An Updated Analysis of the 2024 Senate Race

By Rich Kozlovich

On February 14, 2024 I posted this An Analysis: Senate Race 2024 and More.  I've updated that piece regularly leaving all the speculations and potentials in place to show the events and the time line even though some of it's meaningless now.   It appears to me, as of right now anyway, the most of Republican seats will remain Republican, but not all, even if there are different faces.  

As I pointed out there are 33 United States Senate seats up for election in 2024. There are 3 Independent seats (who always caucus with the Democrats, which is why the Democrats have a majority in the Senate) 20 open Democrats, and 10 Republicans.  That seemingly gives the Republicans an edge, 23 Democrat/Independents, versus 10 Republican seats up for grab.  

I believe there will be 5 Democrat seats that will go Republican one Republican seat that will go Independent, and three that's 50/50, and two of those are Republican seats.  Right now there are 48 Democrats, 3 Independents, and 49 Republicans in the Senate, giving the Democrats a one seat majority.   

(Editor's Note: See the update below regarding Pennsylvania's Senate race. RK)

If the Republicans take the five I'm calling for them, and the three that are tossups go to the Democrats, along with the Independent taking a Republican seat, that will make the Senate a 50/50 tie, meaning the Vice President would be the tie breaking vote in the Senate, and I've come to the conclusion some of these seats will have to be taken on Trump's coattails.   

But since the Democrat/Independent contingent will vote in lock step, and there are so many RINO's who will typically vote with the Democrats, the Democrats will still control the Senate.  The realistic numbers?  50 Democrat/Independents, anywhere from 6 to 10 RINO's at any give time,  leaving 40 to 44 Republicans.  That gives the Senate a potential 60/40 edge over the Republicans, even if the Senate leader is a Republican, and it won't be Mitch McConnell. 

As for the House, my view remains the same.   The Republican House is filled with brainless, gutless, and feckless nitwits.  Not as bad as Liz Chaney, but I think there are a lot of borderline Liz Chaney's in the House.   Demonstrating that was the fact it took two attempts to impeach Mayorkas, who was clearly guilty of high crimes and misdemeanors.  As a result, they could lose the House.    

I initially thought the Democrats would believe they were going to lose the White House, so all their chicanery and massive voter fraud schemes in this election that would focus on the down card.  That doesn't appear to be the case, as they're all in for Kamala, who they all thought was an nitwit before Biden in effect made her the candidate when he withdrew.  An action interpreted by many, and rightly so in my opinion, to punish the Democrat machine for pushing him out, and he keeps doubling down on that with his "support".  

The really big take away is the Democrats are a disaster, and are clearly working to destroy America, and it's institutions, and more are coming to that conclusion. The question is: Can Democrats muster enough fraudulent votes to overcome a massive voter rebellion against their party, and will there be a massive voter revolt against Democrats?

What about October Surprises?  Well, it will be interesting to watch in the next few days what happens over these two October Surprises.  Usually they've been against Republicans, but yesterday Kamala has been exposed as a plagiarist,  a seriously bad plagiarist, and the day before Walz was accused of being a homosexual pedophile. 

But, hey, everyone has flaws, and besides, they're Democrats, so what's the big deal?   Right?  As Whoopie said about Roman Polanski having sex with a 13 year old girl, it's not like its rape-rape.   What a strange moral universe they live in, how will that play out, and will all that effect the down card?

As the journalist in Charlies Wilson's War said: We'll See!

• Update: It appears Senator Casey is now disavowing his own voting record, and distancing himself from Kamala and the Democrat party.  I'm still convinced voter fraud will decide this election in Pa., but I'm moving this into the 50/50 category.  (D/R)
• Update: It appears Senator Casey is now disavowing his own voting record, and distancing himself from Kamala and the Democrat party.  I'm still convinced voter fraud will decide this election in Pa., but I'm moving this into the 50/50 category.
  
• Update: Kurt Schlichter seems to think there's a possible big win in the Senate with 59 Republicans.  I disagree, but his analysis is worth reading.