  I'm betting he defines that as meaning they want Russia, China, India and the U.S. to work together as "equals", allowing the three of them to rape America and share in the wealth equally, leaving America dying.  At least they're consistent. 

These three nation have hated each other for centuries.  It's part of their foundational social paradigm, and for good reason as they're been at odds militarily for centuries. 

Recently China and India were exchanging fire in the Himalayas.  Why in the world would anyone go to war over mountains that have no economic value, yet China keeps provoking India over .... mountains!  They don't care about owning mountains, they care about intimidating their neighbors.  China has been playing the bully boy role throughout all of South East Asia, and is still doing so in the South China Sea demanding control of international waters and even attacking Philippine fishing vessels in what is clearly Philippine's waters. 

1. Deadly Incident at Sea Heightens China-Taiwan Tensions -Beijing is seizing on the death of two Chinese fishermen to exercise greater control around Taiwan's Kinmen islands, raising the risk of more dangerous encounters in the area.
2. Chicoms overfish, leave trash all around South America's waters -- and it's worse than it looks - The United Nations says they've done a bang-up job depleting 90% of the world's fishing stocks with their illegal poaching. So much for China's lip service to the environment.

This must be what Xi means when he meant when at this conference he:

"...........unveiled the Global Governance Initiative, a five-point plan calling for adherence to international law, support for multilateralism, rejection of double standards and equal participation in global governance regardless of a country's size or power."  Xi also proposed creating an SCO Universal Center for Countering Security Challenges and Threats and establishing an SCO Development Bank to deepen security and economic cooperation. 

In short, he's saying I'm broke, and I need access to other people's money, and I'll be saying anything it takes to con others into this scheme so I can continue to exploit the nations around me.  China's  spending massive amounts of dollars they don't have on their military and their economy is heading down the tubes, especially after their years long real estate crash, that's not going away.

In April of last year the CCP implemented:

......more aggressive laws and policies that favor Chinese companies, especially its state-owned companies. Its new foreign relations and espionage laws, which went into effect last year, open the door to more protectionist meddling. As Michael House, a partner at Perkins Coie gently put it, “The current environment lends itself to more occasions where a regulator or someone in the government in China may choose to take action that is non-transparent.” The reality is the CCP can do whatever it wants. Just ask the folks at Bain & Co. and other US consultancies that China raided last year.

That was from an article at Mauldin Economics, and it confirms doing business with China is like taking a viper to bed.  

China is a nightmare, not only for the world, but even worse for the Chinese people.  These vile disgusting monsters are murdering people for their organs and persecuting anyone they deem "radical", such as the Falun Gong.  We've known about this for over 2o years, and we're still playing patty cake over economic issues with them.  

• China’s Children Scarred by CCP’s 25-Year Persecution of Falun Gong ‘The persecution really harms everyone, especially young children and teenagers,’ said a young Chinese man.  

After their Third Plenary Session of the Communist Party's Central Committee ended in July of 2024 the conclusion was, Xi was in charge, he will decide what goes on economically, internationally, and domestically, and anyone who didn't like it was in deep trouble because no disharmony will be tolerated.  "Days of balderdash, and untold pages of jabberwocky, just to say that."  But it's not appreciated in China, especially among the young.

China's economy is smoke and mirrors.  I've been saying that for years, in opposition to the conventional wisdom I might add, and everything being reported shows it's true.  

1. Geopolitical Futures reported that fear of U.S. secondary sanctions led several banks to stop accepting yuan payments from Russia. Why?
2. While publicly China still welcomes Russian business, they're more concerned about American business and work to avoid sanctions. Why? 
3. Would America care if China sanctioned American business? There would be some in the commercial sector that would, but overall, America wouldn't care.  Why?   

The answers to all these "why" questions?  We don't need them, they need us. 

China's spending massive amounts of dollars on their military they don't have.  Why?  Xi's not going to attack America, Japan, Philippines, or even Taiwan for that matter, no matter how much sabre rattling Xi might do, but India and Russia are doable.   Their economy is heading down the tubes, especially their real estate crash.  

Russia's in deep economic trouble,  and in no way can India replace their economic ties with the west with anything Russia can offer other than oil and gas, and any advantage that may bring will be offset with tariffs.  But even if they get all the energy they can use in order to manufacture goods, where do they sell them?  Neither Russia, China, India or any of the 20 nations at this summit can create their own internal markets large enough to stand alone.  

I've said this often and it needs to be said more than often.  There are six things an advanced industrialized nation must have in order to stand alone.  It must be able to feed itself, fuel itself, defend itself, arm itself, create it's own internal market, and pay off it's national debt.  The only advanced industrialized nation in the world capable of doing all six is the U.S. 

If these nations decide they have alternatives to the West.  Well good for them, let's see how well that works out. 

China and Russia have decided they need a pipeline going through Mongolia which would deliver "50 billion cubic meters of Russian gas per year via Mongolia for 30 years", but all the energy in the world will not resurrect a failing economy if they can't sell their goods to someone. 

U.S. imports from China are crashing and it's possible China's trade with Russia will soon surpass trade with America.  Good, losers trading from losing positions doesn't make winners, but something I've been watching the last few years is China's interest in investments in Kazakhstan, a former Soviet Republic where Russian influence has waned since the Russo/Ukraine war started, and to the tune of billions of dollars and over 6000 Chinese backed companies operating in that nation.  China and Belarus have recently developed a defense agreement.  A defense agreement right on Russia's border?  Imagine that!   Does anyone think all this gives Putin a warm and fuzzy feeling all over?

As I stated before, Russia's in deep economic trouble, and Russia cannot in any way offset India's economic reliance on the West.  

Nearly one third of Russian companies were unprofitable in the first half of 2025, the highest level since the pandemic..... the main drivers are a high key interest rate, rising costs and new tax rules. Coal mining, housing and utilities, transportation and scientific research companies were hit hardest.

Western sanctions have caused "17 coal-related enterprises to shut down due to Western sanctions and declining global prices"m and the "Ministry of Finance announced that it would hold auctions to attract 10 billion rubles ($124 million) in credit funds to cover the region's budget deficit and debt."  Worse yet, this major energy supplier is running out "of AI-95 gasoline in several regions.  Supplies have nearly vanished from Crimea and Trans-Baikal. Experts blamed supply disruptions and seasonal demand and said that if conditions persist, other regions may face shortages." This is more than seasonal demand issues.

Russia is fraught with supply chain issues with large numbers of companies saying they can't find supplies and no longer can access material from abroad due to sanctions and are trying to find material from Russian friendly nations.  But what happens when they get sanctioned? 

The foundation of the Russian economy is self destructing in order for Putin to continue his war with Ukraine, using up manpower and resources his nation needs to survive, and Russia's problems are metastasizing, as they've triggered a response they didn't anticipate with their aggression in Ukraine.  

Poland launched its largest military exercise of the year, Iron Defender-25, involving about 30,000 Polish and allied troops and 600 pieces of equipment. The drills, which run through September, will span much of the country, with a focus on operations near the Russian and Belarusian borders and at sea. They coincide with Collective Security Treaty Organization maneuvers in Belarus and Russia. Poland said the aim is to test interoperability under full-scale combat conditions, incorporating lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war.

