By Rich Kozlovich
I've stored a lot of information over the last couple of months from around the world, much of it from subscription sites so I can't link the information, so you'll just have to take my word for what I'm presenting... or not.... as it pleases you. However, I think I can say without much argument, the world is a mess. So, let's do this alphabetically starting with Africa.
Nations all along the Red Sea and Persian Gulf are in throes of agony of some kind. Somalia has been a mess for years, but say they will hold elections next spring but the opposition is unsatisfied. Being unsatisfied is almost a foundational social paradigm throughout the Middle East, but Somalia is a poster child for dissatisfaction.
Ethiopia is at war with itself, and with Eritrea which supports the Ethiopian insurgents, which could draw in Egypt and Sudan. The Congo's political arena is facing turbulent waters as there's a new "a new political-military coalition that aims to challenge President Felix Tshisekedi's government and restore state institutions, including through the use of force"
I thought this was worth a moment of time as this kinda comes out of nowhere:
Morocco Turns Israeli Weapons Technology Into Defense Industry as Algeria Watches - Rabat is moving from buying Israeli systems to building them, with deliveries planned from March 2027, while Algeria, armed by Russia, keeps backing the "Polisario Front, which is an armed national liberation movement seeking independence for Western Sahara."
In Asia South Korea Wants to Take Wartime Military Command Away From American General, which would put a South Koran commander in charge not only of S. Korean forces but American forces... if I understand that correctly. Given how this new South Korean government wants to execute their former president for treason and is getting cozy with N. Korea and China, perhaps it's time American forces came home as South Korea is engaging with Russia to offset North Korea's militant attitude.
South Korea is considering an "expanding military mission in the Middle East" as an anti-piracy measure from the Gulf of Aden to the Gulf of Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz. I would have to assume oil is the issue, but if they can do this, they should be able to defend themselves, and North Korea is going to spend massively to upgrade their navy to "off set" the forces of surrounding nations.
China's export issues remain, as China wants to impose export controls on "40 technologies across artificial intelligence biomedicine and photovoltaics, including outright export bans in some cases." Why? I have no idea. China's also having issues with the EU as the European council now backs "market-closure instrument, safeguards on chemical and machinery due to unfair trade practices or coercion." In September China bought soybeans from the U.S. to the tune of 1.3 metric tons.
China is not a freedom of expression nation, and most certainly not a freedom of religion nation, and doesn't even like it in nations that practice it as Falun Gong practitioners were attacked outside of the Chinese Consulate in Toronto.
In Central Asia Kazakhstan is becoming more economically independent from Russia as they've now joined the "World Bank's Metals and Minerals Compact, becoming the first Central Asian participant and setting a target to attract $20 billion in mining and processing investment." Where is this heading? Kazakhstan is a land locked nation that has very real economic potential but they can't be seen as taking sides, and they're not. China likes the influence they can exert there because no matter what anyone says, China and Russia are not friends. Russia ...and I'm guessing here.... should like it because it creates an economic sphere from which Russia can benefit, and Russia needs that, but they're doing a high wire balancing act, and it seems to me they're doing it pretty well. As this writer says, Kazakhstan is a bridge between the North, South, East and West.
In the Middle East, and I will have more on this in another post, the Houthis are out of control and even attacked the Presidential palace in Aden. All this is giving drive to what's called the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey, to which Syria is now wanting to join, which I find interesting as there are issues between Turkey and Syria. And we're shocked why? Have no doubt this will become more about Israel and the "Palestinians" than Iran and the Houthi down the road.
"Syria is considering joining the Mecca joint defense pact with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani said. Talks are underway, al-Shibani indicated, describing Syria as an integral part of regional security. He also emphasized that regional stability depends directly on what happens in Gaza and finding a path toward an independent Palestinian state. Israel will oppose Syria's membership, but it likely can;t stop Damascus from joining."
Saudi Arabia is most likely to respond with "intensive" air strikes and are outsourcing ground operations to Yemeni allies. Are full scale military operations on the table? Supposedly, but this is Saudi Arabia, ....lots of money, stunningly weak military..... and a nation that's taking some serious damage to their economic bottom line over oil exports. If Saudi Arabia can't be filthy rich, it can't be a nation. I will have more on that in the next Geopolitics Edition.
"Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to offer Saudi Arabia direct military aid through U.S. mediation, but the offer so far has fallen flat, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman remains reluctant to openly accept Israeli support, despite his country's escalating campaign against the Houthis in Yemen."
"U.S., Iran: Two Ships Sink Around Strait of Hormuz as Iran Expands Attacks on Commercial Vessels-Two cargo vessels sank around the Strait of Hormuz in recent days after being struck by projectiles, marking the second and third vessels to sink in the region since the start of the Iran conflict in February."
"What Tehran Owes -Trump answers Iran's reparations demand with a counter-invoice, and the American courts wrote the numbers years ago: ninety judgments, $102 billion outstanding, zero paid. Plus the main section: the corporate enablers of Iran that Western governments documented in their own files and never sanctioned."
I think this piece is really thought provoking, and I agree.
Tom Barrack Will Demolish Trump’s Legacy (Oct 13): Michael Rubin argues that Tom Barrack, the ambassador in Ankara and envoy for Syria and Iraq, has reworked American policy in Turkey’s favor, from the F-35 to a waiver for the S-400, and that the consequences will be laid at the President’s door.
I really don't understand Trump's reasoning over Turkey as it's making a lot of noise in the Mediterranean with Greece over Cyprus, and injecting itself into the politics of African nations. They're not a force for stabilization in my view, in fact, I think they're just the opposite.
I have a lot more stored and will continue this discussion again tomorrow. I probably should have one every day, but I hate jumping the gun as so very often I find a story needs time to fill out properly, and I like having a lot of background information.
