By Tim Stickings
For Mailonline 22 May 2020
Coronavirus lockdowns have 'destroyed millions of livelihoods' but
failed to alter the course of the pandemic -- given many US states have
seen lower infection rates after easing restrictions, a JP Morgan study
has claimed.
The statistical analysis has raised questions about the effectiveness of
the lockdowns put in place across much of the United States two months
ago to stop the spread of COVID-19.
It suggests that the lockdown measures have not only resulted in
economic devastation but could have also resulted in more COVID-19
deaths.
The strict stay-at-home measures put in place by the governors of most
states in mid-March has so far seen nearly 39 million American lose
their jobs and forced businesses to close.
There are now more than 1.6 million infections in the US and over 95,000 deaths.
'Unlike rigorous testing of potential new drugs, lockdowns were
administered with little consideration that they might not only cause
economic devastation but potentially more deaths than COVID-19 itself,'
author Marko Kolanovic, a trained physicist and a strategist for JP
Morgan, said.
The report also includes a chart showing that 'the vast majority of
countries had decreased infection rates' after lockdowns were lifted.
The JP Morgan report says that restarting the US economy may not lead to
a second surge in infections that health experts have feared given the
falling infections rates seen since lockdown measures were lifted in
parts of the country.
Infection rates have continued to decline even once a lag period for new
infections to become visible is factored in, according to the report.
The R rate is the average number of people who will become infected by
one person with the virus. Researchers and health experts have said a
rate below 1.0 is a key indicator that the spread of the virus has been
maintained.
Reproduction rate data from Rt.live on Friday showed that all but two states had lowered the rate of infection.
According to that data, Minnesota's R rate was 1.01 and North Dakota's was at 1.02.
The report also includes a chart showing that 'the vast majority of
countries had decreased infection rates' after lockdowns were lifted.
The chart, however, doesn't specify which country is which.
All 50 states have at least partially reopened this week by relaxing
restrictions on businesses and social distancing in varying degrees
across the country.
Kolanovic said governments had been spooked by 'flawed scientific
papers' into imposing lockdowns that were 'inefficient or late' and had
little effect.
'While we often hear that lockdowns are driven by scientific models, and
that there is an exact relationship between the level of economic
activity and the spread of [the] virus - this is not supported by the
data,' the report says.
'Indeed, virtually everywhere infection rates have declined after
re-opening even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag.
'This means that the pandemic and COVID-19 likely have (their) own
dynamics unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures that were
being implemented.'
Those dynamics may be influenced by increased hand-washing and even
weather patterns but seemingly not by full-scale lockdowns, the report
suggests.
'The fact that re-opening did not change the course of the pandemic is
consistent with studies showing that initiation of full lockdowns did
not alter the course of the pandemic either,' it says.
The JP Morgan analysis linked the decision to impose lockdowns to
'flawed scientific papers' predicting millions of deaths in the West.
'This on its own was odd, given that in China there were only several
thousand deaths, and the mortality rate outside of Wuhan was very low,'
the report says.
'In the absence of conclusive data, these lockdowns were justified
initially. Nonetheless, many of these efforts were inefficient or
late.'
Kolanovic says that lockdowns had remained in place even as 'our
knowledge of the virus and lack of effectiveness of total lockdowns
evolved'.
'Despite the conditions for re-opening being mostly met across the US,
it is not yet happening in the largest economic regions for example
California and New York,' he said.
'While our knowledge of the virus and lack of effectiveness of total
lockdowns evolved, lockdowns remained in place and focus shifted to
contact tracing, contemplating second wave of outbreaks and ideas about
designing better education, political and economic systems.
'At the same time, millions of livelihoods were being destroyed by these lockdowns.'
The US and other countries in lockdown are having to blow huge holes in
their budgets to counter the economic standstill that is forcing
millions of people into unemployment.
The report cites 'worrying populism' as an obstacle to re-opening the
economy, for example in the US where senators passed an anti-China
measure this week.
It warns that economic activity in the US is 'now largely following
partisan lines' as Republican and Democratic governors adopt different
strategies for their states.
As well as casting doubt on the wisdom of imposing lockdowns in the
first place, the report suggests that economies could now be re-opened
more quickly.
In other parts of the world, Denmark is among the countries that has
started re-opening its economy without seeing a new surge in virus
cases.
Zoos, museums and cinemas have re-opened early in Denmark with many
children now back at school after scientists said the R rate had
continued to fall.
Germany has also been confident enough to scale back the lockdown after
the R rate mostly stayed below 1.0 following an initial lifting of
restrictions.
However, chancellor Angela Merkel has repeatedly urged caution and
warned that a second wave of virus cases could leave hospitals
overwhelmed.
The UK government has similarly warned that some restrictions could be
re-imposed if there is a 'sudden and concerning' rise in new cases.
Sweden has never imposed a lockdown, and its per-capita death rate is
better than Britain's - although worse than that of its Scandinavian
neighbours.
SOURCE