Let's be clear, Russia's falling apart internally, and is facing a coalition of fifty countries condemning Russia and Putin, and Europe has found alternatives to Russia energy supplies.  Russia's running out of time.  Considering the size of Russia's military, and how little progress they've made against Ukraine, Russia has lost this war.  It's destroying their demographic pyramid, it's economy, and government stability, and the leadership knows it and fears the consequences of all that failure from an angry public.  Even in Russia that happens as we saw when the Soviet Union collapsed.   Russia's central bank says their economy is "in a dismal condition and its future outlook is bleak."

Putin is refusing to meet with Zelenskyy and demands.... demands mind you.... the right to "veto of any security guarantees or subsequent security assistance to Ukraine."  All the while continuing to strike "civilian targets", and it seems clear anything he may have agreed to with Trump in Alaska was a lie.  

As for Modi's multilateralism, he's blocked Azerbaijan's bid for full membership, citing its ties with Pakistan.  Wait, isn't Pakistan an ally of Russia and China? Wasn't it one of China's missile air defense systems that shot down an India military jet?  Remarkable, don't you think?

So much for ending the cold war mentality, bloc confrontations, adherence to international law, support for multilateralism, rejection of double standards and equal participation in global governance regardless of a country's size or power", and creating a kumbaya "multilateral" world.  And as time goes by the number of inconsistencies, divergences and outrages will multiply significantly because that's who they all are, that's who they always have been, and that's who they always will be.

P&D Geopolitical Edition, July 9, 2025

 By Rich Kozlovich

There's every indication China's "President for Life" Xi may be facing some serious issues for his continued rule.  I'd hoped he'd last long enough to fully destroy China's economy.  His hero Mao was on the verge of doing so before Nixon and Kissinger bailed him out, but I don't think that's going to happen now, at least with Xi at the helm.

There's been a lot of purges going on with charges of corruption including his military.  I'm sure all the corruption charges against these military people are valid.  For a long time there was a tacit understanding between them and the Xi cabal.... don't bother us, and we won't bother you.... and  Xi needed them, ergo the corruption metastasized.  

•  How Long Can a System Built on Lying, Cheating, and Corruption Survive

But for them to be exposed and purged, and Xi couldn't or wouldn't stop it, one has to ask why?  In my opinion that's the real story, and needs closely watched to see who the players are behind this.   I'm of the opinion every military in the world has a von Stauffenberg cabal, and I also believe every government in the world has a von Stauffenberg cabal, including China. 

 There's a youth league faction of Xi's government who favor "socio-economic reforms to reduce inequality as well as collective leadership and consensus-based rule", which Xi seriously marginalized almost to extinction early in his rise to power, but that movement appears to be resurging.  So, if Xi's tossed out and they become dominant it's possible they wouldn't be so hot to continue all China's international mischief making, it's not good economics. 

But as of right now, China's spending massive amounts of money on their military with the worlds first twin-seat fifth-generation fighter jet, which can be used to control for "unmanned wingman aircraft and could also be used as electronic attack aircraft and airborne command posts."   All of which becomes more interesting remembering nothing about China is ever as it appears.  So, is there more than what appears here on the surface?  I think so.  What tanks and jets were to 2oth century warfare, drones and lasers will be for 21st century warfare.  

I've reported that Russia can't produce it's own military hardware, but now China is helping Russia build a drone factory in Khabarovsk that will produce 10,000 drones a month.   Clearly the intent is to produce drones China will be using also, with Russia footing the cost of the project.  

This is a city at the far Eastern end of Russia sitting right on the border of China, and at one time a region once owned by China.  I find that interesting!  There's also evidence they're getting support from "Chinese academic institutions and firms sanctioned by the United States."  More reason to impose more economic hardships on China.  

The world's nations have a debt load of almost 310 trillion dollars, and much of that can't be repaid, nor can it be collected.  And that includes China.  Much of that money is gone and China won't be able to do a thing about it.

Their Road and Belt schemes are failing, their loan traps to smaller nations is weakening their economy, their BRICS scheme is demonstrating a serious failure in planning, organization, and implementation, since as far as I can tell they have no logical plan for implementation, what currency will replace the dollar, and there's bickering in their group as it becomes more obvious any scheme they adopt must benefit China, even if it impacts the rest negatively, and that's not sitting well with them. 

Iran is not to be trusted no matter what they say and do publicly.  Behind the scenes they asked for a meeting with Trump over their nuke program, which Trump rebuffed since it been destroyed, and then Iran claims they never asked for such a meeting, not trusting Iran should be (SOP), Standard Operating Procedure.  Russia is willing to restore Iran's enriched uranium supplies, and now China has supplied Iran with their HQ-9B surface-to-air missile systems.  Why does China care.  They get around 80% of their oil from Iran.  That's a major weak point for both of them, and the last thing China wants happening is for Israel to destroy Iran's oil producing sectors.

Finally, Putin attacked Ukraine claiming he was afraid of NATO, which was an excuse, not a reason for his revanche aggression, and what ended up happening was he scared the western European powers so more nations joined NATO.  Trump forced them to step up and start funding NATO on their own and raise their contribution percent from 2 to 5 percent, and now they're laying down plans to repel any Russian incursion into Europe's NATO members. 

Trump says he's pretty much had it with Putin, and in spite of wanting to end sending more military hardware to Ukraine, which is depleting America's supplies,  he's backed away from that saying events made it necessary to keep Ukraine supplied.  

There's actually a lot more going on, but this will do for today.  

 

P&D Geopolitics Edition, Russia, Ukraine, and Donald Trump, Part III

Today the KGB, in all it's manifestations over the last 100 years, has now outlived communism and Russia is no longer a state with a security service, instead the security service has a state. 

By Rich Kozlovich, TagsP&D Geopolitics Edition: Russo/Ukrainian War, and Donald Trump, Putin

In December a Russian general was assassinated, and six days ago another Russian general was assassinated, very near Moscow, and it's not being done by the Russians, not their style when dealing with internal conflicts.  That's why they have gulags and work camps.  These were vehicle detonations and most likely done remotely.  

This might be viewed a small thing in the overall picture, but I see this in a different light.  I think it's a very large small thing, and is a foundational insight into the Russian military, their internal security is deteriorating, and I've stated in the past it seems likely to me there's a Claus von Stauffenberg cabal in their military.  As I read this I wondered if this isn't a subtle evidence of that being so, as it seems this required inside information.   Just a thought... as I said... subtle evidence. 

There are two camps in the Russian hierarchy, the war mongers who insist on fighting until total victory is attained, because like all criminals, they just can give up on the con.  They insistent on clinging to the fallacious argument NATO and Europe, with support from America, are now, and have been on the verge of attacking Russia.  The ridiculous "depth of defense" argument that's been used to justify their unwarranted attack on Ukraine by Russia.  I'll tell you what, we'll come back to that.

Then there's the group who sees reality and recognizes they need peace as a matter of practicality.  This was has cost them hundreds of thousands of young men who will no longer be around to contribute to their population, which has a serious demographic problem.  Ten years ago it was estimated by 2040 ethnic Russians would be a minority in their own nation.  That drop in the Russian ethnic demographic has now been speeded up - a lot.  Putin's insane war has put Russia's demographics in free fall.

Russia has seven defensive gaps they feel they must defend, and ten years ago they only had enough manpower to fully man three of them.  Now their manpower level is so bad there are now mercenaries from 48 nations with boots on the ground including N. Korea and China, seriously exposing the Russian military isn't a bear.   They're so desperate they've duped poor young Indian nationals desperate for foreign employment into fighting in Ukraine. In fact this war has turned into a meat grinder. A riot broke out over this in Krasnodar and their desertion problem is real.

