An Analysis: Senate Race 2024 and More

By Rich Kozlovich

There are 33 United States Senate seats up for election in 2024. There are 3 Independent seats (who always caucus with the Democrats, which is why the Democrats have a majority in the Senate) 20 open Democrats, and 10 Republicans.  That seemingly gives the Republicans an edge, 23 Democrat/Independents, versus 10 Republican seats up for grab. 

That's pretty good odds, but let's face it, has there ever been a time when Republicans couldn't snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory?  

Note: I've updated this regularly, but I've left all the speculations and potentials in place to show the events and the time line in place even though some of it's meaningless now.

Democrat/Independent Seats

The Democrat's message amounts to white people are evil, big oppressive government is just being neighborly, you have too much freedom, and vaguely proclaim, "too many politicians in Washington are focused more on the special interests than the interests of the people they’re supposed to represent.”  

What's that mean? 

They don't name names, and they don't tell the world who and why.  And they don't because that's blatant projection on the part of Democrats, and that's not working any longer, because they're absolutely guilty of that which they accuse others. 

1. Arizona, Kyrsten Sinema. She's toast in Arizona's Democrat politics, and is now an Independent.  Kari Lake will beat which ever Democrat is chosen in her place, provided they can stop the corrupt and massive amount of that's gone on in Arizona, which is why she didn't get elected Governor. I list it as going Republican. *Update, 3/5/24:  Sinema has dropped out. (R) Update, 7/31/24: Kari Lake won the Republican nomination.  Ya just gotta hand it to those Republicans.  The Democrat nominee, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), ran unopposed, Lake had two running against her. (R)  Update:  AZ Uncovers Further 120K Voters Without Citizenship Proof. (R)
   Arizona's Secretary of State has announced the discovery of an additional 120,000 registered voters who lack documentary proof of citizenship, bringing the total to 218,000. The extensive error is attributed to data coding issues involving driver's license information between the Arizona Department of Transportation’s Motor Vehicle Division and the state voter registration databases.  (R)
   
2. California, Dianne Feinstein's Seat. This is California, no Republican can get elected to the Senate from that state, so there's really nothing to analyze here except to note Pencil Neck Schiff isn't doing all that well. Will stay Democrat. *Update, 3/5/24: Republican Garvey leads in polls with 27%, but that lead is against three Democrats, who in combination represent 52% of the voters, and Garvey will not get any of that 52%.  So, unless there's a scandal, and that's a very real possibility, Schiff will win.  But either way, California will still go, (D)
3. Connecticut, Chris Murphy. He's being challenged by a relative unknown, Gerry Smith. Republicans in Connecticut rarely get over 43% of the vote. There are two other Republicans making noise, but they have tens of dollars and Murphy has millions of dollars. Will stay Democrat. (D) 
4. Delaware Tom Carper,  is retiring, and as far as I can tell the Democrat candidates are Lisa Blunt Rochester, and Pamela Brown, and the Republicans have two running, Eric Hansen, and William Taylor. If Delaware wasn't a New England state, I would rate this 50/50. This is Delaware. Joe Biden's corrupt empire, and it will go Democrat. (D) 
5. Hawaii, Mazie Hirono. As far as I can tell, she's running unopposed. Stays Democrat (D) 
6. Maine, Angus King, is an Independent, which means he caucuses with the Democrats. There are two Democrats running against him, Natasha Alcala and David Costello. The Republican running is Demi Kouzounas, but she's been one of those responsible for getting Rona McDaniel elected as head of the RNC. King will get re-elected. (I/D) 
7. Maryland, Ben Cardin, is retiring and as of right now there are six Democrats, one Progressive, two Independents (which actually means there are nine Democrats), and four Republicans. Initially I thought this would stay Democrat, but Maryland Republican Larry Hogan Announces Senate Bid in Blow to Democrats.  - Update, 6/5/24: Hogan is a bit of an odd duck telling voters he's not a reliable Republican vote, but also saying he's not a reliable Democrat vote, but votes on issues not party, and won't go to the Republican convention.  I still give this race an (R).   Update 9/30/24:  Since Hogan has now come out and said he won't vote for Trump, and he's made it clear he's going to fight Trump every step of the way, I think that just changed the odds.  it's now 50/50, and only because, in spite of his stupidity, Trump has endorsed him.  However, I'm inclined to think a lot of Republicans may think it's better to have the adversaries outside rather than inside, polluting the mind of their fellow Republicans, which in some cases won't take much.  Call this a 50/50 may be optimistic.  (R/D) Update 19/7/24:  Well, it's gotten worse with Hogan.  He now says he vote to certify election results, apparently with no questions asked, and he will only vote to confirm a SCOTUS candidate if there's bipartisan consensus.  Which means only Democrat approved nominees.  Since I'm now convinced any conservatives living in Maryland will simply refuse to vote for the John McCain clone, as they refused to vote for McCain, I've decided Maryland will remain (D). 
   
8. Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren,  is facing Louis Marino (L) Brandon James Griffin (Workers Party) Shiva Ayyadurai (Independent) and four Republicans, Zakhai Akiba, Robert Antonellis, Rebekah Etique, and Aaron Packard.  Warren will be the Democrat nominee, she will win, and Massachusetts will stay Democrat. (D)
9. Michigan, Debbie Stabenow. There are a few third party show ups, and two Republicans. This could go either way, but this is a state that's still passing gun laws SCOTUS has shot down in principle and/or practice, and given the massive and ubiquitous amount of , Stabenow will most likely get it.  Update 3/12/24:  It appears Donald Trump has endorsed a RINO, a Deep State NeoCon RINO named Mike Rogers.  Will he win over Stabenow? In my opinion....No... (D)
10. Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar, has one Democrat running against her, and five Republicans. Berman will be the Republican nominee.  Don't let Klobuchar's cute pictures fool you.  She's a nasty human being, but she's going to win anyway. (D) 
11. Montana, Jon Tester, is the Democrat nominee, and there are four Republicans running.  I gave this a 50/50 until Tim Sheey entered the race.   Donald Trump Endorses Tim Sheehy for Senate in Montana  Exclusive — Montana Senate Candidate Tim Sheehy: Trump’s Endorsement ‘Great Honor’.  This could still go either way, but I'm going to give this to the Republicans.  In this April 10th Update: Tester is caught lying about his support for Biden and illegal immigration.  Democrat Jon Tester Attempts to Distance Himself from Biden in Ad. Tester twice voted against amendments that would have provided funds to U.S. Customs and Border Protection for narcotic and opioid detection activities — once in March 2021 and again in August 2022.  I said this could go either way, but I'm now thinking this will go Republican.  (R) August 15th Update: Montana Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy has opened up a six-point lead over Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), according to a poll that reveals voters trust Sheehy more on key issues. (R)
    
