What I'm Reading: Russo/Ukrainian War

By Rich Kozlovich Tags: The World's Nine Orders 

Most of what I'm offering here is from Geopolitical Futures, a subscription site, to which I highly recommend subscribing. Since I can't link the information you will have to take my word for what's being offered here.....  or not...  just as it pleases you. 

  

It turns out Ukraine is launching drones from inside Russia.  I think that's profound and provocative, as it means a lot more is going on than is being reported inside Russia and the surrounding countries many of them former Soviet Union countries.  Armenia is seeking membership in the EU, potentially forgoing their strategic partnership with Moscow, which their economy can't afford.  But it's another thorn in Putin's side.   

• Ukraine destroys warehouse of 'Russia's Amazon' in huge strike on Moscow - as Putin's war hits home 
• Ukraine graveyard for Russian ships.

These new inside Russia drone attacks would seemingly force the Russian military to start focusing on the central Asian nations, which really adds to their demographics problem.  And now Kazakhstan is asking Putin to freeze the war.  Why?  Because Ukraine's attacks are hindering their ability to export oil.... and it gets even more interesting.  It turns out Chevron has talked to Trump about this.  Why?  

 

Chevron has a 50% stake in Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field and 15% of the Caspian Pipeline consortium.   As I've watched what's been going on in Central Asia for the last couple of years it seems to me Central Asian nations are going to be a thorn in Russia's side, in spite of their claim they want good relations with Russia, they have their own interests, and Russia's aggression again Ukraine isn't their issue.  What's their issue?  

 

Oil and economics, and that's what drives the world's problems.  Then followed by ideology, often offered as an excuse over oil and economics.

 

Science doesn't grow in a vacuum, it grows like a virus, constantly expanding and morphing into new forms.  Starting at least 25 years ago, I took the position drones and lasers were the future of warfare, and was generally laughed at.  For many years I was an avid science fiction reader, and many science fiction writers are scientists who have access to information the rest of us are unaware of, and often times they include that kind of information in their writing;  expanding and extrapolated the information into future possibilities.  They included stuff about drones, lasers, power generation, etc., and it impacted my thinking making me pay attention to the development of these things.

 

Drones are here, and war will be dramatically changing from this point on, as they're going to become cheaper to manufacture, smaller, lighter, more deadly.  Laser weapons are already being used in some form or other and at some point they'll be small enough and powerful enough to be positioned in drones, and even in satellites powered by solar energy.   We're seeing the beginning of a massive shift in power, and it will grow.  Make no mistake, space exploration is all about the militarization of space, not bases on the Moon or Mars, and has been since the launch of Sputnik.

 

All this is another drag on their forces, and now North Korea is sending another 30,000 troops to fight in Ukraine as "well as more ballistic missile launchers".    There's a lot of corrupt chicanery by Russia going on over this issue of foreign "recruits" as Zimbabwe Investigates Recruiting Pipeline to Russian Army.  Other Russian recruiting schemes have been uncovered in Kenya, South Africa, India, and most recently Peru. Ukrainian officials say at least 1,700 Africans have been conscripted into service with the Russian army how effective they would be is debatable, as even Russian troops average lifespan is just 30 minutes.

 

Everything is about geographics demographics and economics, and Russia is facing a crisis in each of those categories.  Russia has three unsolvable problems.... at least at this point.  It's a massive nation and hard to control.  Their economy is based on central planning.  They're running out of bodies to thrown at Ukraine, and it's the part of the demographics pyramid that makes the the next generation, and supports internal economics.   That is a long term problem.  

 

It will take 20 years before they can start to fix their demographic pyramid, and another twenty years to fix it entirely.   That's presuming those who are left from this generation will want children.  Since the birth rate in Russia before this war was already so low it was predicted by 2040 the ethnic Russia population would be a minority in their own nation.   As things are now, I can't imagine that changing, and ethnic Russians may well be a minority soon.  

 

Things are getting so desperate for Putin and his cabal of sycophants they're now ... once again....talking the use of nuclear bombs.  I've been following this nuclear theme from the beginning, and in the beginning I chuckled as it seemed clear even Putin isn't that stupid.....but things have changed.  Putin has demonstrated three things.  One, he really is that stupid.  Two, he will do anything to stay in power.  Three, he might actually succumb to the urging of some of his sycophant supporters to nuke Ukraine to finally destroy them, and threaten Europe so he can continue to play the bully boy.  I think the last sentence is the key point in so many of the articles analyzing his actions.  

 

His nuclear threats to Europe are being taken seriously, and now:

 

"Turkey will deploy five F-16 fighters to Estonia to participate in NATO's Baltic Air Policing Mission between August and November. The aircraft will patrol the airspace over Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, which lack their own fighter jets."

 

 Poland is preparing to vote on a full state of war readiness, which would:

 

"expedite the early deployment of troops, preparation of critical infrastructure and reception of allied forces. It would also simplify the implementation of defense projects related to the development of roads, railways, ports and airports."

 

What I really find confusing is his efforts lend military support to other nations like Mali.  He can't win in his own back yard and guess what, his forces in Mali were "ineffective" against Islamic militant groups.  Imagine that.

  

The next question about Putin himself; a leader who is living in a bunker makes one wonder just how secure Putin is after this massive....and I mean massive..... "special military operation" failure?  In the past I've said I believe in the background there's a Claus von Stauffenberg cabal in his military, and I think there's support by government officials.  I'm convinced he thinks there is also, which is why he's living in a bunker. 

 

Absolutely nothing he envisioned is working, at all!  His confidence level is in the toilet right along with his economy.  His resources are being depleted, including his demographic resources, he’s scared, he's confused, he's desperate, and he knows if he's overthrown he's dead, which may drive him to think he can have just a "small" nuclear military operation.   If he decides to go the nuclear route I think he will be overthrown. 

 

But there's hope.  Trump is sending Kushner and Witkoff off to Moscow, seemingly in an attempt to negotiate a peace.  Given their efforts involving Iran, I really don't think anyone should get all happy and optimistic. 