The economics of this war is killing them and they want a restoration of economic stability and a return of international investments, but they don't want to make any concession until they conquer more territory. 

According to Ekaterina Zolotova, an expert analyst for Geopolitical, that's a reflection of the Russian mentality overall.   The majority want peace, a minority wants war, but a huge majority of all Russians insist there should be no concessions or minimal concessions.  That's Putin's conundrum. 

The drop in the price of oil and U.S. sanctions has caused Putin serious budget issues.  Central Asian nations that were former USSR republics are now doing more business with China, who is even wanting to fund building a small nuke power plant in one of these nations, and that's a pattern that won't end when this war is over.  

China's cut a "comprehensive strategic partnership" deal with Azerbaijan involving travel, trade, science, energy and...get this... tourism.   But here's the kicker.  They're agreeing to affirm mutual support for sovereignty and territorial integrity.   How far will that range?  As for right now Azerbaijan agrees that Taiwan is part of China and China agrees to support Azerbaijan in their conflict with Nagoya-Karabakh.   Didn't even know there was such a thing did you, but this is a major small conflict on Russia's border that's been going on for years, and one that Russia can't resolve due to this Ukraine war.  Azerbaijan is on the west cost of the Caspian Sea, right in Russia's back yard, and China is stepping in where Russia has failed.   Russians can't even manufacture their military needs, so China does, and has been doing so for some time.

Even Pakistan is involving themselves in the Russian sphere of influence, and truth be told, Putin needs to worry far more about China than NATO or the U.S.

Back to the "Depth of Defense" big lie.  In February Putin predicted Trump was going to make Europe's leaders ‘Bend at His Feet’ saying:

“They just don’t like Trump. They forgot him actively, really interfered in political life, in the election process of the United States. And then they were confused when Trump suddenly won,” Putin said. “But I assure you, Trump with his character, persistence, he will restore order pretty quickly. And all of them, you’ll see, it will happen quickly, soon, all of them will stand at the master’s feet and gently wag their tails.”

Why is that important?  It's a tacit acknowledgement that Putin understood who and what these European NATO "leaders" were and had to know they had no plans, desires, or ability to attack Russia.  

There have been prominent writers who claim Putin doesn't bluff, I think that's a load of horsepucky.  I've paid a lot of attention to him over the years, and read a lot of Russian history, and he's still practicing what Russian communists have been practicing since they took over, it's called maskirovka, a masquerade.  

The Russians always bluff unless they have an overwhelming advantage where there's no need bluff in order to get their way, then they just use the hammer.  Just like when the USSR crushed the Hungarian Revolution in 1956, or the Czech revolt known as the Prague Spring in 1968, where nothing could have stopped Soviet troops from overwhelming those nations.   That's not the case now, and what advantage he had has dissipated massively, at many levels.

Russia was considered the number two military nation in the world, which has been fighting a war against the 22nd military nation in the world for three years, but he's not going to launch nuclear weapons against Ukraine.  He can't take the risk of retaliation, and NATO is now aware of how dangerous Putin is, and is talking retaliation, which makes you wonder from where they're getting their natural gas now, and do they really want Warsaw or Berlin to become a nuclear waste land?  

But Putin really doesn't want Moscow to become one either, and I don't believe he will take that chance.  I also believe he's facing some internal political issues that scares him. Is there a Claus von Stauffenberg cabal within his military?  Absolutely!  Historically, being Caesar is the scariest most dangerous job in the world, or in this case Czar, without the religious trappings.  

There's always a Stauffenberg cabal, look at what happened to the American military establishment.  Would they take action if he attempted to use nukes?  I think so.  He's not the chess player we thought he was, but that's when he was dealing with nitwits like Obama, but I also don't think he's that stupid either. He's not really all that smart, he's just clever.  Even if there's no retaliation the international consequences will be massive.  He's already destroyed Ukraine far beyond his economic ability to rebuild it, and nukes would merely make it worse, so where's the victory? 

He's failed to defeat Ukraine in three years, and it's clear Russia's military, and especially it's military leadership are not all that after all.  Bad leadership, bad training, bad strategy, poor logistics, terrible planning, lousy intelligence, and stupid arrogant conclusions, all of which has been the problem with Russia for 125 years, going back to the the 1904 Russo/Japanese war, which Russia lost, and then WWI, which they lost.  They only defeated Germany in WWII because Germany was overstretched.... way over stretched....  and America provided much needed hardware, especially the Dodge truck.  

It's been said the Dodge truck saved the Soviet Union, as that allowed Stalin to quickly transport men and material around the country, which he was incapable of doing before that.  Horse cart supply lines don't cut it. If Germany had finished off England first, and hadn't declared war on America, Russia would have lost, badly, even with the 30 divisions he had stashed in Eastern Russia to repel a feared Japanese invasion.

This war has exposed just how fragile Russia is economically, industrially, and domestically.  As a result,  Putin's international credibly is in the toilet, and he needs for this war to go away.  He also needs to come out looking good, or at least not as the loser, since in Russia failed leaders aren't well tolerated, and I've no doubt, given the murderous thug he's been, he legitimately fears for his continued existence.  

He also knows France and others are talking about putting boots on the ground, and Trump didn't want to keep funding Ukraine any longer.  He clearly needs Trump to work some diplomatic magic as he did with the Abrahamic Accords, and that will have to be a multinational agreement that binds Russia to Ukrainian protection, which will require an entire restructuring of Ukraine's government.  Good luck with that, as each time they seem to reach an agreement one or both parties reneges, and Trump made it clear he's had it and is more than willing to walk away. 

But now Trump has allegedly cut a deal with Zalenskyy over mining in Ukraine, as a result, a fund would be created out of that to rebuild Ukraine and Trump is partially ending his ban on military hardware.  A lot of military hardware.   Fifty billion dollars worth of military hardware, so we'll see what happens, but make no mistake about this.  There are no good guys in this war, only one worse guy, and that's Putin.

P&D Geopolitical Edition

By Rich Kozlovich

As is well known Hamas launched a surprise attack against an unarmed defenseless civilian population performing vile acts on men, women, and children, even baking a baby alive in an oven and filming it to the great pleasure of Gazans.  They initially attacked wearing some form of uniform, but as soon as they became the targets they dumped those uniforms as they had no desire to have a standup fight with armed and trained military personnel.  Killing defenseless men, women and children is so much easier.   

Now it's a war of attrition, and some are questioning who will survive, Hamas or Israel?  Get real, Hamas is doomed in Gaza, and even the Gazans are marching against them.  Not in favor of Israel mind you, just in favor of their own self interests, they would still dance in the streets if more coffins with dead Israeli hostages were paraded through the streets.   There are no innocents in Gaza, and in spite of Hamas claims 70% of casualties have been women and children, that's another lie, it turns out "72% of casualties are male, a demographic that aligns with Hamas combatants."

 In Turkey President Erdogan arrested his political opponent in the upcoming election and Erdogan's regime has taking on all the ear marks of the Iranian model of government, and an awful lot of people are really unhappy about that, triggering massive demonstrations involving hundreds of thousands of people, as the author goes on to say:

The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, the leading political rival of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, on corruption charges — after being accused of both corruption and terrorism — marks yet another sign that Turkey is becoming the next Iran: A state where elections are tightly controlled, rigged in advance and reduced to a democratic façade without free and fair campaign conditions.

