By Rich Kozlovich
Outright conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for 12 years, ever since Russia annexed Ukraine's Eastern area and Crimea. The current conflict has gone on for 4 1/2 years and has devastated both nations economically and demographically.
Russia's demographic problems were already substantial long before Putin invaded Ukraine outright, but now it's gone beyond a "problem", it's a crisis for Russia, even if no one is admitting it. He's had tremendous difficulty recruiting men for his army for a number of reasons so now he's decided to reinstate "martial education for students", which was a traditional social paradigm in all the Soviet Union states, including Ukraine, which is following suit now. But there's a difference.
It's been said "generals always fight the last war", and that's what Russia's doing, while Ukraine is forced into fighting tomorrow's wars.
Russia is pushing for boots on the ground and Ukraine is pushing for more and better technology involving drone warfare, especially since Ukraine doesn't have the population necessary to offset Russia's population. It's a matter of mathematics, and for Ukrainians, "mobilization is still a source of public discontent." So they've chosen a different path toward militarization of their population. Technology, as in drone warfare. Their program toward militarization involves "building a network to train more drone operators, engineers and designers." Geopolitical Futures notes:
At first, Kyiv relied on private companies to organize summer schools. Gradually, it developed a nationwide network of private schools that today graduates thousands of drone specialists each year. Still, the supply of drone experts was failing to meet the demands of Ukraine's military, suggesting a need to transform public education in the country. At this point, robotics is better integrated into Ukraine's formal education system than drone training, which is usually offered as an elective course or through training at vocational schools, special university programs or specialized centers.
The conclusion some have come away with is all this won't stop the war and will merely strengthen "internal cohesion", but the fact is war is... expensive.... and neither nation has the economic wherewithal to continue this indefinitely.
This is part of what historians call a "historical cycle", of which there are six stages. We're at the end stages of this current cycle, and all end stages are filled with violence and economic downturns. Currently, depending on who you read, we're at the end of the fifth stage or the beginning of the six stage. The six stage is often defined by revolutions and civil wars, and it seems clear that's a very real potential, and in my view, that's coming to Russia. Will Ukraine face that same consequence? It's quite possible! If reports are to be believed, their government is blatantly corrupt, and their people despise them. I could see a violent overthrow of their current government.
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