P&D Geopolitics Edition

By Rich Kozlovich

Recently we saw where Russia's Putin, China's Xi, and India's Modi met at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization conference that drew:

"over 20 regional leaders and featured speeches that subtly rebuked US foreign policy. Xi urged members to reject "Cold War mentality" and "bloc confrontation," while Modi endorsed multilateralism and a larger global role for countries like India."

And then they all held hands and sang kumbaya declaring undying love and a feeling of "peace and stability between them" creating an alliance to stand against Trump's tariffs.  Which made great press and great opportunities for lots and lots of CO2 being expelled by talking heads, but it's a load of horsepucky.  

As for me, I just shook my head, rolled my eyes, and chuckled.  China wants to end the Cold War mentality?  Really?  By whom?  Certainly not China based on all their actions to date.  And Modi wants the world to embrace multilateralism, whatever the heck that really means.  I'm betting he defines that as meaning they want Russia, China, India and the U.S. to work together as "equals", allowing the three of them to rape America and share in the wealth equally, leaving America dying.  At least they're consistent. 

These three nation have hated each other for centuries.  It's part of their foundational social paradigm, and for good reason as they're been at odds militarily for centuries. 

Recently China and India were exchanging fire in the Himalayas.  Why in the world would anyone go to war over mountains that have no economic value, yet China keeps provoking India over .... mountains!  They don't care about owning mountains, they care about intimidating their neighbors.  China has been playing the bully boy role throughout all of South East Asia, and is still doing so in the South China Sea demanding control of international waters and even attacking Philippine fishing vessels in what is clearly Philippine's waters. 

1. Deadly Incident at Sea Heightens China-Taiwan Tensions -Beijing is seizing on the death of two Chinese fishermen to exercise greater control around Taiwan's Kinmen islands, raising the risk of more dangerous encounters in the area.
2. Chicoms overfish, leave trash all around South America's waters -- and it's worse than it looks - The United Nations says they've done a bang-up job depleting 90% of the world's fishing stocks with their illegal poaching. So much for China's lip service to the environment.

This must be what Xi means when he meant when at this conference he:

"...........unveiled the Global Governance Initiative, a five-point plan calling for adherence to international law, support for multilateralism, rejection of double standards and equal participation in global governance regardless of a country's size or power."  Xi also proposed creating an SCO Universal Center for Countering Security Challenges and Threats and establishing an SCO Development Bank to deepen security and economic cooperation. 

In short, he's saying I'm broke, and I need access to other people's money, and I'll be saying anything it takes to con others into this scheme so I can continue to exploit the nations around me.  China's  spending massive amounts of dollars they don't have on their military and their economy is heading down the tubes, especially after their years long real estate crash, that's not going away.

In April of last year the CCP implemented:

......more aggressive laws and policies that favor Chinese companies, especially its state-owned companies. Its new foreign relations and espionage laws, which went into effect last year, open the door to more protectionist meddling. As Michael House, a partner at Perkins Coie gently put it, “The current environment lends itself to more occasions where a regulator or someone in the government in China may choose to take action that is non-transparent.” The reality is the CCP can do whatever it wants. Just ask the folks at Bain & Co. and other US consultancies that China raided last year.

That was from an article at Mauldin Economics, and it confirms doing business with China is like taking a viper to bed.  

China is a nightmare, not only for the world, but even worse for the Chinese people.  These vile disgusting monsters are murdering people for their organs and persecuting anyone they deem "radical", such as the Falun Gong.  We've known about this for over 2o years, and we're still playing patty cake over economic issues with them.  

• China’s Children Scarred by CCP’s 25-Year Persecution of Falun Gong ‘The persecution really harms everyone, especially young children and teenagers,’ said a young Chinese man.  

After their Third Plenary Session of the Communist Party's Central Committee ended in July of 2024 the conclusion was, Xi was in charge, he will decide what goes on economically, internationally, and domestically, and anyone who didn't like it was in deep trouble because no disharmony will be tolerated.  "Days of balderdash, and untold pages of jabberwocky, just to say that."  But it's not appreciated in China, especially among the young.

China's economy is smoke and mirrors.  I've been saying that for years, in opposition to the conventional wisdom I might add, and everything being reported shows it's true.  

1. Geopolitical Futures reported that fear of U.S. secondary sanctions led several banks to stop accepting yuan payments from Russia. Why?
2. While publicly China still welcomes Russian business, they're more concerned about American business and work to avoid sanctions. Why? 
3. Would America care if China sanctioned American business? There would be some in the commercial sector that would, but overall, America wouldn't care.  Why?   

The answers to all these "why" questions?  We don't need them, they need us. 

China's spending massive amounts of dollars on their military they don't have.  Why?  Xi's not going to attack America, Japan, Philippines, or even Taiwan for that matter, no matter how much sabre rattling Xi might do, but India and Russia are doable.   Their economy is heading down the tubes, especially their real estate crash.  

Russia's in deep economic trouble,  and in no way can India replace their economic ties with the west with anything Russia can offer other than oil and gas, and any advantage that may bring will be offset with tariffs.  But even if they get all the energy they can use in order to manufacture goods, where do they sell them?  Neither Russia, China, India or any of the 20 nations at this summit can create their own internal markets large enough to stand alone.  

I've said this often and it needs to be said more than often.  There are six things an advanced industrialized nation must have in order to stand alone.  It must be able to feed itself, fuel itself, defend itself, arm itself, create it's own internal market, and pay off it's national debt.  The only advanced industrialized nation in the world capable of doing all six is the U.S. 

If these nations decide they have alternatives to the West.  Well good for them, let's see how well that works out. 

China and Russia have decided they need a pipeline going through Mongolia which would deliver "50 billion cubic meters of Russian gas per year via Mongolia for 30 years", but all the energy in the world will not resurrect a failing economy if they can't sell their goods to someone. 