12. Nevada, Jacky Rosen. She has one Democrat running against her, Michael Schaefer, and ten Republicans fighting for the Republican nomination, spending a lot of money fighting each other. Ya really gotta hand it to those Republicans. They really know how to come together to defeat an adversary. This is, in my opinion, a really shaky conclusion, but I'm giving this to the Republicans. (R) Update 4/4/24: We Now Have Another 'Toss-Up' Senate Race.  I already called this for the Republicans, with trepidation, but I think that prediction is now stronger! Update 4/18/24: Nevada: Veteran Sam Brown (R) has a different perspective from those of other pollsters. His internal polling shows him easily winning the nomination for Senate to run against Sen. Jacky Rose.  I'm sticking with my pick.  (R)
13. New Jersey, Robert Menendez. Ya gotta give this guy credit for brass. With all the corruption surrounding him like wolves trying to take down an old and weak buffalo, you'd think he'd go off into the sunset. But....nooooo... He's running to retain his seat. However, there are six Democrats running against him, and two Republicans. Of course, this is New Jersey, another East Coast Land of the Lost, so it really doesn't matter, New Jersey is staying Democrat. The only question is will Menendez be the nominee, and will he be in jail before or after the election? (D) 
14. New Mexico, Martin Heinrich has two independents, two Democrats, and six Republicans running against him. He's a bit of a mystery to me. Actually I never heard of him before this, but he's pure Democrat in all things.  Which clearly demonstrates he has issues. But this is New Mexico where they're a major oil producing state that votes for a Senator who believes in global warming being manmade, and want's to stop using fossil fuels, demonstrating the general IQ in New Mexico is almost as low as it is in California. This will go Democrat.  They deserve this loser, but unfortunately the rest of us have to suffer with them. (D)
15. New York, Kirsten Gillibrand has three independents, five Democrats, which I find interesting since she's another pure Democrat who never saw a leftist narrative or position she couldn't embrace, so what can the Democrats and Independents possibly use against her that would make the leftist nitwits in New York choose them over her? She also has four Republicans running against her, which really doesn't matter. She gets the nod, and gets re-elected. (D) 
16. Ohio, Sherrod Brown has a real problem.  He has three Republicans running against him and all three have a good chance to beat him.  Here's my take on that race and I think Republicans will choose Bernie Moreno because the contrasts between him, Brown and the other candidates is stark, and the endorsements are piling up, including Donald Trump. (R)  Update:  Bernie Moreno is now the Republican candidate.  (R) Update: If Senator Vance becomes Vice President that would create an open Senate seat the Governor would fill via appointment.  It looks to me we'll get rid of one far left Democrat, Brown, and get a left wing RINO on the order of Governor DeWine. It's reported he favors Matt Dolan, the invertebrate owner of the Cleveland Indians who changed the name to the Cleveland Guardians.  Just what the Senate Republicans need, another Collins or Murkowski.  Having said that, no matter who he picks, based on the US Constitution and the Ohio Constitution, depending on the expiration of Vance's term, that appointee will face a special election, with the next general election, but only after first being in office for 18 months.  (R)  Update: I putting this in the 50/50 category now, and I think this might not be a Republican win after all, and if it does become a Republican win it will have to be on Trump's coattails.     (R/D)
    
17. Pennsylvania, Bob Casey.  Rep. Tim Murphy (R-Pa.) resigned from his congressional seat after it was revealed that he had engaged in an extramarital affair. The scandal was compounded by the fact that Rep. Murphy, a staunch defender of the pro-life movement, reportedly encouraged his mistress to get an abortion when they thought she might be pregnant, this resulted in Casey being picked to replace him. Casey is a pure Democrat who never saw a far left item he wasn't in love with.  He's also popular in Pa. for reasons I don't understand, with one Democrat and six Republicans running for that seat.  Casey will win. (D).  Update: Senator Casey was a big supporter of the Iran nuclear deal, and in view of these Iranian missile attacks this is coming back to haunt him. Will it matter? I don't think so because I think voter fraud is so entrenched in Pa. politics it can't be overcome without serious legislative and legal action.  (D). Update: Dave McCormick Lands Blow After Blow in PA Senate Debate Against Bob Casey.  McCormick took Casey's record and brutalized him with it.  Will it matter in Pennsylvania?  I don't think so, and for the same reason I stated already.  I reluctantly, give this a (D).  But, this isn't over yet.  Update: It appears Senator Casey is now disavowing his own voting record, and distancing himself from Kamala and the Democrat party.  I'm still convinced voter fraud will decide this election in Pa., but I'm moving this into the 50/50 category.  (D/R)
    
18. Rhode Island, Sheldon Whitehouse has one Democrat, two independents and two Republicans running. He's a pure Democrat, and this is Rhode Island, he's going to be re-elected. (D) 
19. Vermont, Bernie Sanders has been their guy in Vermont for decades in one form or the other in spite of his views and ideas are blatantly treasonous. He'll be reelected. (  https://townhall.com/tipsheet/madelineleesman/2024/10/04/pa-senaD) 
20. Virginia, Tim Kaine.  There are no Democrats running against him, but there are three Independents and here we go again.....Ten republicans.  Ten mind you, how much money will be wasted there?  Kaine is as far a left lunatic as there is, and I have no idea what Virginians see in him.  This can go either way, and I find it so confusing, I'm going to give this a 50/50.  (D/R) - Update 6/19/24:  Hung Cao Wins Virginia Senate GOP Primary.  I'm now giving this to the Republicans.  (R)
    