Turkey’s Islamist ruler has not yet established an official Turkish equivalent of Iran’s Guardian Council — a 12-member body that vets all candidates in elections and disqualifies those who pose a perceived threat to the mullah regime. However, the arrest of İmamoğlu, following the earlier imprisonment of popular Kurdish political leader Selahattin Demirtaş, who has been in jail since 2016, confirms that a de facto Guardian Council is taking shape in Turkey.

Turkey is becoming a state where elections are tightly controlled, rigged in advance, and reduced to a democratic façade without free and fair campaign conditions.

Notice the pattern playing out here worldwide.  Erdogan weaponized the justice system, wants to rewrite their constitution eliminating their legislative structure to install him as the absolute ruler, a "theocratic dictator".

While there may be some validity to charges of corruption against İmamoglu, corruption is so wide spread in Turkey's political sphere that would be expected, but it's only allowed for those who support Erdogan.

Will these demonstrations alter Turkey's political structure?  We'll see, as every tool of oppression is being used against anyone who stands against Erdogan.  But I think it needs to be understood none of this is really about Democracy as we know it.  It's about changing who's in charge for their own benefit.  Corruption in government isn't an anomaly throughout the Middle East and Africa, it's the rule, and it's a rule the group in power wants to exploit to the limits, and even beyond.

Anything said by Erdogan that may sound reasonable and conciliatory, is simply not to be taken seriously.  Remember, Iran is the model for what Erdogan is doing, and just like Khomeini who talked about bringing democracy to Iran and had no desire to become Iran's ruler, it was a deliberate lie.  A lie that was reported by a gullible media, after all they really liked the idea the pro-American government of the Shah of Iran was deposed.

In Turkey Erdogan has manipulated the tax system to punish anyone who disagrees or challenges him and fines any newspaper massively for reporting the facts about his polices, aims, and goals.   The media that remains spews out adoring accolades of Erdogan's greatness, and the tens of millions of children who've gone through their education system have been properly indoctrinated to be pro Erdogan supporters, all of which makes these massive demonstrations even more amazing.

Support for terrorist groups is part of Erdogan's foreign policy, and it's time the west recognized that, but Turkey is a member of NATO and that can't be ignored.  Their support of violent terrorist jihadi groups has to be addressed by declaring Turkey a supporter of terrorists, and such a designation should be the touchstone for all negotiations and dealings with Turkey. 

P&D and The Week That Was

 Truth is the Sublime Convergence of History and Reality

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De Omnibus Dubitandum, (Everything is to be questioned!)

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This Link will take you to My Commentaries. 

 

By Rich Kozlovich

 

 

This isn't a typical P&D and The Week That Was.  There are times even a newsie like me just can't stand it anymore, and so, on Monday I decided to take a couple of days off, and I liked it.  Then I decided, ....what the heck...., doing nothing for the the rest of the week looked even better.  

 

The weather's breaking and I have a lot of outside work I want to get done, and I'm getting my taxes in order for the accountant, and that's gotta be the least desirable thing I do in life these days.  So, today's edition of P&D will be a bit different.  While I've not been working posting or writing articles, I've been following the news, and organizing my draft files, which have become massive,  into a News and Views feature, linked below.

 

But I would like to focus on a piece I found most interesting, and humorous by David Strom in his article, Michelle Obama Turns Out to Be Even More Boring Than Meghan Markle, saying:

There has been a lot of sniggering about how Meghan Markle's Netflix series has flopped spectacularly .......But Michelle Obama.....-[who] Democrats held onto the hope that Obama would sweep in to save the day by jumping into the presidential race and decisively defeat Trump. She is trusted. She is loved. She is...boring.  So, so boring......she is really really, REALLY BORING......It is excruciating....... she's as likable as a bad case of hemorrhoids. 

Well, why would anyone who watched her or read her history over the years be surprised?  She a totally unaccomplished race hustler, who hustled for eight years with privileges, and travels around the world at the expense of American taxpayers as First Lady, and the Democrats thought she was their new leader?  Imagine that.

Nah, it turns out AOC is their new leader now, and little Chuckie Schumer is in trouble ....serious trouble...  with his base.  A base that's just as nuts and radical as AOC.  Why?  Well, he's always been great at puffing out his chest and talking big and bad, but there's a new sheriff in town, and he backed down and voted for the continuing resolution.  He's actually afraid now.....well schadenfreude.... that's how the SCOTUS justices felt when he sicced the mob on to them. 

I would like to focus on some Geopolitics.  The Russo/Ukraine War has forced a lot of nations to refocus their priorities, and its exposed a lot of truths.  First, Europe a totally unreliable ally, their pledges are as reliable as weather forecasters, not all members of the EU agree, and Trump isn't playing the game Europe wants.   Second, China is scaring everyone in Asia.  Result?  Defense spending is shooting up in Europe, and in Asia.  

Japan has ended it's "decades-old arms export ban".  South Korea's arms exportation is now a multi-billion dollar a year industry, one of the top ten in the world.   And there's now a cohesion between all these S.E. Asian nations involving intelligence sharing, economics, and defense spending, and policies, all in retaliation for China's militarized economic threats.  And Trump is finding how China is managing to skirt sanctions, and dealing with their machinations.  The economy of China is in trouble.

NATO expanded due to Russia's attack on Ukraine, and is now preparing for the US to walk away from NATO.  South East Asian nations are preparing to defend their sovereignty against China's aggression.  All that Putin and Xi have striven for is collapsing, no matter what ultimately happens to Ukraine, and it's clear, neither Putin, Zelenskyy, or Europe want peace, since each time a treaty appears possible, they throw a monkey wrench in the works.  

For some time I've noted this Russo/Ukrainian War has demonstrated what will be the new military strategy the world will embrace.  Drones and lasers, which I've written about, with lasers becoming the "force majeure" in the near future.   WWII demonstrated how all the WWI strategies were worthless, and now these drone attacks have shown just how worthless the WWII strategic planning is becoming.

For Iran and their terrorist puppets, while still talking big and bad, they're insisting they have nothing to do with the Houthis terrorists in fear Trump will, in conjunction with Israel, attack Iran.  Trump has vowed to destroy the Houthis, and Iran understands, he's not Joe Biden.  

The renewal of attacks on Hamas by Israel, with support from Trump, makes it easy for Iran to conclude that's on their horizon, and they're scared, and their society, which is sick and tired of their tyrannous Islamic government, is unstable.  Muslim protestors who are publicly supporting Hamas are being deported, and while there was talk that Egypt was going to welcome hundreds of thousands of Gazans for resettlement, Egypt has come out and made it clear...... they are not welcome.   That's not going to change anywhere among the Middle East Muslim controlled nations.  They're nothing but trouble wherever they go. 

The question about Egypt that seems no one is paying attention to is why they're building up their military?  Speculation is they're preparing for an attack on Israel.  But Trump is President now, and if that was what they were planning, I'm betting that's now on hold.

Turkey is a mess, economically, socially, and politically, which has been my position for years, in spite of all the experts saying how great they were doing, and a force to be reckoned with in the Middle East.   So, where are the mea culpas from the experts?    Experts have an unending weakness for being totally incapable of seeing "the basics" always embracing preconceptualism.   

They refuse to acknowledge the things known because they're inconvenient, and make up the things not known, in order to justify their actions, just like Henry Kissinger.  Setting folly into motion that's destructive impact can last decades, and possibly for generations.

The Balkans and the Caucasus are a mess, Serbians are having massive protests over..... I really don't understand it, but it appears they don't like Serbian leadership being cozy with the EU.  And we're shocked that Serbs are upset over something?  Imagine that.