U.S. imports from China are crashing and it's possible China's trade with Russia will soon surpass trade with America.  Good, losers trading from losing positions doesn't make winners, but something I've been watching the last few years is China's interest in investments in Kazakhstan, a former Soviet Republic where Russian influence has waned since the Russo/Ukraine war started, and to the tune of billions of dollars and over 6000 Chinese backed companies operating in that nation.  China and Belarus have recently developed a defense agreement.  A defense agreement right on Russia's border?  Imagine that!   Does anyone think all this gives Putin a warm and fuzzy feeling all over?

As I stated before, Russia's in deep economic trouble, and Russia cannot in any way offset India's economic reliance on the West.  

Nearly one third of Russian companies were unprofitable in the first half of 2025, the highest level since the pandemic..... the main drivers are a high key interest rate, rising costs and new tax rules. Coal mining, housing and utilities, transportation and scientific research companies were hit hardest.

Western sanctions have caused "17 coal-related enterprises to shut down due to Western sanctions and declining global prices"m and the "Ministry of Finance announced that it would hold auctions to attract 10 billion rubles ($124 million) in credit funds to cover the region's budget deficit and debt."  Worse yet, this major energy supplier is running out "of AI-95 gasoline in several regions.  Supplies have nearly vanished from Crimea and Trans-Baikal. Experts blamed supply disruptions and seasonal demand and said that if conditions persist, other regions may face shortages." This is more than seasonal demand issues.

Russia is fraught with supply chain issues with large numbers of companies saying they can't find supplies and no longer can access material from abroad due to sanctions and are trying to find material from Russian friendly nations.  But what happens when they get sanctioned? 

The foundation of the Russian economy is self destructing in order for Putin to continue his war with Ukraine, using up manpower and resources his nation needs to survive, and Russia's problems are metastasizing, as they've triggered a response they didn't anticipate with their aggression in Ukraine.  

Poland launched its largest military exercise of the year, Iron Defender-25, involving about 30,000 Polish and allied troops and 600 pieces of equipment. The drills, which run through September, will span much of the country, with a focus on operations near the Russian and Belarusian borders and at sea. They coincide with Collective Security Treaty Organization maneuvers in Belarus and Russia. Poland said the aim is to test interoperability under full-scale combat conditions, incorporating lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war.

Let's be clear, Russia's falling apart internally, and is facing a coalition of fifty countries condemning Russia and Putin, and Europe has found alternatives to Russia energy supplies.  Russia's running out of time.  Considering the size of Russia's military, and how little progress they've made against Ukraine, Russia has lost this war.  It's destroying their demographic pyramid, it's economy, and government stability, and the leadership knows it and fears the consequences of all that failure from an angry public.  Even in Russia that happens as we saw when the Soviet Union collapsed.   Russia's central bank says their economy is "in a dismal condition and its future outlook is bleak."

Putin is refusing to meet with Zelenskyy and demands.... demands mind you.... the right to "veto of any security guarantees or subsequent security assistance to Ukraine."  All the while continuing to strike "civilian targets", and it seems clear anything he may have agreed to with Trump in Alaska was a lie.  

As for Modi's multilateralism, he's blocked Azerbaijan's bid for full membership, citing its ties with Pakistan.  Wait, isn't Pakistan an ally of Russia and China? Wasn't it one of China's missile air defense systems that shot down an India military jet?  Remarkable, don't you think?

So much for ending the cold war mentality, bloc confrontations, adherence to international law, support for multilateralism, rejection of double standards and equal participation in global governance regardless of a country's size or power", and creating a kumbaya "multilateral" world.  And as time goes by the number of inconsistencies, divergences and outrages will multiply significantly because that's who they all are, that's who they always have been, and that's who they always will be.

P&D and The Week That Was

 Truth is the Sublime Convergence of History and Reality

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De Omnibus Dubitandum, (Everything is to be questioned!)

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This Link will take you to My Commentaries.

 

By Rich Kozlovich 

Well, the Big Beautiful Bill passed, and I've expressed my concerns and what I think the budget should be all about.  I didn't go far enough.  There's a lot of clabber from both sides, and believe it or not, both sides have valid arguments, both sides are lying, but the Democrats are so over the top with their usual emotional pontifications they win the Horsepucky of the Year Award, hands down.  

On Friday I posted this piece, Budgets, the National Debt, and We're Running Out of Time, and since I knew there was going to be a lot of commentaries about this budget I decided to add links to that article I deemed worth your time, from both sides.   But one regarding Medicare was particularly profound in my view because it highlights three important issues this bill on how to fix Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid before they collapse.  

It seems clear if Social Security isn't privatized it will take a huge tax increase to save it, Medicare will no longer be mostly free.  It also seems to me Medicare recipients who paid into the system, will soon have to start paying monthly premiums.  As for Medicaid, that's an anchor that's going to drag the nation down with politicians on both sides of the aisle virtue signally with self-righteous hand wringing and chest pounding.   At one point the Republican controlled Senate, with a 56/44 vote, actually refused to kick illegal aliens off Medicaid.  Three Republicans crossed over.  Are you shocked to know Susan Collins was one of them. 

• BELLY-UP—Medicare and Social Security Going Broke Ahead of Schedule - Final Word: Blind pundits only see rising taxes or cutting.  It’s not ‘time travel’; the clock is just running faster, but the frightening news is, America is fighting against the clock and losing. The long-feared insolvency of Medicare and Social Security just got a little closer....
• The 'Go-Broke Date' for Social Security Is Moved Up - Social Security and Medicare are heading toward financial trouble sooner than expected, according to new federal projections. The Treasury Department's latest reports show that Social Security's combined trust funds are now forecast to not contain enough money to pay full benefits in 2034—one year earlier than last year's estimate, Politico reports. Medicare's hospital insurance fund is set to be depleted in 2033, moving up its funding cliff by three years........