21. Wisconsin, Tammy Baldwin, Local NGOs conspiring with Feds to ‘resettle’ Somalis behind the backs of the people and the elected representative.  (D) Update: Wisconsin Team Challenges 11% of Milwaukee Addresses – DNC Quickly Intervenes, Wants Ballots Sent to These Dubious Locations. / This Senate Race Was Never Meant to Be Close. Now Dems Are Freaking Out. With the debate performances by Harris and Walz, and now their blatant disregard for the disaster hurricane Helene caused, I'm putting this on the 50/50 side. (D/R) Update:  It appears in a recent debate Eric Hovde made mincemeat out of Baldwin over residency, and that's now an issue for Baldwin who lives in Wisconsin just like Liz Chaney lived in Wyoming.  However, I think it will still be close, after all, this is Wisconsin, and they don't seem to believe voter fraud is all that bad, so I'm keeping this at 50/50.  But..... Hovde may actually take this seat on Trump's coattails.  (D/R)
    
22. Washington, Maria Cantwell has three Democrats and four Republicans running against her, but this is Washington. A state that thinks riots by Antifa, BLM, and any other insane leftist group that's killing, raping, and burning are mostly peaceful.  Whether she gets re-elected or not is immaterial, this state will continue to stink up Congress with a far left Democrat.  (D)
    
23. West Virginia, Joe Manchin, is done, and isn't running. Like Mitt Romney, he read the tea leaves.  There are seven Republicans, which I find fascinating since a very popular former W.Va. Governor Jim Justice is now running, and the clear pick.  There are three Democrats and one Independent.  I'm giving this to the Republicans, and specifically ex-Governor Jim Justice.  (R)
    

Republican Seats

 Republicans were always a mixed bag.  For years the Democrats made it clear they wanted all of our money and wanted to totally control every aspect of our lives, and they wanted in immediately.  The Republicans were willing to wait a week,  mostly RINO's who merely claimed to be conservatives telling voter they were going to support things to get elected, while never having an iota of intention to do so.     That's changing.  Trump is destroying these invertebrates. As a result of Trump the dominate theme for Republicans is less of what we've had to tolerate, and more of what we should be.  Less taxes, less government, less regulations, less spending, less borrowing.  More economic sanity, pay off the national debt, fix unfunded mandates, and a whole lot more adherence to the Constitution.

1. Florida, Rich Scott.  Talk about a hot race, there are 6 Republicans, 11 Democrats, and 6 also ran parties in this race.  Counting Scott, that's 24 people running for that one Senate seat.  Remarkable! Scott is a pure conservative, and it seems to me he's not a party favorite, and given he's publicly stated the Republican leadership, in particular Mitch McConnell, is destroying the nation, which is understandable, but it's also clear he doesn't care.  Nor is he a DeSantis favorite as he endorsed Trump over DeSantis.  What will the voters think about his stands?  We'll see.  I like him, but either way this will go Republican.  (R)
2. Indiana, Mike Braun isn't running. but there are 2 independents, 1 Libertarian, 5 Democrats, and 6 Republicans running.  Who knows?  But I'm giving this to the Republicans simply because this is Indiana. (R)
3. Mississippi, Roger Wicker has 1 Democrat and believe it or not, 2 Republicans running against him, with a combined war chest of all three being about 25% of Wicker's.  Okay, so, I'm gong to go out on a limb here and say.....Wicker gets this. (R)
4. Missouri, Josh Hawley.  Believe it or not, he actually has 1 Republican running against him.  There are also 4 Democrats and 1 Independent and 1 from the Socialist Equality Party.  Who knew.  Hawley gets it.  (R) 
5. Nebraska, Deb Fischer has 1 independent and two Democrats running against her. She's interesting as she supports term limits for Congress. She's also right on guns, border control, global warming, but shaky on other issues.  She'll win. (R) Update: Never overlook the Republican's ability to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory. It appears this is now a toss up election, with the Independent candidate, who clearly doesn't have a conservative bone in her body, is now in the lead.  I put this at 50/50 but not with the Democrat candidate.   (R/I) Update:  It appears the Independent candidate, a leftist union leader Independent candidate, Dan Osborn, has surged in the polls, and it looks like he will win.  (I)
   