Trump has revoked the security clearances of a lot of people, including Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and Kamala Harris, and while the left and their media myrmidons are going to go apoplectic over this, the base loves it and could care less what the rest of the world thinks.  So, now we see what all those who were screaming about Trump and classified material, the President of the United States is the absolute authority on the classification/declassification of classified material, and on who can have security clearances.  Not the bureaucracy, not the judiciary, and not the Congress.  The President of he United State is the ultimate classifying authority.  

Also, Jack Cashill is one of my favorite authors. Lot's of great history, sound logic, and he meets what I consider one of the most important qualities in a writer.  He questions everything, and here's his latest piece,  Is Dem Defector Lindy Li A Deep State Double Agent?  The history will impress and outrage you. 

Other than the four permanent links there will only be one today.

Links

• News and Views

Permanent Links

1. 45 Communist Goals to Destroy America as Listed in the 1963 Congressional Record
2. My Seven Rules of Geopolitics
3. The John Boyd Legion of Honor

 No matter what anyone says, you can’t marginalize the truth!  You can suppress it, you can ignore it, you can avoid it, you can attempt to undermine it, you can attempt to subvert it, you can attempt to organize against it, you can even laugh at it, but if we have the courage and the fortitude to stand and confront the lies, irrespective of the personal costs, the truth will stand the test of time, because truth and time are on the same side.

Constant as the North Star

P&D Geopolitics Edition: Russo/Ukrainian War, and Donald Trump

By Rich Kozlovich  Tags: P&D Geopolitics Edition: Russo/Ukrainian War, and Donald Trump

I just watched a podcast that got a lot right, and a lot wrong. It was suggested Zelenskyy's snit at the White House was staged by Trump, and that was from someone I have a great deal of respect for, but it's still clearly irrational. It was staged by Zelenskyy. When they have these meetings with the reporters it’s like a stage play with everything largely scripted out. It was Zelenskyy who went off script, and did so at the behest of the Democrats and RINO's who he met with previously, somehow convincing him he could embarrass Trump in front of the nation and get things he wanted that were not agreed to.

Is this Russo/Ukraine War the real end to the cold war? For the most part, yes, since now everyone knows the Russian military bear is a Teddy Bear, and Europe no longer needs to fear being attacked. The number two military nation in the world couldn't beat the number 22 military nation in the world in three years, and now needs recruits from North Korea to man their army.

While this is the true end to the Cold War, Russia will still be playing the bad boy on the block as long as they still have a quasi-Soviet form of governance. A form of governance that’s almost genetic in Russians, just as is their irrational fear of being attacked, while historically based, it’s now irrational, except for China. There’s more to be seen there in the future, at least until both their economies collapse along with the EU.

Call their leader a President, Premiere, dictator, or Czar, it’s a tyrannous form of governance, and is foundational to their centuries long social paradigm.

There was a comparison made between Putin and Ukraine and Lyndon Johnson and Vietnam. But there was a difference. America entered that mess because they tried to please the most unpleasable people in Europe. The French! Their anti-Soviet fears were valid, Stalin really did want to conquer the rest of Europe, but their actions regarding Vietnam were foolish, and make no mistake, the French are the most unreliable ally the world has ever known, and it was they who cause the Vietnam War, and no matter the public demonstrations, there is absolutely no European nation that trusts the French, and there are centuries of history that justify that view.

The French conned us with rhetoric about giving a form of independence to the Vietnamese, which some very smart people who were rabid anti-communists bought into embracing preconceptual politics. France was a country that should have been labeled as a collaborator nation after WWII, which it was, and never given a seat at the UN. But America’s leaders allowed themselves to be bullied by De Gaulle, who threatened to join with the communists if they didn’t give him what he wanted. Support their recolonization of Indochina. And this was the beginning of the cold war, which enabled preconceived notions refusing to accept what was known in favor of their preconceptions. They ignored the things known, and made up the things unknown.

The real culprit was FDR, who finally acknowledged just before he died Stalin had broken every one one of the promises he made at Yalta, and there was more than enough intelligence to know that’s exactly what was going to happen, and yet Truman failed to deal with it at Potsdam. FDR created the Cold War, Truman ran with it, and the rest of the world was stuck with it. That’s the problem when you have too many “really smart people” who are in charge with massive egos, and little intelligence, just like Kissinger and Nixon. They have no concept about “the basics” and no use for them, and ideology makes smart people stupid.

As for their inability to recognize there could be no military victory in Vietnam simply because they couldn't get the people on their side isn't entirely true. There were those, including respected military men, who pointed that very thing out, and yet, they recommended more military intrusion. The reason? Preconceptualism.

Preconceived politics, preconceived journalism, preconceived science, all refusing to recognize anything that may refute their preconceived notions, leading to failure.  Whether it involves global warming, or geopolitics.   But, then again, everything is geopolitical at some point, and once again, this idea that Putin was claiming  Russia needed a buffer between Russia and the west because they were scared, is horsepucky.  Get real, this argument they were afraid they were going to be attacked is folly.  It was all about revanche, plain and simple, and it would appear that’s the geopolitical hill so many are willing to die on, which I find flabbergasting. 

He knew there was no physical threat to Russia by anyone. He knew NATO couldn’t beat its way out of a wet paper bag. He knew the Europeans would do nothing, and we know that was what he believed when he acknowledged Europe’s leaders would end up coming to Trump wagging their tails. He had their number, so all this “depth of defense” clabber is nonsense.

America had no intention of invading Russia, and any claim Putin couldn’t know that and had to plan for the worst, is also horsepucky. The Russians have spies in every institution in America, and they’re excellent at infiltration. Their intelligence services use all the tools possible, and that includes electronic tools.

I’ve said this in the past and I’m going to restate it. I worked in intelligence when I was in the service, and every action being planned leaves trails. Trails that once picked up on are tracked, and there were absolutely no trails indicating America was going to attack Russia, and Putin knew it. How do I know that? Simply, no one in Russia is claiming any evidence of an attack in planning, which would have justified Putin's aggression, something he's desperately sought.

They knew America didn’t plan to invade, didn’t want to invade, and wasn’t going to invade, and merely wanted Russia to stop acting like the international bully they are. As for the argument Trump wants Putin to continue in power, since as a defeated Russian leader, he's weak and can be negotiated with, well, that may not matter.  Putin failed, Russia is suffering economically, and who knows how many hundreds of thousands of young mens lives have been wasted in this war.   He’s already showing signs he’s scared, and his goal now is to survive, so he desperately needs this war to end.  

There's already resistance in his government and even protests in Siberia.  Russian leaders who fail are discarded, and he’ll be replaced with someone who was against the war in the first place and who will see the big time advantage of having America on his side. Besides, the Chinese are going to be a problem for Russia down the road, and I don’t care what kind of big public agreements and statements they’re making now.

On February 20th Victoria White Berger published this piece, Oh, horrors! Trump pursues peace and tells the truth about Zelenskyy saying:

Zelenskyy is furious that America, whose taxpayers have financed “his” war, did not yet include him in the first diplomatic efforts with Russia. But this is not all about Zelenskyy, fortunately. It most absolutely stands to reason that the peace talks, from the perspective of any historically successful diplomacy, must begin with the most powerful participant: Russia. This is Diplomacy 101. 

Well, Zelenskyy is out, and so too are the European nations.  They have nothing to offer, and their eternal bickering is counterproductive.  But now they're scrambling to appear consequential promising to come up with their own plan, spending more money on Ukraine, sending more equipment and even saying they're going to put boots on the ground. It's all CO2. If they believed saving Ukraine was so important, they should have done that three years ago when it would have meant something.

