P&D Geopolitics Edition: Russia

By Rich Kozlovich

 

I get irritated over so many articles that claim Russia's economy is growing alluding to the idea all is fine, and I have no idea where that comes from, over 30 percent of their budget is defense spending, and Russian industry still can't supply their military or meet the needs of their civilian population. 

 

When I read, analyze, and write about anything I start with this foundational truth: Everything is the basics.  Most things aren't as complicated as they're presented.  They all have root foundations to them and that's what has to be identified.  If what I'm reading violates "the basics" I know it's wrong, and all I have to do is gather sufficient information to explain why it's wrong.

 

Ekaterina Zolotova is one of the writers a Geopolitical Futures, and I think she's excellent, posted this subscription article, "The Russian economy will be bad in 2025, at least according to Russian citizens", saying the Russian people are not confident about their economy for the upcoming year.  With international sanctions for Russian aggression in Ukraine, and Russia's leaders inability to restructure their economy from an economy based on selling energy resources, to a finished product economy, they are incapable of meeting the needs of their civilian population, and the military. 

Think about this.  America has supplied massive amounts of military hardware to Ukraine, and others, to the detriment of America's ability to defend the nation, and now it's been reported America's ability to replace that material, rearm the American military, and create as stockpile will take years under the current system.  If America can't do it easily, Russia can't do it at all.  Which is what should be expected of a central planning economic system, all of which are always stunning stupid, and run by ideologically driven economic retards. 

 

They've failed to build an industrial base that can provide their army with their needs, actually buying military hardware from.... get this..... North Korea, and Iran.  How bad is that?  And worse yet, they brought in at least 10,000 N. Koreans to fight in their army, and they've been used as cannon fodder.  Some of them committing suicide to avoid capture in fear of what would happen in retaliation to their families in N. Korea for surrendering.  Why would they do that.  Because Putin's afraid of forcing his own population into the meat grinder the Ukraine War has become and potentially creating massive resistance to his rule.  

 

Russia will win in Ukraine, sort of, and it will be a massive loss to Russia.  The world's second army hasn't been able to beat the world's 22nd army in over two years.  They can't manufacture their own military hardware, they can't field their army with their own citizens, and the only reason they will win is because Ukraine is running out of people, along with the fact Zelenskyy and his cabal are totally corrupt and have no credibility, even with their own people.  I will say I am impressed with those who remain and are still fighting even though they must know it's a lost cause. 

 

After this is over, Russia will find they have no credibility, they can't afford to rebuild all the infrastructure they've destroyed, the population they hoped to absorb into the Russian population to help against their demographic time bomb is now either dead or fled the nation, and more will flee, giving Europe the manpower they claimed they needed justifying bringing in all these Muslim migrants ....the vast majority of whom are on welfare.... and they will suffer economically, no matter what deals are struck. 

 

Is it possible there will be a deal to save Ukraine in some fashion?  If anyone can broker such a deal I think it's Trump, and if Ukraine does continue to exist, that will further erode Russian, and especially Putin's credibility.  One thing is clear though, Putin's ruling class is committed to the idiotic idea that NATO wants to attack Russia, at least that's what they're promoting to the Russian population, whether they believe it or not, in order to justifying continuing their  military expenditures, and that's as far as the eye can see. 

 

One final thought.  Failed Russian leaders do not fare well, so, do you know why the Soviets didn't kill Khrushchev after they dethroned him?  I believe it was because during his reign there were attempts to overthrow him and when they failed, he didn't kill his adversaries.   And if I remember correctly, some remained in the government.  After the Stalin mass murdering depredations I think that shocked them, and Khrushchev lived out the rest of his life comfortably.

 

However, Putin has been a murderous thug, and anything less than a total occupation of Ukraine is a failure.  It's my view there will be an attempt to overthrow him, as I'm sure there's a Stauffenberg cabal in their government, and their military, and if he's overthrown, I think he will fall prey to a major accident, or have a major accident that avoids an overthrow.  Afterward  there will be a massive restructuring of their government, and their military, but will there be a massive restructuring of their thinking?  

 

Who knows, they're Russian, and Russia is a "hordesland" nation, hence their historical goal of conquering smaller nations at their borders to be barriers to attack.  While in times past that was understandable, but today, that's paranoia, unfortunately and that paranoia is almost inbred in Russians.