6. N. Dakota, Kevin Cramer has no Republicans running against him, 1 independent and 1 Democrat.  In a state with such a small population of three quarters of a million people, that seems normal.  But I see no reason this isn't going Republican. (R)
   
7. Tennessee Marsha Blackburn is facing 4 Democrats. 1 candidate, Wisdom Zerit Teklay, from the "Wisdom People Party".  Imagine that. No Republicans.  She wins.  (R)
8. Texas, Ten Cruz has 1 Green party, 9 Democrats, and surprisingly, 2 Republicans running against him.  George Soros is totally committed to turn this election over to Democrats, and I'm expecting to see a ton of problems as a result, but in spite of all that, Cruz wins.  (R)  Update: Ted Cruz Faces GOP Rebellion in Texas as Republicans Back Opponent. This is an effort by the Chaney, Kinzinger cabal, and this is still Texas, and I don't think it's going to work.  I'm inclined to think a recommendation by these two misfits is a political death sentence for a Republican.  (R) Update: Cruz is fighting for his political life, and as I've said so often; you can never doubt the Republican ability to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.  Mitch McConnell controls funding for these elections and has refused to put a dime into Cruz's campaign.  He would rather lose Texas than support someone who has justifiably criticized his actions.  I'm now putting this at 50/50.  (R/D)
   
9. Utah, Mitt Romney, "A Born Loser From the Start, it's high time he stepped down". That was the title of an article in 2020 by Lloyd Billingsley calling Romney “a political outcast..............useful idiot for the defeated Democrats and a traitor to the party he once led in a presidential election”. Also saying this "gutless, sanctimonious buffoon should remove himself from the Senate. As Oliver Cromwell put it,  “In the name of God, go!”  Well, he's done after January 2025 since he's not running again. He read the tea leaves and finds the people of his state agree with Billingsley, and Oliver Cromwell.  As of now there is one Democrat and one Independent running.  But.....get this....there are twelve Republicans.  Twelve!  I just have to say this again.....ya just gotta give it to those Republicans, they really know how to come together to defeat an enemy.  Update:  You just have to wonder what's wrong with the Republicans in Utah.  They couldn't stand Romney any longer, but instead of picking an actual conservative they've picked Rep. John Curtis, another Romney. He's a RINO.   (R)
10. Wyoming, John Barrasso has 1 Republican, and as far as I can tell, there are no Democrats or any other party candidates running against him. Ergo, this will continue to be a Republican seat.  (R) 

So, my conclusion for the Senate (updated 9/30 as a result of Larry Hogan saying he won't vote for Trump.) is there will be at least four Democrat seats that will go Republican, two that may still go Republican and the Republican seats will remain Republican.  If this goes the way I'm predicting what happens on the first day the Senate meets to decide on the party's leadership will be more than interesting. I'm not just expecting to see an explosion, I'm expecting to see a nuclear bomb go off.

But there's so much more to this election.

On February 13, 2024 Lewis Dovland published this piece on American Thinker, Don’t be fooled by apparent Democrat incompetence in the election, saying: 

Are the wheels really beginning to come off the Democrat’s chances of keeping the Presidency in 2024, or is it a ruse? It appears they are behind the eight-ball as to having a winning presidential candidate, but are they really? Do Not Be Fooled............The Democrats eat, sleep, and breathe hard-core politics. Yet their national ‘bench’ of candidates seems empty, seemingly opening the door to a Republican president who could undo their progressive Marxist gains since 2008. Still, they still have some aces up their sleeves and are playing several angles.

I've said in the past the bench of the Democrat party is so weak and shallow, if they're were a professional baseball team they'd be in the basement in the standings.  Which Dovland delves into noting that the Democrats have a conundrum as a party.  They have an incompetent, corrupt, and dumb President who has completely lost what little he had, and a VP who never had it at all, and what to do about it.  Now, there are potentially optional candidates including:

The oleaginous Gavin Newsome..... Valerie Jarrett, Susan Rice, Eric Holder, Hillary, and the Obamas. 

