Monday, July 26, 2021

Nothing Is Ever As It Appears In China: Military Intimidation

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pLIuFEt2p2w/X0pYX_kt1PI/AAAAAAAADAU/EdtdCWebrnMzJ2R5C6DcUUfdz52gM57uACK4BGAYYCw/w41-h54/My%2BPicture%2B2.jpg By Rich Kozlovich 

First, we have to understand that whenever you read anything about China you must see past what's written. China is a complicated country, with a long and profound history. China's culture is considered the world's oldest culture by many, and China houses most of its population, which is one quarter of the world’s population, in an area about the size of everything east of the Mississippi River in the United States, and they are ethnic Han. The rest of China is sparsely populated and mostly occupied by other ethnic groups that hate the Han and consider the central government illegitimate, and the general population has grown to doubt the legitimacy of the central government as a result of all the incompetence and corruption.

The government’s one child policy has created a large male/female imbalance in the population as a result there isn’t enough women to go around. This creates serious social consequences and dissatisfaction. Pollution is terrible and the government is spending huge amounts of money to keep everyone working, including building cities that no one occupies, and the banking system has troubles the government hides.

What is clear is the Chinese leadership is striving for two things. Social and economic stability, world dominance in both and continued central control of all things in the hands of the communist leadership. 

Make no mistake about it, they’re still commies, and commies are dictators, and so what do dictatorships do to distract the population from their problems? They start a war! Only this is far more problematic than it was decades ago.

 So who do you start a ruckus with? Taiwan, Japan, India or the maybe the Philippines? 

There are a handful of tiny Islands off the coast of China known as the Diaoyu in China and the Senkaku in Japan which are barren and uninhabited. These five islands “encompass a grand total of seven square kilometers” and were won from the Chinese in the first Sino-Japanese war of 1895. But after 1968 the Chinese decided that they wanted them back; after it was discovered “the islands may be sitting on top of huge oil and gas reserves”, which China has none.  A lot of coal, but no oil, or at best very little.

This gives the Chinese a potentially legitimate gripe, especially when you consider what the Japanese did to them in WWII and were then the losers of that war. By pushing this they then bring into play far more than these islands and its potential wealth. They create a Munich Moment. The real goal of the Chinese government is to be the big dog in the South China Sea and ultimately all of South East Asia. 

If they push this and win; it seriously weakens American influence, militarily and economically. The rest of the countries in the area then can be much more easily bullied into falling into line, including India and the Philippines, and of course even Australia.  But all these threats and seeming preparations for military action is triggering a backlash.  Taiwan is now building their own submarine, bypassing China's successful efforts blocking Taiwan's efforts to acquire one from other countries. 

Taiwan is also seeking "allies" in other non-neighboring nations like Lithuania:

Taiwan will set up its first office in Europe using the name “Taiwan,” drawing a rebuke from China and praise from the U.S. as the island democracy seeks to strengthen its diplomatic presence around the globe in the face of pressure from Beijing............. Taiwan’s other diplomatic outposts on the continent are under the name of “Taipei.”  “Lithuania has firmly believed in universal values such as democracy, freedom and human rights, and is a like-mined partner of Taiwan,”.....Taiwan and Lithuania are both at the strategic front line to safeguard democratic and free regimes.......Lithuania has firmly believed in universal values such as democracy, freedom and human rights, and is a like-mined partner of Taiwan.”