This is Putin’s war, and his excuses for starting it are pathetic, as I've already shown. And none of this could have happened if it wasn’t for Joe Biden stealing the election via massive voter fraud because he gave Putin carte blanche for supplying energy to Europe when he shut down all the drilling, and even started buy oil from Venezuela. That funded Putin’s war.

However, that wouldn’t have been a problem if Europe’s leaders hadn’t gone insane, aka, green, buying into the global warming lies. They’re either stupid or crazy.

If the Ukrainian government hadn’t been one of, if not the most corrupt governments in Europe, they could have easily provided for adequate defenses to thwart any Russian invasion. And if there are all these wealth building natural resources there, as is being reported, why didn’t they develop them before and become a very wealthy nation, capable of buying or building a huge defense capability that would have thwarted any invasion?

Russia has been at it since 2014 they had to know it was coming, and Putin would have known those defensive capabilities were in place, and as a result, this would have never happened. But you can’t corruptly line your pockets and meet the needs of the nation at the same time, and it seems perfectly clear that’s what has been happening all these years.

From the beginning my view is this is Europe’s problem, let them fix it or not, if they don’t it’s on them. If they do, it’s still on them, we have no skin in this game. If you’re a moral person you must feel compassion for the people of Ukraine, the same people who suffered the death of millions at Stalin’s hands, but if you’re a rational person, you must realize this isn’t our fault, and Ukraine is lost, Russia is in trouble, Europe isn't a nation it's a continent filled with conflicted nations, all of whom behind closed doors admit this war is lost, and needs to end, and the only one who can do that is Donald Trump, and he will not allow Zelenskyy, his corrupt government, or the stupid leaders of Europe to interfere, or he'll just walk away and let them play this mess out for as long as they like. We're going to take our marbles and go home.

One more thing. As a result of Trump’s views that the Russo/Ukrainian War isn’t our problem nor is it our responsibility, that it’s Europe’s problem and they can fix it or not, and we don’t care what they do, what they say or think because they don’t count, it seems clear to me he’s been reading my articles in P&D. Waddayathink?

P&D Geopolitics Edition

By Rich Kozlovich

Things are really getting stirred up because the world is now coming to grips with the insanity of leftist thinking, but their still socialists at heart, and what I see is a world filled with cognitive dissonances.  So, when you read how the "right" is taking over in Europe, dismiss that.  The "right" is Europe is like the RINO's in America, only more left. 

On the international scene Sweden is taking a hard stance over damage to Baltic sea cable and I'm guessing they're going to get harder as time goes by an more issues.  

France's problem is ....they're French, and somehow think they're going to go to war with America over Greenland.  Their country is being crushed by illegals, and they're Muslims, I do wish they'd say it.  They can't even set up a government that's not getting dumped on a regular basis in order to govern themselves, and they want to govern what America does? And they didn't even have to say that in German. Imagine that. 🤣

France has an ally in the UK government.  The  Royal Navy decided to rename submarine HMS Agincourt in order to make the French all happy again....as if that's possible, but they don't seem to think appointing someone who is an American hating far leftist, and if reports are correct, corrupt, as their ambassador, AKA, the  ‘Prince of Darkness’ Peter Mandelson.   

They think voters have no rights unless they're illegals.  The also think the taxpaying public should allow their tax collectors paid days off to promote LGBTQ+ ideology, but in order to expand welfare, they can't afford defense spending, yet at the same time Europe Is Putting the Brakes on Gender Interventions, “The UK has now banned puberty blockers—probably will ban cross-sex hormones too."  Talk about cognitive dissonance.  But there's hope the public is now getting outraged over these monstrous wolves devouring their children, and are in favor of restoring the death penalty.  There's no recidivism after that.

There are serious concerns Britain will survive, and given Farage's unwillingness to address the Muslim rape situation in the UK!  I'm not sure they will, and like France and England, Germany is a mess,  but like France is going to send troops to Greenland and Ukraine, Germany may send troops to Ukraine.  France will have some extra troops now since al their former colonies in Africa have kicked them out in favor of the Russians and Chinese.  That's gong to be interesting to watch.

Russia has been deploying N. Korean troops, that now can't be denied, and due to them being used as cannon fodder he needs more and North Korea is gong to send them.  I guess he Putin can't complain calling it an escalation if France, Germany, Poland and the rest send troops also?  Here's an interesting insight on Ukraine from within.

The UN wants the world to adopt a digital ID system, and ya just can't make this stuff up, to combat climate change.  What Will You Do When You Can’t Buy or Sell Anything on the Internet Without Your UN-Mandated Digital Identity Chip?

China's government is vile, murdering and corrupt system filled with crimes against humanity, and this issue over Panama isn't about Panama, it's about s about China, and no one could possibly make this up. South Africa a murderous corrupt tyrannical government that's stripped all the with farmers from the farms and starved miners to death has accused Israel of starving people.  

Brazil got the message, and is setting up a reception center for deportees, but Brazil is still being ruled by central planning socialists, and their economy shows it. 

P&D Geopolitics Edition: Russia

By Rich Kozlovich

 

I get irritated over so many articles that claim Russia's economy is growing alluding to the idea all is fine, and I have no idea where that comes from, over 30 percent of their budget is defense spending, and Russian industry still can't supply their military or meet the needs of their civilian population. 

 

When I read, analyze, and write about anything I start with this foundational truth: Everything is the basics.  Most things aren't as complicated as they're presented.  They all have root foundations to them and that's what has to be identified.  If what I'm reading violates "the basics" I know it's wrong, and all I have to do is gather sufficient information to explain why it's wrong.

 

Ekaterina Zolotova is one of the writers a Geopolitical Futures, and I think she's excellent, posted this subscription article, "The Russian economy will be bad in 2025, at least according to Russian citizens", saying the Russian people are not confident about their economy for the upcoming year.  With international sanctions for Russian aggression in Ukraine, and Russia's leaders inability to restructure their economy from an economy based on selling energy resources, to a finished product economy, they are incapable of meeting the needs of their civilian population, and the military. 

Think about this.  America has supplied massive amounts of military hardware to Ukraine, and others, to the detriment of America's ability to defend the nation, and now it's been reported America's ability to replace that material, rearm the American military, and create as stockpile will take years under the current system.  If America can't do it easily, Russia can't do it at all.  Which is what should be expected of a central planning economic system, all of which are always stunning stupid, and run by ideologically driven economic retards. 

 

They've failed to build an industrial base that can provide their army with their needs, actually buying military hardware from.... get this..... North Korea, and Iran.  How bad is that?  And worse yet, they brought in at least 10,000 N. Koreans to fight in their army, and they've been used as cannon fodder.  Some of them committing suicide to avoid capture in fear of what would happen in retaliation to their families in N. Korea for surrendering.  Why would they do that.  Because Putin's afraid of forcing his own population into the meat grinder the Ukraine War has become and potentially creating massive resistance to his rule.  

 

Russia will win in Ukraine, sort of, and it will be a massive loss to Russia.  The world's second army hasn't been able to beat the world's 22nd army in over two years.  They can't manufacture their own military hardware, they can't field their army with their own citizens, and the only reason they will win is because Ukraine is running out of people, along with the fact Zelenskyy and his cabal are totally corrupt and have no credibility, even with their own people.  I will say I am impressed with those who remain and are still fighting even though they must know it's a lost cause. 