UPDATE 2/26/24:  I would like to draw everyone's attention to this new Democrat Governor of Maryland, Wes Moore! I think he's worth putting on your watch list. He's impressive on a lot of levels, including his record, and so too is his family. He could be the dark horse candidate that's sprung on the Democrats at the convention.  RK

All that's been articulated by a lot of people, but the fact is that "bench" is weak and shallow to the point of being meaningless.  Trying to convince either Biden or Kamala to step away is like spitting in the wind and expecting not to get wet. Both dumb as dirt with egos so large there's insufficient room left in their brains for intelligence, or understanding.  It seems to me Biden will be the nominee because they now don't have a choice, with this exception, which the author discusses saying:

The Democrat primaries are of zero value; the real candidate will be named at the convention.

Update 7/31/24:  Little did anyone know how prescient that statement was since now Joe Biden has been forced out and Kamala Harris has been anointed without one vote being cast in her favor. RK

A nominee named at the convention is exactly what I think will happen, they have no other choice. But all their options are at best weak bench relief pitchers, and not a one of them is a closer and a winner.......except for voter fraud.  

It took massive voter fraud to make Biden President, and things are so bad for the Democrats they will perpetuate an even greater effort at voter fraud in 2024, and I believe it will be so massive they'll make 2020 look legitimate. 

But this administration has been so abysmal, I don't think they can muster enough to keep the White House, but the down card may be different, and that will be the key.  So, here's what I think the back room boys will do.

I think they'll become convinced the White House is gone, and they will do all they can to keep the Senate and take back the House.  So, let's do a little recap. There are 20 Democrat seats, 3 Independent seats, which is in reality Democrat seats, and 10 Republican seats up for grabs in the Senate in 2024.

Update: 10/15/24:  It appears to me, as of right now anyway, the most of Republican seats will remain Republican, but not all, even if there are different faces.  As I pointed out at the beginning, of those 23 D/I seats, as of 10/7/24.

New analysis:  I'm now back to believing there will be 5 Democrat seats that will go Republican one Republican seat that will go Independent, and I've moved another into the  50/50 category, making that 4, and two of those are Republican seats.  Right now there are 48 Democrats, 3 Independents, and 49 Republicans in the Senate, giving the Democrats a one seat majority.  

If the Republicans take the five I'm calling for them, and the four that are tossups go to the Democrats, along with the Independent taking a Republican seat that will make the Senate a 50/50 tie, meaning the Vice President  would be the tie breaking vote in the Senate.   I've come to the conclusion some of these seats will have to be taken on Trump's coattails.   But, since the Democrat/Independent contingent will vote in lock step, and too many RINO's who will typically vote with the Democrats, the Democrats will still control the Senate.  The actual numbers?  50 Democrat/Independents, anywhere from 6 to 10 RINO's at any give time, and 40 Republicans.  That gives the Senate a 60/40 potential edge over the Republicans.

I haven't done an analysis on the House, but the Republican House is filled with brainless, gutless, and feckless nitwits, which seeing it took two attempts to impeach Mayorkas, who was clearly guilty of high crimes and misdemeanors, demonstrates that.  As a result, they could lose the House. 

That means the Democrats will have to focus on the Senate, and if they lose the House, to work to take back, which I think the Republicans are more than capable of doing in spite of their fecklessness.   So we can expect all the chicanery and the massive voter fraud that will occur in 2024 to focus on the down card. Not enough to keep the White House, but enough to take the Congress.

The really big take away is the Democrats are a disaster, and are clearly working to destroy America, and it's institutions, and more are coming to that conclusion. The question is: Can Democrats muster enough fraudulent votes to overcome a massive voter rebellion against their party? Will there be a massive voter revolt against Democrats?   Save the Senate: Repeal the Seventeenth Amendment!

As the journalist in Charlies Wilson's War said: We'll See!