As more and more classified information is being found by Trump appointees, and it's shocking how much these agencies hid, and are still trying to hide.  People like "former FBI Director James Comey, CIA Director John Brennan, and DNI James Clapper worked together to purposely corrupt the Trump-Russia investigation in 2016 before Trump entered office."

• Report: Obama Was In On It – His Fingerprints are ALL OVER John Brennan’s post 2016 Election Intel Community Assessment on Bogus Trump-Russia Framing Scandal

The FBI  blocked an investigation into the 2020 "Chinese mail-in voting scam to protect Chris Wray who likely lied to Congress".  The DOJ is pursuing that and before all of this is over, and if there's any justice in the world, Wray, Comey, Brennan, and Clapper should all be heading to prison. After all, "no one is above the law."    (More here) But it gets better.  Those who corruptly went after Donald Trump filing false criminal charges against him are going to be exposed, as Senator Grassley is promising to name names.   

The Trump administration is purging the EPA which is long....long... overdue,  a full scale audit "of the SBA 8(a) program found over $550 million in contracts were linked to bribery and fraud schemes." 

Let me tell you about Wilson Tindi, DEI and due process.  Tindi is an illegal alien from Kenya.  A convicted felon, and registered sex offender who the state of Minnesota knowingly hired as an auditor rising to the "highest rank available in the state career civil service".  

Did you ever wonder why the left is so hot due process for illegals?  Because it's forever.  This article outlines how this has been going on with this guy since 2005, his criminal activity and the "due process" procedures, all of which he lost, and he's still here.  That's what the left's due process is all about, straining the system to make in impossible to deport illegal aliens.  If a man with his criminal record can't be deported, it's impossible to deport anyone easily.  I might also add so much of this would be impossible if not for the corrupt federal judges who are part of this story.  

University of Pennsylvania has been forced to apologize for robbing female athletes of winning titles promoting and allowing a man who calls himself Lia Thomas to compete against women, and have now stripped Thomas of his improperly earned titles.  In my opinion, this may have also deprived these women of financial opportunities, so not only the university, but university officials and Thomas need to be sued personally.  

Let's talk about Russia for a minute. Here's a map of Ukraine that Russia has now conquered, after over three and a half years, .... that's it, and Putin tells Trump Russia will never stop trying to conquer Ukraine.  

  

His economy is crashing, their agricultural harvests are shrinking, and due to sanctions only 16 nations are buying Russian grain.  Since the price of oil is dropping, and for reasons I don't understand the value of the ruble is strong, so Russia's gas revenues fell dramatically.  Russia's small business community is facing declines in sales, with the expected loss of revenue making it difficult to get loans, resulting in cuts to expansion and hiring.  The decline in small businesses is a bigger part of the story than is appreciated.

You can tell when a tree is starting to die because it no longer produces leaves on the upper branches, and each year the number of bare branches increases. It feels like the leaves have fallen off the upper branches of the country. Unknown

Putin's lost hundreds of thousands of young Russian men and is incapable of fielding his army without tens of thousands of North Korean "volunteers". He can't manufacture the military hardware he needs, and now Iran may not be able to supply him the drones he's been using.  Another high ranking officer has been killed, and I have to say I've never read where so many high ranking officers have been killed in a war as this one.

As for the blatantly stupid argument about Putin attacked Ukraine because he was afraid of NATO, and not blatant aggression, then perhaps they can explain to me why "Russia continues to illegally occupy about 20% of Georgian territory?"

In Tony Judt's book Post war, a History of Europe since 1945, Part Two, Chapter IX he goes into great detail about the Hungarian revolution and Czech resistance and the Soviet use of force to make sure they all stayed under Soviet control.  Nothing's changed except the names.  It's not about depth of defense, it's about conquest and power, it really is that simple, it's always been that simple, and it will always be that simple when dealing with Russia.  And everyone needs to get that.

Trump needs to understand even his negotiating skills, which are impressive, aren't going to make a difference.  We're already seeing his remarkable negotiations between Congo and Rwanda starting to come apart with disputes over interpretation, economics, and the continued violence by "proxy" groups.  I'm not expecting to see this agreement to hold.  For the sake of all these people who've suffered mighty for 30 years, I hope I'm wrong.  

Europe is a mess, and I've a lot of stored articles dealing with that, so more will be coming soon.  My conclusion is, and has been for a long time, Europe as we know is is doomed.  They did it to themselves, and it's going to get a lot worse.

And finally, Elon Musk is still at it, looking for attention.  First of all, the only third party to be successful in America is the Republican party, and an attempt to be a Ross Perot spoiler for political clout by backstabbing former allies isn't going to play well.  Nothing is in his favor.  His character, his actions, or his goals.  While Ross Perot could be criticized, his goals were deemed honorable.  Not so with Musk.   This "new party" is going nowhere, and any clout he will have will be in his ability to contribute heavily to politicians of his choice, and that may even end up to be a nothing burger. 

I've been busy this week with 12 commentaries of my own and 19 by others, and the six permanent links.  Have a great weekend, and best wishes to all those of honest heart and good will. 

Let's start out with this Quote of the Day.

My Commentaries

1. Budgets, the National Debt, and We're Running Out of Time
2. The Left is Bereft of Heft
3. The XYZ Factors of Organizations
4. Now, Back to the House
5. Who Raises A Banner That Says: I Stand For Consensus!
6. Is Aphorism Another Name For Humor and Snarkiness?
7. Elon is Just Being Elon. So, Who Cares?
8. Trump, the Federal Judiciary, and The Government of the United States
9. Slinging Sammy Baugh
10. International Asteroid Day
11. Is Zohran Mamdani Really the Anointed One? Part II
12. Let Me Get This Straight

