Will China Attack Taiwan?

By Rich Kozlovich

On June 10th Kevin Catapano published a piece entitled, It looks like China is preparing for full-shock assault landing to retake Taiwan, saying: 

The Chinese military continues what appear to be preparations for a potential invasion of Taiwan, which threatens an eventuality that would force President Joe Biden to make an ugly foreign policy decision. According to the South China Morning Post, “The Chinese military has conducted an amphibious landing exercise in waters near Taiwan amid renewed tensions between Beijing and Washington.”

It makes sense that, in addition to testing missiles over Taiwanese airspace, the Chinese military would be practicing amphibious operations, given that these would be necessary to invade an island like Taiwan.

“As part of the exercise, wheeled amphibious armoured vehicles entered the dock of amphibious landing ships, which then sailed to a target sea area where the vehicles left the ship and steered towards a beach,” the Morning Post noted, based on footage provided by the Eastern Theatre Command of the People’s Liberation Army.

Additionally, China Central Television reported that “the 72nd Group Army explored the tactics of emergency loading, long-distance transport and beach assault under complicated sea situations, and boosted the troops’ amphibious combat support capabilities.” What is happening should be clear. China is emboldened.

Okay, that sounds scary.  But it's all what the Soviets called "maskirovka".  "The doctrine covers a broad range of measures for military deception, from camouflage to denial and deception."  In this case it's also diplomatic maskirovka.  

The Chinese know a few things:

• First, this landing they're practicing is just a big show.  The greatest military force in the world for amphibious landings is the U.S. Marines,  and it took more than practice to become good at it.  
• Secondly, they have to know their loses will be massive, in both men and equipment if they attempt such a landing.  Taiwan has a substantial military that would devastate such a landing force.
  
• Third, they have to know even the Biden administration, as stupid as they are, will have to jump in to save Taiwan, even if it's just involving U.S. air power, and that alone will devastate the Chinese Air Force, their Marine landing force, and any ships they may employ.  U.S. Naval aviators are the finest in the world.  That's why they're called Top Gun!
• Fourth, they know if they launch a landing and are repelled their military credibility throughout all of S. E. Asia will tumble like a house of cards, and they can't afford that since their attempting to impose an economic hegemony throughout all of Asia via military intimidation. 
• Fifth, such an action will trigger economic retaliation the CCP can ill afford.  China is actually broke, and I wish more people read the book Khrushchev's Cold War: The Inside Story of an American Adversary. as it outlines just how devastating all that military buildup was to their economy, and that was from the early 1950's, hence the need for maskirovka to make them bigger than they were.  China has the exact same problem. 

This is all show.  China is great at object lesson wars, such as the Sino-Indian war of 1962, and their latest dust up with India, their challenge of Philippine territorial waters, etc.   All show, all long range intimidation.  But they've not fought a real war since Korea, and they lost massive amounts of soldiers there.  Soldiers they just threw away with their tactics. 

Will they attack Taiwan?  No!  There are too many negatives and few positives for such an action, even it they were to win there would have to be long term political and economic consequences they can't afford.

What this will do is bring more American, Japanese, Indian, Australian, forces into the area, just as Soviet outrageous claims triggered an arms race that broke the Soviets back economically, this will trigger responses they won't like and can't handle.