Lichtman's Thirteen Keys. Kamala Fails all Thirteen

By Rich Kozlovich

On October 23, 2024 this Townhall article appeared, "Allan Lichtman’s Keys Say Harris Will Win?"  It appears Lichtman, using his "keys" accurately predicted the out come of  "every presidential election since 1984 — except one", and claiming to use his "keys" he's calling the election for Kamala Harris.  Let's explore this.  

Since 1960 starting at age fourteen, out of the twelve elections that have taken place I've accurately predicted eleven of them.....sort of...... and we'll come back to that.

I accurately predicted Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon wins.  Then Carter surprised me, as it was clear to me he was a loser. Then I picked Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and Bush the Second.  

Obama's first and second victories were disappointments, and at the beginning I thought he would lose, but as the campaign progressed it came down to but looking at who the Republicans nominated, John McCain, and Mitt Romney, both loser RINO's who conservatives just refused to vote for, and it became clear Obama would win.   While I still maintain voter fraud played a role in both those elections, but given who he was running against, Obama didn't need that much.  I didn't pick Trump as the candidate, but after he was nominated I picked him for President, and then finally Biden surprised me again, but not because he won.  Because he didn't. 

Other than Carter, I failed to accurately predict the Biden "victory" was because voter fraud was massive, and that was the real factor, not the candidates.  I picked Trump, and he won, but the system was so corrupted, including the judiciary, Biden fraudulently sits behind the Resolute Desk.

 Taking that into consideration, I've accurately predicted eleven of the twelve candidates since 1960.   From a teenager who knew nothing, to a bug man who knows a lot, I've been able to see things clearly.   So saying Lichtman's accuracy rate is important is a load of horsepucky, and so is how he uses his Thirteen Keys.  I think the keys are valid, it's Lichtman who's the problem, and we'll come back to that also.  So, let's take a look at his Thirteen Keys.

1.  Party mandate, after the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. 

The Republicans took over the House. 

2. No primary contest There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. 

The Democrats forced Biden out and enthroned Kamala without one primary victory. 

3. Incumbent seeking re-election The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. 

Kamala is not he sitting President, and the seated President is depicted, accurately so, as having dementia or some other neurological problem. 

4. No third party There is no significant third party or independent campaign. 

Kennedy launched a fairly successful third party campaign, and then gave up and joined Trump.

I'm combining keys 5, 6 and 7.  Strong short-term economy. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign, and or, strong long-term economy with real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms, and major policy change, the incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. 

The economy is in recession, and if things aren't changed it will end up in depression.   Biden and the Democrats have failed miserably on all counts and are wanting to double down on all of their failed anti-American policies. 

8. No social unrest, meaning there is no sustained social unrest during the term. 

Sine the amount of social unrest is ubiquitous, that's an abject failure for the administration as crime and violence is spreading like a plague due to their criminal friendly policies and the mass illegal immigration of criminals, thugs, rapists, terrorists, and more, all of which they're saying they're going to double down on. 

9. No scandal.  The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. 

Well, I have to chuckle at that, as both Kamala and Walz are walking scandals of unending lies, corruption, potential treason, and even accusations of illegal sexual misconduct.  The book on Kamala is at best sordid, and the book on Walz runs the gaumet from weird, to treasonous, and worse in between. 

I'm combining 10 and 11.  No foreign or military failure, the incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs, and,  major foreign or military success, the incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. 

Starting in Afghanistan and ending with the Russo/Ukraine War, and the Israel/Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran War, all of the domestic/economic of the administration has been a total failure.  There have been no foreign/domestic policy in which they can claim success, unless they lie about their failures calling them successes, as the FBI did with their crime statistics. 

12.  Charismatic incumbent, the incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. 

Not only are Kamala and Walz not charismatic, they're an embarrassment, and on a daily basis.  And to such a degree many Democrat candidates don't want to campaign with them for fear what those two have will rub off on them in voter's eyes. 

13.  Uncharismatic challenger, the challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. 

Trump is, if anything, charismatic. This one is the beauty, as it's hard to explain how Lichtman can claim Trump isn't charismatic, but he does so in this manner: 

Dismissing "Trump’s charisma as not fitting his narrowly defined parameters, “You have to be the once in a generation, broadly inspirational candidate, cutting across partisan lines. Clearly, while Trump is a great showman, he appeals only to a narrow base. And, therefore,…he doesn’t fit the criteria of the keys. He’s no FDR.” 

Two things.  As the author points out he left out “national hero", which the author rightly argues, "Trump qualifies for, subsequent to his heroic response to the assassination attempt in Butler, PA."  And secondly his leftist bent is showing by calling a manure pile a rose garden. Kamala fails in all thirteen of his keys, and yet Lichtman says she'll win.  

The bug man says the only way she can win is through voter fraud on such a massive scale it will make the voter fraud that brought Biden into the White House look legitimate.  And my record is better than his because Trump won the 2020 election, and there's no way he could have predicted a Biden win based on his thirteen keys as Biden failed all of them and Trump succeeded all of them except social unrest, and that was deliberately perpetrated by the Democrats, and the Soros cabal of destructive globalist billionaires.  

Considering the issue of voter fraud and Joe Biden, the reality of my record is eleven out of twelve, and his real record is five out of seven, and Kamala's campaign is collapsing.  Even the owner of the far left wing newspaper, the Los Angeles Times, is passing on Kamala.  But not because she's a far left, Marxist nitwit.  It's because she's not far left enough enough to suit the owner, and that's the Democrat party now, and of the future.  

The question that should be in everyone's mind is what happens if the country manages to turn the House, the Senate, and the White House over to the Republicans in this election, what happens to the Democrat party?  

First, there will be leftist riots in all of America's major cities by BLM, Antifa, and all the other rioting gangsters funded by leftists.  Then the leadership will be challenged by the farthest of the far left and drive a stake into the heart of the party, because destructive far left nitwits like OAC are in districts that will keep voting for them forever, just like Mad Maxine, and the moderates will have already been driven out of the party, giving them total control.  There will be no third party because there no longer is a loyal opposition mentality in American politics because one of the parties is absolutely the party of treason.