Commentaries

1. The EPA Grows A Pair And Takes A Stand On Glyphosate By Josh Bloom
2. When Did Michelle Obama Turn into a Harridan? By Susan Daniels
3. Treasury Must Protect American Companies By Paul Driessen
4. Burning trash for energy, people and planet  By Paul Driessen
5. Boston Muslim Illegal Alien Councilwoman Replaces July 4th Before Going to Prison By Daniel Greenfield
6. A Radical Company is Paying Supreme Court Justices Millions  By Daniel Greenfield
7. Who Really Bombed a Damascus Church? By Daniel Greenfield
8. Democrats Gone Wild By Robin Itzler
9. Tomb of the Unknown Soldier Guards By Robin Itzler
10. Made in America: But check the label  By Robin Itzler
11. The 2030 Census and Making America Great Again By Robin Itzler
12. Revolutionary War Secrets And July 4th Trivia By Robin Itzler
13. Settler-Colonialist Zohran Mamdani Calls For "Seizing The Means Of Production" By Francis Menton
14. Since Upper-Income Taxpayers Finance the American Welfare State, Leftists Should Be Nice to Rich People, Part II By Dan Mitchell
15. Is the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Worth Supporting? By Dan Mitchell
16. Ohio Joins the Flat Tax Club By Dan Mitchell
17. What’s the Most Important Election of 2025?
18. Another Contestant for Politician of the Year By Dan Mitchell
19. Feds Fail to Offset Wind Turbine Eagle Kill By Craig Rucker

Permanent Links

1. 45 Communist Goals to Destroy America as Listed in the 1963 Congressional Record
2. My Seven Rules of Geopolitics
3. The John Boyd Legion of Honor
5. Former White House Advisor: “Trump to Release $150 Trillion Endowment”

 No matter what anyone says, you can’t marginalize the truth!  You can suppress it, you can ignore it, you can avoid it, you can attempt to undermine it, you can attempt to subvert it, you can attempt to organize against it, you can even laugh at it, but if we have the courage and the fortitude to stand and confront the lies, irrespective of the personal costs, the truth will stand the test of time, because truth and time are on the same side.

Constant as the North Star

 

The Hollywood Ten

Remember how outraged celebrities were believing that Putin and Trump were working together? Where is the outrage when Hollywood does the collusion?

Michael Flores Apr 09, 2024

“Donald Trump is committing Treason against The United States of America,” tweeted director Rob Reiner a few months back. “He has turned the world’s oldest Democracy into a wholly owned subsidiary of Vladimir Putin.”  A beneficiary of Hollywood’s chronic nepotism, Reiner was one of scores of celebrities accusing Trump of colluding with Russia.  Bill Maher sometimes knows better. Not this time. In a burst of faux patriotism, he tweeted, “Trump can’t demand that everyone stand for the flag if he colluded with a foreign gov’t to subvert the very democracy that flag represents.”

It has not always been like this. Not too long ago Tinseltown celebrated Hollywood’s fellow travelers, the ones who defiantly colluded with the Russia of Josef Stalin.  In 1947, the House Un-American Activities Committee held its first round of Hollywood hearings. The committee selected 45 industry people to query, most of whom were friendly, but 19 of whom were not.  Of those 19, eleven did testify but refused to answer questions, and Congress cited them for contempt. When playwright Bertolt Brecht fled to East Germany – who flees to East Germany? – the group passed into legend as the “Hollywood Ten.”

After two of the group, John Howard Lawson and Dalton Trumbo, were convicted, the others waived jury trials and were sentenced to up to a year in prison.

The “innocents” of Hollywood – Humphrey Bogart in the lead – were formed into a new “club.” This club, the Committee for the First Amendment, seemed fully unaware of who was doing the forming.

The Committee rallied to the cause of the Hollywood Ten, thinking the Ten mindless liberals like themselves. Bogart even argued at a meeting of the Hollywood 10 and their lawyers that they should be aggressive and everyone say they were party members, so what that wasn’t illegal and the lawyers told him it would help expose the legal system if they didn’t fight back and took the fifth. Bogart began to realize he was being used.

When Bogart realized what was actually happening, the sacrificing of the 10 to make the U.S. look bad, he was appalled by his own activism on their behalf, calling it “ill-advised, impetuous and foolish.”.......To Read More.... Much More

The 2024 Tax Hell Index

May 6, 2025 by Dan Mitchell @ International Liberty 

The 1841 Foundation has released a new version of the Tax Hell Index. And just like last year and in 2022, let’s see what nations qualified because of the combination of bad fiscal policy and low-quality governance. There is a tie for the world’s worst tax hell, So “congratulations” to Russia and Venezuela.

The Tax Hell Index mostly focuses on Europe and the Americas, which explains how some awful nations in Asia and Africa are not on the list.

I’m somewhat surprised that Romania is in the “risky” category, but I’m not shocked by Hungary since its policies are not good by European standards.

Some readers will be surprised to see Argentina tied for the third-worst tax hell, but the Index is based on 2023 data and President Milei did not take office until the end of that year.

So it will be interesting to see Argentina’s score in the next Tax Hell Index (and I’m also looking forward to how much that nation improves in Economic Freedom of the World and the Index of Economic Freedom).

Let’s hope the improvement is dramatic because Argentina is one of seven nations that has appeared in all four editions of the Tax Hell Index. Not exactly something to be proud about.

By the way, 10 countries ranked at “tax heavens,” with Ireland being the best of the best.

The United States was not among those nations, though it is a bit better than average. So lots of room for improvement, but I suspect America will get worse rather than better in future editions of the Index.

P.S. While I expect Argentina’s score to improve significantly, it will be very interesting to see what happens in Ukraine when the war ends. I don’t know when that will happen, but I’ll predict western nations will offer lots of aid for reconstruction. I fear that money will be wasted unless somehow it is used as leverage to improve Ukraine’s awful economic policy. But since foreign aid usually leads to more bad policy instead of good policy, it’s hard to be optimistic.

P&D Geopolitics Edition, Russia, Ukraine, and Donald Trump, Part III

Today the KGB, in all it's manifestations over the last 100 years, has now outlived communism and Russia is no longer a state with a security service, instead the security service has a state. 