An outright war with these nations isn't going to happen, in spite of the threat to use nuclear weapons against Japan if they oppose an attack on Taiwan, with China saying they will make an exception in their first use policy in the case of Japan.  
And of course everyone believes them when they say they have a first use policy.  Right?  
The result?  
"Japan’s annual defense white paper issued on July 12, for the first time expressed concern for Taiwan’s stability, linking it to Japan’s national security."  
Article 9 of their Constitution prohibits war as a means to settle international disputes, however, they do have a Self Defense Force, albeit with restrictions.  Article 9 is being reinterpreted to understand that self defense my require acting in defense of allies, and they're building ships to do it.   Their conclusion?  
 “There are two sides … you can either join the West or you can join China,” 
According to Geopolitical Futures:
"Japan, France and the U.S. held trilateral drills on Japanese soil for the first time over the weekend. Australia joined in on Saturday for naval drills. Among all European powers expressing renewed interest in Indo-Pacific military affairs lately, France has perhaps the biggest direct interests at stake." 
While that's caused some turmoil in Japan, this kind of rhetoric from China gives impetus to such moves, and I've explained why I don't think there will be an attack on Taiwan in this June 13th article, and the conclusions I state there are now playing out.  
What they are doing is Waging Gray-Zone Warfare:
"......... gray-zone warfare can be divided into three levels: low, medium, and high. He said that the ‘high’ level includes nuclear posturing, military threats, large-scale clandestine operations that ‘create fait accompli situations,’ the use of special forces to deny mobilization of the target country’s military, and support of large-scale proxy wars........... the CCP’s actions have reached this highest level of gray-zone warfare.”............
 “China’s deployment of maritime militia around Philippine-claimed features in the West Philippine Sea and the rest of the South China Sea is an example. But Bautista, who is also former executive director of National Task Force West Philippine Sea, said gray zone tactics involved other means. ‘Even as we speak, war is being fought in the gray zone. In information and propaganda realm, economic and other areas.”
Infringement on the territorial waters of the Philippines, even using naval vessels to force the Philippines to allow fishing in their waters.  This another example of how the CCP simply ignores international law.  Understand this:  The CCP will honor no agreement or treaty once they decide it's inconvenient, just as they've done regarding all their violations of the Sino-British Joint Declaration regarding Hong Kong, which I will address later.
They practice what's been called "object lesson wars", such as the 1962 Sino-Indian War, which they've reenacted, as explained in this piece from the Jamestown Institute:  Expanding and Escalating the China-Bhutan Territorial Dispute, constantly claiming some piece of land or even an entire sea, as in the , belongs to them. 
("Himalayan squabbling. The end of winter in the Himalayas means the return of squabbling season along the Line of Actual Control, the Indian-Chinese disputed border. Both India and China appear to be positioning for another summer of skirmishes, reportedly doing drills and building out new infrastructure." From Geopolitical Futures)
The lessons to be gleaned from the 1962 Sino-Indian War, is the Chinese think they have a right to "punish" nations like India, Japan and the Philippines when those nations stand in their way or have something they want.   In the case regarding their invasion of India, the Indian military was ill-equipped and unprepared to deal with the Chinese.  Being communists, they play the bully.  China was the aggressor, as they were in Tibet, which I will deal with this in another post.  There was no declaration of war.  It was a sneak attack.  The world isn't going to be fooled now. 
Their goal is to neuter America's military status, not only in South East Asia, but worldwide, and it's a threefold attack.  Military, diplomatic and economic, all of which I will address later.  Militarily that's not so easy.  Below is a map published by Geopolitical Futures defining America's assets in South East Asia.
 
 
This whole thing is symptomatic of the problem with the Chinese government. 
  • They have a huge economy that may not be real.
  • They have a banking system that's an illusion. 
  • They have a huge national debt. 
  • They absolutely need trade with world to maintain their economy.
  • They don't have oil reserves. 
  • They have a huge military that may not be effective. 
  • They have competent economic neighbors in Japan, India and the Philippines, to whom China has made threatening moves. Economies they don’t really want to compete with because they may not be capable. 
  • They have a central planning system that is clueless, and an economy predicated on total employment, not profitability.  They were smart enough to leave Hong Kong alone because it was a huge money machine for the government, but they won't allow the nation to go down that path because it would destroy the elitists that run the country. A course of action they've now abandoned because they fear that kind of freedom Hong Kong had would spread to the mainland. 
  • They have serious internal problems with the general population, many of whom consider the central government illegitimate and staggeringly corrupt. 

The problem still remains that has been foundational of all of their problems since Mao. They’re still commies! They think like commies, they act like commies, ergo, they’re commies, and commies are now, and have always been, aggressive, unreasonable, murderous and failures at basic economics and human rights.  Both of which I will address in other pieces.  And they're staggeringly corrupt. 

Pay attention to this whole South East Asia economic situation. There is a reason China is expanding it's navy, including air craft carriers.  It's all an effort to instill an economic hegemony through Asia via military intimidation.  There are serious internal and/or external events in the offing with China that will impact the whole world, and the world is taking notice and recognizing China is the world's biggest threat, and one thing all this military intimidation has done is make everyone aware of how dangerous they are, and the world is going to react.  


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