What I'm Reading: Russia

By Rich Kozlovich Tags: The World's Nine Orders 

Some of what appears here is from subscription sites and I can't link the information, so, you will just have to take my word for it... or not.... as it please you.

Military Issues 

If you measure how long the Russo/Ukrainian War has gone on starting in 2014 with Russian's annexation of Crimea until now it's lasted 12 years.  But If you count from Putin's Special Military Operation where he invaded Ukraine in February of 2022 it's lasted four and a half years, and it's been devastating to both Ukraine and Russia, but considering the vast difference between Russia's military, population, and economy, the real loser is Russia in my view.  

Russia's demographic pyramid before this war was a mess and it was estimated by 2040 ethnic Russians would be a minority in their own country.  That's no longer true as Putin has devastated the age group that makes the babies, creates an economy, and does the work.  Fifteen years ago Russia believed it has seven defensive positions they must man, but they only had the manpower to man three of them fully.  It seem clear they must not have the manpower for those three now.    

In July alone Russia lost 42,860 soldiers, killed and wounded, with Russia's total casualties amounting to around 1.5 million, and in spite of recruitment efforts, he's running out of soldiers having to use an estimated 30,000 to 50,000 North Koreans troops adding to the 15,000 N. Korean troops already there to take the place of Russian soldiers who just don't exist, with N. Korea deploying a missile unit in western Russia.  

Putin has become so desperate in recent months, he’s had to lure his countrymen to join the war effort with false promises of “quiet service” — or recruit Africans under similarly deceitful schemes.

According the Zelenskyy (correct spelling by the way) "This is the first time in Russia's history when they no longer have a strategic reserve", and without North Korea Russia is sunk, but that's from Zelenskyy, and his trustworthiness is subject to debate.  Allegedly Putin is now going backwards in equipment and deploying post WWII-era tanks.  I do think that's a reality for Putin as his ability to manufacture military hardware was already in the toilet.  He not only has insufficient man power for his military, he has insufficient man power to fill his needs in factories.   

"Russian President Vladimir Putin signed orders to negotiate amendments to existing military-technical cooperation agreements with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. The agreements regulate the supply of weapons and military equipment, the exchange of military products, and the transfer of technology and documentation."

Ukraine was on the receiving end for most of this war but now they've pushed Russian troops back "more than seven miles on the southern front, near the intersection of the Dnipro, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, through small attacks to gradually erode Russian control gradually."  They're also launching long range missile, jet aircraft, and drone attacks deep inside Russia causing serious damage to both military objectives, "an oil depot and and  a state-run aerospace center."

1. Ukraine Attacks Russia’s Samara Industrial Site as Kyiv Ramps Up Long-Range Strikes
2. Ukrainian drone attack on Russian city of Nizhnekamsk kills 12, authorities say 
3. Ukraine, Russia Trade Blows As War of Attrition, Innovation Continues

Economic and Social Issues

Russia has been the big energy supplier for Europe, China and India, and Russia can't function without that trade and sanctions have had a major impact on them, having to use a "shadow fleet" to avoid western price caps, and even working to created Arctic shipping lanes and wants to develop a rail link to the Indian Ocean to avoid disruptions of traffic via the Bosporus Strait and the Strait of Hormuz.  Which would be massive economic and diplomatic effort dealing with "Turkmenistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan", and I don't think he's capable of such an effort.  Currently refining bottlenecks have forced Russia to import fuels from other nations.

Russia's energy problem. Belarusian gasoline and diesel fuel exports to Russia reached a record high in July amid fuel shortages driven by repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries. Belarusian gasoline supplies to Russia increased 13 percent last month compared with June, while diesel shipments doubled. To address the shortage, the Russian government on Wednesday adopted a resolution permitting the production, import and release of lower-quality types of gasoline until July 1, 2027.

The Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia region is experiencing a "critical" water supply problem related to disruptions in electricity supplies, the regional governor said. Work is being done around the clock to restore deliveries, Yevhen Balitsky said. His comments come amid escalating Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia.

Russia’s economy has defied the skeptics. Cracks are getting harder to hide  Russia’s wartime economy is still growing, but analysts say the headline data mask deeper strain.  Civilians appear to be feeling the squeeze, with households trading down to cheaper and store-brand foods as real incomes come under pressure.  Analysts do not expect economic stress alone to end the war in Ukraine. Some warn worsening conditions could instead incentivize President Vladimir Putin to escalate it. 

After four-and-a-half years of full-scale war with Ukraine, Russia has become a two-tier economy.“If you are lucky and you’re employed by a tank production company, then everything’s good. Otherwise, you are probably facing problems,” Alex Kolyandr, director for Europe at consulting firm Eurasia Group, told CNBC.

Russia’s wartime economy has been brought into sharper focus in recent weeks by Ukraine’s long-range drone attacks on oil refineries and delivery warehouses. Though it has defied expectations and is even growing slowly, according to recent data, analysts say this masks problems, such as the Kremlin’s reliance on military spending, higher taxes and subsidized bank lending.

Putin's all upset that Germany is participating in French nuclear exercises wanting to know if Germany is trying to acquire nuclear weapons.  Ya just gotta see the humor in that.  Putin threatens Ukraine and even European nations with a potential nuclear attack and then is shocked and upset these nations might want their own nuclear deterrent.  There was a time when it was thought Putin really was sharp, but time and circumstances keep making him look like what he really is.  A fool, and one that's in trouble and afraid.  

Other Issues

 Note:  Some of this is being quoted from Geopolitical Futures subscription site and can't be linked. RK

1. Belarus  Military Buildup Is About Survival Minsk is trying to keep pace with its neighbors rising defense spending and protect a long-neglected border.   
2. Russia has threatened Ireland with serious consequences if its armed forces help detain merchant vessels suspected of involvement in Russia's "shadow fleet", Russian Ambassador to Dublin Yuri Filatov said. He made the comment in response to the passage of a bill last month allowing Ireland's military to board ships to prevent violations of sanctions against Russi
3. Azerbaijan: Very Small, Very Significant - Azerbaijan is a small country in the South Caucasus, a region that was part of the Soviet Union until  most of its constituent parts became independent in 1991. After Vladimir Putin came to power,  Russia tried to retake the region in 2008, first by invading Georgia. The invasion failed, and the Caucasus was left independent of Moscow 
4.  South Africa and Russia have agreed to defense ties.  Don't ask me to explain this one as it's beyond me other than perhaps Putin is looking to recruit South Africans as troops.   South Africa and Russia have agreed to defense ties.   
5. Russia is in talks with China, India and others about developing Siberia's Angara-Yenisei cluster for deep processing of rare earths, according to Alexander Maslennikov, the deputy secretary of the Russian Security Council. He said partners were interested despite potential restrictions on access to technology, payment issues and the risk of secondary sanctions.
6. Zelensky: Russia Providing Iran With Satellite Imagery Of US Bases - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Saturday he will share evidence with the United States showing Russia is assisting Iran in targeting U.S. bases in the Middle East via satellite surveillance.
7. New ideas needed. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed the Russia-Ukraine war with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Manila. After the meeting, in which Lavrov reiterated Moscow's readiness to negotiate on the basis of proposals from last year's U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska, Rubio said new ideas were needed.  My Take - I think this is interesting as now all of a sudden Putin thinks the deal negotiated wasn't so bad after all.  I see Putin as a clueless desperate man running out of people around him he can trust or ideas that will get him out of the mess he created.  RK
8. According to news sources Trump frequently uses separate phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to try to broker an end to the war in Ukraine. These high-level diplomatic contacts often involve discussions on front-line conditions, potential ceasefires, and upcoming international summits.