By Rich Kozlovich, TagsP&D Geopolitics Edition: Russo/Ukrainian War, and Donald Trump, Putin

In December a Russian general was assassinated, and six days ago another Russian general was assassinated, very near Moscow, and it's not being done by the Russians, not their style when dealing with internal conflicts.  That's why they have gulags and work camps.  These were vehicle detonations and most likely done remotely.  

This might be viewed a small thing in the overall picture, but I see this in a different light.  I think it's a very large small thing, and is a foundational insight into the Russian military, their internal security is deteriorating, and I've stated in the past it seems likely to me there's a Claus von Stauffenberg cabal in their military.  As I read this I wondered if this isn't a subtle evidence of that being so, as it seems this required inside information.   Just a thought... as I said... subtle evidence. 

There are two camps in the Russian hierarchy, the war mongers who insist on fighting until total victory is attained, because like all criminals, they just can give up on the con.  They insistent on clinging to the fallacious argument NATO and Europe, with support from America, are now, and have been on the verge of attacking Russia.  The ridiculous "depth of defense" argument that's been used to justify their unwarranted attack on Ukraine by Russia.  I'll tell you what, we'll come back to that.

Then there's the group who sees reality and recognizes they need peace as a matter of practicality.  This was has cost them hundreds of thousands of young men who will no longer be around to contribute to their population, which has a serious demographic problem.  Ten years ago it was estimated by 2040 ethnic Russians would be a minority in their own nation.  That drop in the Russian ethnic demographic has now been speeded up - a lot.  Putin's insane war has put Russia's demographics in free fall.

Russia has seven defensive gaps they feel they must defend, and ten years ago they only had enough manpower to fully man three of them.  Now their manpower level is so bad there are now mercenaries from 48 nations with boots on the ground including N. Korea and China, seriously exposing the Russian military isn't a bear.   They're so desperate they've duped poor young Indian nationals desperate for foreign employment into fighting in Ukraine. In fact this war has turned into a meat grinder. A riot broke out over this in Krasnodar and their desertion problem is real.

The economics of this war is killing them and they want a restoration of economic stability and a return of international investments, but they don't want to make any concession until they conquer more territory. 

According to Ekaterina Zolotova, an expert analyst for Geopolitical, that's a reflection of the Russian mentality overall.   The majority want peace, a minority wants war, but a huge majority of all Russians insist there should be no concessions or minimal concessions.  That's Putin's conundrum. 

The drop in the price of oil and U.S. sanctions has caused Putin serious budget issues.  Central Asian nations that were former USSR republics are now doing more business with China, who is even wanting to fund building a small nuke power plant in one of these nations, and that's a pattern that won't end when this war is over.  

China's cut a "comprehensive strategic partnership" deal with Azerbaijan involving travel, trade, science, energy and...get this... tourism.   But here's the kicker.  They're agreeing to affirm mutual support for sovereignty and territorial integrity.   How far will that range?  As for right now Azerbaijan agrees that Taiwan is part of China and China agrees to support Azerbaijan in their conflict with Nagoya-Karabakh.   Didn't even know there was such a thing did you, but this is a major small conflict on Russia's border that's been going on for years, and one that Russia can't resolve due to this Ukraine war.  Azerbaijan is on the west cost of the Caspian Sea, right in Russia's back yard, and China is stepping in where Russia has failed.   Russians can't even manufacture their military needs, so China does, and has been doing so for some time.

Even Pakistan is involving themselves in the Russian sphere of influence, and truth be told, Putin needs to worry far more about China than NATO or the U.S.

Back to the "Depth of Defense" big lie.  In February Putin predicted Trump was going to make Europe's leaders ‘Bend at His Feet’ saying:

“They just don’t like Trump. They forgot him actively, really interfered in political life, in the election process of the United States. And then they were confused when Trump suddenly won,” Putin said. “But I assure you, Trump with his character, persistence, he will restore order pretty quickly. And all of them, you’ll see, it will happen quickly, soon, all of them will stand at the master’s feet and gently wag their tails.”

Why is that important?  It's a tacit acknowledgement that Putin understood who and what these European NATO "leaders" were and had to know they had no plans, desires, or ability to attack Russia.  

There have been prominent writers who claim Putin doesn't bluff, I think that's a load of horsepucky.  I've paid a lot of attention to him over the years, and read a lot of Russian history, and he's still practicing what Russian communists have been practicing since they took over, it's called maskirovka, a masquerade.  

The Russians always bluff unless they have an overwhelming advantage where there's no need bluff in order to get their way, then they just use the hammer.  Just like when the USSR crushed the Hungarian Revolution in 1956, or the Czech revolt known as the Prague Spring in 1968, where nothing could have stopped Soviet troops from overwhelming those nations.   That's not the case now, and what advantage he had has dissipated massively, at many levels.

Russia was considered the number two military nation in the world, which has been fighting a war against the 22nd military nation in the world for three years, but he's not going to launch nuclear weapons against Ukraine.  He can't take the risk of retaliation, and NATO is now aware of how dangerous Putin is, and is talking retaliation, which makes you wonder from where they're getting their natural gas now, and do they really want Warsaw or Berlin to become a nuclear waste land?  

But Putin really doesn't want Moscow to become one either, and I don't believe he will take that chance.  I also believe he's facing some internal political issues that scares him. Is there a Claus von Stauffenberg cabal within his military?  Absolutely!  Historically, being Caesar is the scariest most dangerous job in the world, or in this case Czar, without the religious trappings.  

There's always a Stauffenberg cabal, look at what happened to the American military establishment.  Would they take action if he attempted to use nukes?  I think so.  He's not the chess player we thought he was, but that's when he was dealing with nitwits like Obama, but I also don't think he's that stupid either. He's not really all that smart, he's just clever.  Even if there's no retaliation the international consequences will be massive.  He's already destroyed Ukraine far beyond his economic ability to rebuild it, and nukes would merely make it worse, so where's the victory? 

