By Rich Kozlovich Tags: The World's Nine Orders
Most of what I'm offering here is from Geopolitical Futures, a subscription site, to which I highly recommend subscribing. Since I can't link the information you will have to take my word for what's being offered here..... or not... just as it pleases you.
It turns out Ukraine is launching drones from inside Russia. I think that's profound and
provocative, as it means a lot more is going on than is being reported inside Russia and the surrounding countries many of them former Soviet Union countries. Armenia is seeking membership in the EU, potentially forgoing their strategic partnership with Moscow, which their economy can't afford. But it's another thorn in Putin's side.
These new inside Russia drone attacks would seemingly force the Russian military to start focusing on
the central Asian nations, which really adds to their demographics problem. And now Kazakhstan is asking Putin to
freeze the war. Why? Because Ukraine's attacks are hindering
their ability to export
oil.... and it gets even more interesting. It turns out Chevron has
talked to Trump about this. Why?
Chevron has a 50% stake in
Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field and 15% of the Caspian Pipeline
consortium. As I've watched what's been going
on in Central Asia for the last couple of years it seems to me Central Asian nations are going to be
a thorn
in Russia's side, in spite of their claim they want good relations with
Russia, they have their own interests, and Russia's aggression again Ukraine isn't their issue. What's their issue?
Oil and economics, and that's what drives the world's problems. Then followed by ideology, often offered as an excuse over oil and economics.
Science doesn't grow in a vacuum, it grows like a virus, constantly
expanding and morphing into new forms. Starting at least 25 years ago, I took the
position drones and lasers were the future of warfare, and was generally
laughed at. For many years I was an avid science fiction reader, and
many science fiction writers are scientists who have access to
information the rest of us are unaware of, and often times they include that kind of information in their writing; expanding and extrapolated the information into future
possibilities. They included stuff about drones, lasers, power
generation, etc., and it impacted my thinking making me pay attention to
the development of these things.
Drones are here, and war will be dramatically changing from
this point on, as they're going to become cheaper to manufacture,
smaller, lighter, more deadly. Laser weapons are already being used in
some form or other and at some point they'll be small enough and
powerful enough to be positioned in drones, and even in satellites
powered by solar energy. We're seeing the beginning of a massive shift
in power, and it will grow. Make no mistake, space exploration is all about the militarization of space, not bases on the Moon or Mars, and has been since the launch of Sputnik.
All this is another drag on their forces, and now North Korea is sending another 30,000 troops to fight in Ukraine as "well as more ballistic missile launchers". There's a lot of corrupt chicanery by Russia going on over this issue of foreign "recruits" as Zimbabwe Investigates Recruiting Pipeline to Russian Army. Other Russian recruiting schemes have been uncovered in Kenya, South Africa, India, and most recently Peru. Ukrainian officials say at least 1,700 Africans have been conscripted into service with the Russian army how
effective they would be is debatable, as even Russian troops average lifespan is just 30 minutes.
Everything is about geographics demographics and economics, and Russia is facing a crisis in each of those categories. Russia has three unsolvable problems.... at least at this point. It's a massive nation and hard to control. Their economy is based on central planning. They're running out of bodies to thrown at Ukraine, and it's the part of the demographics pyramid that makes the the next generation, and supports internal economics. That is a long term problem.
It will take 20 years before they can start to fix their demographic pyramid, and another twenty years to fix it entirely. That's presuming those who are left from this generation will want children. Since the birth rate in Russia before this war was already so low it was predicted by 2040 the ethnic Russia population would be a minority in their own nation. As things are now, I can't imagine that changing, and ethnic Russians may well be a minority soon.
Things are getting so desperate for Putin and his cabal of sycophants they're now ... once again....talking the use of nuclear bombs. I've been following this nuclear
theme from the beginning, and in the beginning I chuckled as it seemed
clear even Putin isn't that stupid.....but things have changed. Putin
has demonstrated three things. One, he really is that stupid. Two, he will do anything
to stay in power. Three, he might actually succumb to the urging of some
of his sycophant supporters to nuke Ukraine to finally destroy them, and threaten Europe so he can continue to play the bully boy. I think
the last sentence is the key point in so many of the articles analyzing his actions.
His nuclear threats to Europe are being taken seriously, and now:
"Turkey will deploy five F-16 fighters to Estonia to participate
in NATO's Baltic Air Policing Mission between August and November.
The aircraft will patrol the airspace over Latvia, Lithuania and
Estonia, which lack their own fighter jets."
Poland is preparing to vote on a full state of war readiness, which would:
"expedite the early deployment of
troops, preparation of critical infrastructure and reception of allied
forces. It would also simplify the implementation of defense projects
related to the development of roads, railways, ports and airports."
What I really find confusing is his efforts lend military support to other nations like Mali. He can't win in his own back yard and guess what, his forces in Mali were "ineffective" against Islamic militant groups. Imagine that.
The next question about Putin himself; a leader who is living in a bunker makes one wonder just how secure Putin is after this massive....and I mean massive..... "special military operation" failure? In the past I've said I believe in the background there's a Claus
von Stauffenberg cabal in his military, and I think there's support by
government officials. I'm convinced he thinks there is also, which is
why he's living in a bunker.
Absolutely nothing he envisioned is working, at all! His
confidence level is in the toilet right along with his economy. His
resources are being depleted, including his demographic resources, he’s
scared, he's confused, he's desperate, and he knows if he's overthrown
he's dead, which may drive him to think he can have just a "small"
nuclear military operation. If he decides to go the nuclear route I
think he will be overthrown.
But there's hope. Trump is sending Kushner and Witkoff off to Moscow, seemingly in an attempt to negotiate a peace. Given their efforts involving Iran, I really don't think anyone should get all happy and optimistic.
America is the only nation in the world capable of all six. Will there be serious issues? Sure, but the nation is capable of surviving intact, even if diminished. The world is not only in a domestic state of flux, it’s in a geopolitical state of flux looking for an anchor for their decision making and direction. When the new historical cycle begins things will be different, when that begins and how different it will be no one can say, but it’s my belief there are a lot of existing nations that will be broken up into smaller states, not an uncommon occurrence throughout history.