 

After this is over, Russia will find they have no credibility, they can't afford to rebuild all the infrastructure they've destroyed, the population they hoped to absorb into the Russian population to help against their demographic time bomb is now either dead or fled the nation, and more will flee, giving Europe the manpower they claimed they needed justifying bringing in all these Muslim migrants ....the vast majority of whom are on welfare.... and they will suffer economically, no matter what deals are struck. 

 

Is it possible there will be a deal to save Ukraine in some fashion?  If anyone can broker such a deal I think it's Trump, and if Ukraine does continue to exist, that will further erode Russian, and especially Putin's credibility.  One thing is clear though, Putin's ruling class is committed to the idiotic idea that NATO wants to attack Russia, at least that's what they're promoting to the Russian population, whether they believe it or not, in order to justifying continuing their  military expenditures, and that's as far as the eye can see. 

 

One final thought.  Failed Russian leaders do not fare well, so, do you know why the Soviets didn't kill Khrushchev after they dethroned him?  I believe it was because during his reign there were attempts to overthrow him and when they failed, he didn't kill his adversaries.   And if I remember correctly, some remained in the government.  After the Stalin mass murdering depredations I think that shocked them, and Khrushchev lived out the rest of his life comfortably.

 

However, Putin has been a murderous thug, and anything less than a total occupation of Ukraine is a failure.  It's my view there will be an attempt to overthrow him, as I'm sure there's a Stauffenberg cabal in their government, and their military, and if he's overthrown, I think he will fall prey to a major accident, or have a major accident that avoids an overthrow.  Afterward  there will be a massive restructuring of their government, and their military, but will there be a massive restructuring of their thinking?  

 

Who knows, they're Russian, and Russia is a "hordesland" nation, hence their historical goal of conquering smaller nations at their borders to be barriers to attack.  While in times past that was understandable, but today, that's paranoia, unfortunately and that paranoia is almost inbred in Russians.  

 

P&D Geopolitics Issue

By Rich Kozlovich 

Over the years I've written a lot about China because I've read a lot about China, and I think Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies published in 1997 had a lot to do with perking my interest there, and more so his views on why patterns keep repeating in so many different societies worldwide. 

China's history is large, complicated, and well studied by the Chinese.  I've often said those who've read much about China's history often know what they're going to do, and while not always, most of the time why.  It's just absolutely no one knows when or where they're going to do it.   

Nothing about China is ever as it appears, including their economy.  Their human rights record is abysmal, their conduct with their neighbors is appalling, and internationally illegal. 

While all the economists, pundits, and politicians were lauding China's economy the bug man was saying it's all smoke and mirrors, for almost 20 years now, and it's become obvious that's true to the experts as well. Imagine that.  Think about this.  If the bug man could see that almost 20 years ago, how could the highly educated and knowledgeable experts not see it?

On October 26, 2024 John Mauldin published his weekly Thoughts From the Front Line with this piece, Broken China noting the growth and the transition to the lack of growth and why, their massive debt, their banking system that's in effect a department of the government, their property development default issues, their centralized economic schemes, their demographic problems and the housing issues:

“China has a bigger problem lurking behind all those empty apartments: even more homes that developers already sold but have not finished building. By one conservative estimate, that figure is around 10 million apartments.“…......One recent estimate, from the research firm Rhodium Group, put the real estate sector’s entire domestic borrowings, including loans and bonds, at more than $10 trillion, of which only a tiny portion have been recognized.”

The real issue in China is the CCP's desire to remain in control at all costs:

........maintaining the party’s power is always top priority in a Communist system. To some degree, this requires keeping the population happy and comfortable. Hungry people, even relatively uncomfortable people, are generally less cooperative (note sarcasm). But if push comes to shove, regime preservation comes first. Xi’s predecessors demonstrated that with the “Cultural Revolution” and later Tiananmen Square.

All this is going to reduce willingness to invest in China, and this new N. Korea and Russia embrace is an illusion.  They're all going broke.  N. Korea is working overtime to provide military equipment Russia needs and is incapable of producing themselves, which I think is a long term tell on Russia's state of affairs, along with the fact were seeing what was considered to be the number two military power in the world unable to defeat the number 22 military power in the world for over two years and a half years.  

Communist Cuba's entire power grid has collapsed. After Russia stopped funding Cuba in the 80's and Venezuela wasted all their money supporting socialist nations, and went broke, Cuba had to rely on it's own resources, and they failed.  Their taxpayer base is pretty much non existent, and they're not only lacking energy, they're lacking all the basics, including food. 

Repairing their grid is going to be more than difficult since they didn't even create it in the first place, the Russians created it in the early 1970's, and they never properly maintained it after 1980 when the Russians turned off the tap and the Soviet Union collapsed, and the US embargo made it difficult to get material, but I think that's way over played.  It's estimated it will take $10 billion dollars to bring it up to snuff, and that's the equivalent of  "10 percent of the country’s gross domestic product".  And they don't have it.   It will be interesting to see if Russia, China, Iran, or N. Korea come to their rescue, especially since Cuba is such a strategically  important nation.   But is irritating the United States with such a smoke and mirrors game worth ten billion dollars to them?

How about converting to solar?  Well, they're incapable of creating such a system, and what private enterprise with that capability would be willing to invest in Cuba, as they're notorious for nationalizing businesses.

Russian, China, and all the rest of that cabal may throw some money at them to infuriate the American war hawks, but that's all smoke and mirrors, they can't afford Cuba now any more than they could afford Cuba decades ago, and it's much worse now.  The more they throw away supporting Cuba, the sooner they go broke.  The left screams about Batista, but under him Cuba was better off than many European nations at that time.  Was he a thug?  Sure, but compared to the horrors the Castro cabal imposed on Cubans he was a humanitarian.

Cuba is unfixable unless they overthrow the communists and embrace America, and that goes for Venezuela also, but it's not happening no matter how their nation is swirling down the sewer being turned into a criminal controlled state, just like Haiti, and Cuba will end up the same way. 

There's all this scary talk about BRICS, and again, I think it's all smoke and mirrors, as  Antonia Colibasanu notes: 

For leaders such as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, the annual BRICS summit is an excellent opportunity to present a vision of a world in which the United States does not lead. And yet, each summit confirms that the grouping has no function other than to promote lofty rhetoric and symbolic gestures.

They want to create an economic system to overcome the American dollar, and America's ability to impose restrictions on trade with countries who like Russia attacked Ukraine, and those who support them.   But these are all economic losers, and guess what?  They have no idea how to do it.  There was a lot of rhetoric but no new economic multilateral model offered that could possibly match what already exists, and the potential for mutual beneficial cooperation is a dream, kind of like a nightmare, and one thing I think all these countries have come away with is the understanding BRICS isn't about mutually beneficial multinational cooperation, it's all about what's beneficial for China and Russia, and mostly China, and the question is does Putin grasp that, or is it he's in so much trouble over his invasion of Ukraine, he has no choice but to embrace this folly.  One more thing.  If they actually did work something out, who's currency would they use?   

Did you know there was an Organization of Turkic states? Yeah, me neither, and before all this it didn't really matter, but for the first time the met this last weekend in Istanbul. Okay, so what?  Well, no one's saying it so I will.  Supposedly this is all about industry, science, technology, and innovation, and I'm sure it was, but I believe there's a behind the curtain factor here.  This is a push against Russia, or at least a warning.  Why? Look who the members are, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan with Hungary and Turkmenistan as observers.  Most former Soviet satellites who very often are going their own way whether Putin likes it or not, and Turkey is playing a dangerous cat and mouse game with the west and with Russia. 