He's failed to defeat Ukraine in three years, and it's clear Russia's military, and especially it's military leadership are not all that after all.  Bad leadership, bad training, bad strategy, poor logistics, terrible planning, lousy intelligence, and stupid arrogant conclusions, all of which has been the problem with Russia for 125 years, going back to the the 1904 Russo/Japanese war, which Russia lost, and then WWI, which they lost.  They only defeated Germany in WWII because Germany was overstretched.... way over stretched....  and America provided much needed hardware, especially the Dodge truck.  

It's been said the Dodge truck saved the Soviet Union, as that allowed Stalin to quickly transport men and material around the country, which he was incapable of doing before that.  Horse cart supply lines don't cut it. If Germany had finished off England first, and hadn't declared war on America, Russia would have lost, badly, even with the 30 divisions he had stashed in Eastern Russia to repel a feared Japanese invasion.

This war has exposed just how fragile Russia is economically, industrially, and domestically.  As a result,  Putin's international credibly is in the toilet, and he needs for this war to go away.  He also needs to come out looking good, or at least not as the loser, since in Russia failed leaders aren't well tolerated, and I've no doubt, given the murderous thug he's been, he legitimately fears for his continued existence.  

He also knows France and others are talking about putting boots on the ground, and Trump didn't want to keep funding Ukraine any longer.  He clearly needs Trump to work some diplomatic magic as he did with the Abrahamic Accords, and that will have to be a multinational agreement that binds Russia to Ukrainian protection, which will require an entire restructuring of Ukraine's government.  Good luck with that, as each time they seem to reach an agreement one or both parties reneges, and Trump made it clear he's had it and is more than willing to walk away. 

But now Trump has allegedly cut a deal with Zalenskyy over mining in Ukraine, as a result, a fund would be created out of that to rebuild Ukraine and Trump is partially ending his ban on military hardware.  A lot of military hardware.   Fifty billion dollars worth of military hardware, so we'll see what happens, but make no mistake about this.  There are no good guys in this war, only one worse guy, and that's Putin.

Greenland and Donald Trump

By Rich Kozlovich

It wasn't all that long ago when Donald Trump declared he wanted to take over Greenland, the Panama Canal, make Canada a state, and take over Gaza and turn it into a paradise.

Well, the Canada and Gaza things were nuts, but there are solid national security reasons involving Greenland, and certainly the Panama Canal which Jimmy Carter gave away, and given how China has bought a lot of control there, it's a smart move.

Did you ever wonder why Carter did that?  Here's the list of the 45 Communist Goals to Destroy America as Listed in the 1963 Congressional Record, and guess what goal number 44 was?  Internationalize the Panama Canal.  Based on his record, the kindest thing one can say about Jimmy Carter is he was a communist sympathizer.  The worst you can say is he was a traitor.

Well, the leadership in Denmark and Greenland were just a little bit upset about that, and a lot of critical rhetoric spewed out, both nationally and internationally, declaring this was outrageous.  And the Russians, bullies and thugs they are, warned... warned mind you, that  Donald Trump should stay away from Greenland, as it impacted their “strategic interests” in the Arctic region.  Well, if there was anything that would push Trump to work harder at acquiring Greenland, that would be it.

The leadership in Denmark and Greenland were clearly not going to go along with that, and it was claimed both the Danes and the Greenlanders were opposed.  It's funny how mistaken leaders can be about what their citizens want or believe.  

Greenland just had an election, and:

 

.....the ruling party was forced out of power. The new winner is a party that is leaning towards self-governance and got 29.9% of the votes, together with the very pro-separatist party that will probably form a coalition together with them.  The new government will use its newfound voter support to pressure the Danish government for more money and more self-determination, something that that they can thank Donald Trump for, because before he started showing interest in Greenland the Greenlanders felt they were riding in the back of the Danish realm's bus.

 

They didn't vote to become an American state, or territory, but they just put better terms on the table for good relations with Trump and America, and the GOP is pushing legislation to give Trump the authority to negotiate the purchase of Greenland, and there are those who think it's time the U.S. should claim territory in Antarctica.   

This isn't over yet, and it will be worth watching, but have you noticed the pattern playing out in so many scenarios.  Trump speaks and everyone gets outraged, and then things start to go his way, and all the outraged turn silent, except for our very own American Smeagol, James Carville, who insists Trump has put the very existence of America in jeopardy, and believes the Trump administration will ‘collapse’ within 30 days, and they're in total melt down.  Then there's Mad Maxine who claims what Trump really wants is civil war, in spite of the fact it's the left that just about has a monopoly on political violence.  And as time has gone by with DOGE exposure of who is getting funding, we now are seeing so much of these riots and destruction is a vast left-wing online coordinated conspiracy.

Just like so many leftists, like John Cusack, and Raoul Peck, who just can't keep from saying stupid things, really are gifts that keeps on giving. 

Russia and (Non-Existent) Shock Therapy

January 30, 2025 by Dan Mitchell @ International Liberty

Last year, I mocked Tucker Carlson for trying to make it seem like Russia’s moribund economy was successful. Two years ago, I showed that Russia lagged behind other nations that emerged from the collapse of communism.

 

Three years ago, I shared a chart showing that Russia was an economic failure because of dirigiste economic policy.

Just in case it’s not obvious, I think Russia needs liberalization. More free markets and less statism.

With that in mind, let’s look at some not-too-distant history. Serge Schmemann has a very interesting column in the New York Times about how American officials had differing views of how to help Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Here are some excerpts.

It was March 1994…and the debates within the U.S. Embassy in Moscow were heated. Diplomats in the economic section, backed by the Treasury Department in Washington, argued ardently that radical free-market reforms were the only path for post-Soviet Russia, and that democracy would surely follow. Political advisers believed, equally passionately, that such “shock therapy” would only worsen the devastating dislocation Russians were already suffering with the collapse of the Soviet Union. …E. Wayne Merry, the top political analyst in the embassy and one of the most forceful critics of shock therapy, set out a detailed case against it in a long telegram… Attempts at market reforms had left much of the population destitute… Was America’s advocacy of “shock therapy” responsible for the rise of oligarchs and the ascent of Mr. Putin?

