Friday, September 23, 2022

P&D Today


De Omnibus Dubitandum

By Rich Kozlovich 

Political Cartoons by Michael Ramirez

In yesterday's P&D Today I discussed Putin's failures and his options and had an update regarding his order to add  300,000 additional fighters.  And how's that working out?  Apparently it's not going over well as protests are breaking out all over Russia, and any criticism is met with dictatorial tyranny.  Wow, isn't that a shock.

The Russian population has been largely shielded from the reality of this "special military operation", but this "partial mobilization" has now driven home....this is a war, a war where he's already lost over 80,000 troops. 

Regional governments quickly began issuing orders for reservists -- a huge category covering people who served as conscripts, contract soldiers, and part-time officers -- to prepare to be summoned and banning them from leaving the area, according to Pavel Chikov, a lawyer who advises on conscription cases. Doctors in Moscow also received mobilization notices, he said on Telegram............Authorities in some cases came in the middle of the night to round up conscripts in order to fill the regional quotas that the military sets. ..........“They took my 40-year-old son at night,”.......... “Everyone who was taken in our village was over 40, not a single young one. They’ll grab anyone. There’s total panic and confusion.”

The number of people trying to leave Russia has surged, and it appears more than 30 cities are seeing protests over this call for new and far more troops.  And what happens when they send these "recruits" into battle?  Will it be different?  No.  They'll continue making the same mistakes they made before, only they'll being doing it with older recruits, less qualified troops, troops that can't be replaced, and most likely troops that will not be well led or properly supplied.

Russia has a demographic problem.  That all important 15 to 50 age group isn't nearly as large as it needs to be to support the retirees, expand the economy and serve in the military.  They have issues with drug resistant TB, AIDS, and addictions.  Putin only had sufficient manpower to man three of their seven defensive gaps before this mess, and now he has less, and they simply don't have the manpower or the economic wherewithal to occupy Ukraine.  

The west is going to expand their sanctions, and now England is....gasp.....going to start fracking.  Imagine that.  So much for European ignorant, arrogant, self righteous looking down their noses at America, and Donald Trump.  And now Russia is losing "friends" such as India.  

Because of the very real threat China represents to India, and their need for Russian military supplies, they've been on the sidelines refusing to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but Putin's shelling of civilians is clearly a war crime, and that's disturbed India and they've openly condemned that activity and is slowly creating a separation between them.

It's getting worse for Putin.  At the United Nations British Prime Minister Liz Truss has called for an economic NATO in order to "defend prosperity against the malevolent influence of authoritarian regimes like Russia and China." 

Well whaddayaknow, it appears there's a Prime Minister with clarity of vision regarding these enemies of western civilization.  I've been reading about this lady, and she's formidable.  She's sort of a "talk softly but carry a big stick" kind of leader.  But, we'll see.    

Will Putin use nukes?  I don't think so, but he can't retire as did Gorbachev or Khrushchev.  His been a beast and if he's out of power, I think he's dead, and he knows it.  But let's say he does use nukes what will the west do?  What they need to avoid is another Guns of August scenario that started with an assassination and was turned into a world war. If he does use nukes Russia will become a world wide pariah, that even China may have to abandon, and I don't even think the radical thugs he's surrounded himself with will let him do it.  

But, we'll see. 

In the meantime, it's Friday, my week is over, I've got a bunch of outside work to get done before the weather turns, it was 47 here last night, and I've only posted two commentaries today.  Enjoy!

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Constant as the North Star

 

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