Turkey is part of NATO, but not the European Union, and wants to play both sides in this Russo/Ukrainian War.

Turkey is asking to be fully "admitted in the Russian-Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, where it is a dialogue partner, and to BRICS, while successfully contending with the Iranian (actually another Turk) Ali Khamenei and the Saudi Muhammad bin Salman for the leadership of the Islamic ecumene and claiming the spiritual leadership of the Organisation of Turkish States. Turkey is whatever it needs to be. Turkish, Muslim and Asian, but also European and Western. Part of the developed world, but also part of the Global South. A strategic component of the American Empire, but also a potentially lethal threat to the superpower’s hegemony. In essence, Turkey is itself and its interests. And it is in the light of this banal reality that Ankara will calibrate its moves in the Ukrainian game".

In the end Turkey want's to crush the US, enfeeble Russia, and become the overriding power in the Middle East.  That's not going to happen, because Turkey is a mess and no one trusts anything Erdogan does or says. 

P&D Geopolitics Edition: China and Victoria Herczegh

By Rich Kozlovich 

Editor's Note: The two articles cited are Geopolitical Futures subscription articles and to read them you must subscribe, which I highly recommend.  So for now you will have to take my word for describing what she's saying, or not, as it pleases you.  RK

The four factors of geopolitics are, geographics, demographics, economics, and the most elusive of them all, the happiness factor.  The first three are definable.  The last is indefinable, or if you like, unending re-definable, since what constitutes happiness varies depending on what's happening in a population.  

In Ukraine, happiness would be the end of the war, and that's the most singular happiness factor in their culture.  In nations at peace and economically prosperous there is no singular happiness factor, and what constitutes happiness is all over the map, but for the most part Machiavelli defined it best.  Happiness for the privileged is to be able to maintain their privileges, and grow them if possible.  For the masses it's simple, the masses want security.  The ability to house, clothe, and feed their families in safety.  China provides neither for either of them, because the concept of individual God given rights is a totally alien concept in their foundational social paradigms. 

On September 20th, Victoria Herczegh published this piece, China’s New Revitalization Program, discussing how outside their coastal region China has some serious economic challenges.  She went on to describe all the central planning going on in China to revitalize these impoverished geographic sectors of China.   But it's based on central planning, which has always been the curse of economic policies, and in this case, that will be the cause of the failure for these polices.  

But central planning isn't the only foundational cultural problem the people of China face.  China's hierarchy and most of their population are ethnic Han, and the periphery is made of the other ethnic groups who hate the Han, and truth be told, I have no doubt the Han could care less what happens to them.

Victoria agreed saying:

Your observation is correct, the central government and the well-to-do Han Chinese population in general doesn't truly care about minorities. All there is are promises, and the occasional move to 'show that the leadership loves and cares about everyone in the country' - this is actually the slogan which accompanies the government's latest effort of giving cash handouts to those living in extreme poverty. However, Xi and his government has to realize eventually that to have peace in the country, they need people living on the periphery to be content with their lives. This is something that previous governments have also struggled with, and despite 'common prosperity' being on top of Xi's current agenda, it just seems to be more and more out of reach as other structural problems are piling up. 

The fact is China's central planning is being conducted by economic incompetents, as is true of all leftist, socialist governments, and this is going to fail just as everything they're doing for the rest of the nation is failing. China's economy is nothing short of smoke and mirrors, and all trade with them should be cut off as it was before Nixon and Kissinger screwed everything up and saved them.

Victoria followed up with a piece on China's military sabre rattling, which appeared on October 4th, "China Charts a New Path", noting their unprecedented military posturing in the South China Sea, even deploying their three carriers in order to intimidate all their neighbors because they're finding the world just can't trust them and their economic chicanery is catching up to them.  

Now the "United States, Australia, Japan and the Philippines, were joined by New Zealand for the first time for naval drills", letting them know they're not impressed, nor will the piracy they're practicing against foreign ships, including fishing vessels, be tolerated.   Recently a "Japanese warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait for the first time.....accompanied by vessels from Australia and New Zealand as it crossed the waterway, which separates Taiwan and mainland China. The ships were likely on their way to joint drills in the South China Sea."   China didn't like it, but did nothing about it except to lodge a protest.   How far that will go remains to be seen, but there are realities that must be embraced, because nothing is ever as it appears in China.  

The first aircraft carrier they developed in China was based  on 25 year old Russian technology, which other than tanks, has never been very good, but while aircraft carriers and tanks have been the backbone of military effectiveness since WWII, well, that's over!  They will still have a role, but the future is in drones and lasers, and any nation can build them and they're far more affordable than tanks and carriers.  If Iran is the production source for Russian drones, and it is, then anyone can make them.

 

I also doubt these newer carriers are all that much better, since the only technology they have has for the most part been stolen, especially from the US.  Break out technology, which usually means rowing against the current, isn't well tolerated by communists or central planners.

All this sabre rattling is nothing more than a dumb mob like play that can only cause kick back, and it is, and from every nation bordering the South China Sea, and Xi and his cabal are too stupid to realize that's a lost cause.  However, I think this is a good thing for the rest of the world.  It's now becoming obvious China intends to dominate the world by any means possible, no matter how illegal, how vile, or how corrupt it may be.  An insanely delusional goal since they can't even create their own internal economy, their demographic pyramid is a mess, and they're broke. 

 

Now it's impossible for all these invertebrate "leaders" of the world's governments to justify what China's doing, and they're starting to resist China's overtures.   And if Trump is back in office, this meteorite like flame will burn itself out when he imposes massive tariffs on China, and I believe that's what he will do because in many ways Trump reminds me of me, and I would do everything in my power to economically crush the entire Axis of Aggression, China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and any other nation that allies with them.  

 

All too often the Smoot-Hawley Tariff bill is cited showing how tariffs are a disaster, but this isn't 1930 and the world's economic system then isn't the world's economic system now.   I keep coming back to this question.  If tariffs are so bad and hurt the economy, why then do all these countries keep putting them onto American products?   

 

Another question I keep asking is why is it China did so well economically, in spite of the fact they can't create their own national market in order to survive?  Because their economy is export based, but it's still all smoke and mirrors, and just like junk bonds, they take big risks in order to create wealth but those risks are unstable against catastrophic adversity. 

Let's get this right, they all, and I mean all, need us, and we don't need them.  There are six reasons why.   We can feed ourselves, fuel ourselves, arm ourselves, defend our selves, create our own internal market, and we can actually pay off the nation debt by liquefying some of the 150 trillion dollars in assets held by the federal government.  No other country in the world can do all six.  We can, we win.

 

Every military strategy ever devised was perfect.  Until they met the enemy and they had a perfect military strategy also, and it always turns out neither was perfect.  But the one who won was the one who adapted quickly and changed to meet unanticipated challenges.  It's my estimation that Trump most likely excels in that better than any world leader in existence, and if elected, he will have the foundational resources to make it happen.

 

I know I've said this often, but it's always worth repeating.  Historians who specialize in historical cycles, all of whom write books that make your eyes roll back into your head, all agree on the fact we're coming to the end of a historical cycle, and all end cycles are filled with economic downturns and violence.  We're now seeing it taking place worldwide.

 

I believe there's a worldwide depression on the horizon and many of the world's nations are going to Balkanize into smaller states, including Europe, as that's their natural foundational social paradigm, and I'm convinced it will happen in China and Russia, both of which are facing huge demographic issues.