At the risk of over-simplifying, Schmemann’s column basically argues that the United States should not have pushed for radical economic liberalization after the Soviet Union fell apart. Instead, Americans should have let the Russians chart their own path.

That is a perfectly legitimate position. Indeed, many libertarians would agree that the crowd in Washington should not be cajoling or pressuring other nations to do good things or bad things.

But I have one niggling concern with the column, which is that Russia never had shock therapy. There was never a period of radical free-market reforms.

But don’t believe me. Here’s a chart from the Fraser Institute’s Economic Freedom of the World. As you can see, there was some improvement in economic policy after the collapse of communism, but Russia has never come close to having even French levels of economic liberty. And France is not exactly a pro-market paradise, to put it mildly.

If you want a real example of shock therapy, look at the amazing things Javier Milei is doing to rejuvenate Argentina.

Or, if you prefer examples from the former Soviet Bloc, here’s another chart from the Fraser Institute, in this case showing economic liberty in Russia, Estonia, and Poland.

As you can see, Estonia did a lot of reform, Poland did a decent amount of reform, and Russia has been a bit of a laggard.

Now let’s examine one final graph, in this case from the World Bank.

Is anyone surprised to see that there is a clear relationship showing that the country with the most shock therapy is now the richest while the country that did the least liberalization is the poorest?

Gee, it’s almost as if there is a relationship between economic liberty and national prosperity.

P.S. Click here to learn more about Poland and Estonia.

P&D Geopolitics Edition: Russia

By Rich Kozlovich

 

I get irritated over so many articles that claim Russia's economy is growing alluding to the idea all is fine, and I have no idea where that comes from, over 30 percent of their budget is defense spending, and Russian industry still can't supply their military or meet the needs of their civilian population. 

 

When I read, analyze, and write about anything I start with this foundational truth: Everything is the basics.  Most things aren't as complicated as they're presented.  They all have root foundations to them and that's what has to be identified.  If what I'm reading violates "the basics" I know it's wrong, and all I have to do is gather sufficient information to explain why it's wrong.

 

Ekaterina Zolotova is one of the writers a Geopolitical Futures, and I think she's excellent, posted this subscription article, "The Russian economy will be bad in 2025, at least according to Russian citizens", saying the Russian people are not confident about their economy for the upcoming year.  With international sanctions for Russian aggression in Ukraine, and Russia's leaders inability to restructure their economy from an economy based on selling energy resources, to a finished product economy, they are incapable of meeting the needs of their civilian population, and the military. 

Think about this.  America has supplied massive amounts of military hardware to Ukraine, and others, to the detriment of America's ability to defend the nation, and now it's been reported America's ability to replace that material, rearm the American military, and create as stockpile will take years under the current system.  If America can't do it easily, Russia can't do it at all.  Which is what should be expected of a central planning economic system, all of which are always stunning stupid, and run by ideologically driven economic retards. 

 

They've failed to build an industrial base that can provide their army with their needs, actually buying military hardware from.... get this..... North Korea, and Iran.  How bad is that?  And worse yet, they brought in at least 10,000 N. Koreans to fight in their army, and they've been used as cannon fodder.  Some of them committing suicide to avoid capture in fear of what would happen in retaliation to their families in N. Korea for surrendering.  Why would they do that.  Because Putin's afraid of forcing his own population into the meat grinder the Ukraine War has become and potentially creating massive resistance to his rule.  

 

Russia will win in Ukraine, sort of, and it will be a massive loss to Russia.  The world's second army hasn't been able to beat the world's 22nd army in over two years.  They can't manufacture their own military hardware, they can't field their army with their own citizens, and the only reason they will win is because Ukraine is running out of people, along with the fact Zelenskyy and his cabal are totally corrupt and have no credibility, even with their own people.  I will say I am impressed with those who remain and are still fighting even though they must know it's a lost cause. 

 

After this is over, Russia will find they have no credibility, they can't afford to rebuild all the infrastructure they've destroyed, the population they hoped to absorb into the Russian population to help against their demographic time bomb is now either dead or fled the nation, and more will flee, giving Europe the manpower they claimed they needed justifying bringing in all these Muslim migrants ....the vast majority of whom are on welfare.... and they will suffer economically, no matter what deals are struck. 

 

Is it possible there will be a deal to save Ukraine in some fashion?  If anyone can broker such a deal I think it's Trump, and if Ukraine does continue to exist, that will further erode Russian, and especially Putin's credibility.  One thing is clear though, Putin's ruling class is committed to the idiotic idea that NATO wants to attack Russia, at least that's what they're promoting to the Russian population, whether they believe it or not, in order to justifying continuing their  military expenditures, and that's as far as the eye can see. 

 

One final thought.  Failed Russian leaders do not fare well, so, do you know why the Soviets didn't kill Khrushchev after they dethroned him?  I believe it was because during his reign there were attempts to overthrow him and when they failed, he didn't kill his adversaries.   And if I remember correctly, some remained in the government.  After the Stalin mass murdering depredations I think that shocked them, and Khrushchev lived out the rest of his life comfortably.

 

However, Putin has been a murderous thug, and anything less than a total occupation of Ukraine is a failure.  It's my view there will be an attempt to overthrow him, as I'm sure there's a Stauffenberg cabal in their government, and their military, and if he's overthrown, I think he will fall prey to a major accident, or have a major accident that avoids an overthrow.  Afterward  there will be a massive restructuring of their government, and their military, but will there be a massive restructuring of their thinking?  

 

Who knows, they're Russian, and Russia is a "hordesland" nation, hence their historical goal of conquering smaller nations at their borders to be barriers to attack.  While in times past that was understandable, but today, that's paranoia, unfortunately and that paranoia is almost inbred in Russians.