Japan's Road: Past, Present and Future

 By Rich Kozlovich, Updated 10:00 AM and October 15, 2:30 AM

I'm a subscriber to Geopolitical Futures, which I highly recommend, as a result, I get updates on every political issue going on around the world daily.  While many of the issues seemingly appear very small, the potential long term consequences are very real.  

 

As an example, how much to you know about, Conflict in the Caucasus and the New American Strategy?   Or the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.  That area of the world is now, and has always been, a flash point, but you will not see very much of this in the mainstream media.  Turkey is part of the scene, and Turkey has been in the news a lot lately, but I think most of what we're reading is horsepucky, however, this free piece, As Turkey’s Economy Goes, So Goes Its Ambitions, by Caroline D. Rose gives a much better analysis than we normally see. 

 

To be clear, I don't get anything for promoting them. They have a crew of writers who are generally young, brilliant and dedicated, often specializing in one area of the world, which gives them a deeper historical perspective than you would normally expect to see. 

 

I don't always agree with them, but I'm unendingly impressed with their work, and that's what P&D is all about.  P&D is a not for profit passion dedicated to the mission of promoting history and reality in order to define what's actually happening in the world.   At my age, I hope I'll still be able to fulfill the goals of that mission for a while longer.  

Phillip Orchard posted this piece, Japan’s Glacial Ascendance, which is a free article,  excellently drawing a picture of what's wrong with, and good about, Japanese politics and geopolitics, and the careful road they're always walking. 

 

I believe they also recognize the Bretton Woods era is over and will have to travel this mine laced road on their own far more than in the past.  An Asian NATO is talked about a great deal, but all these countries remember what the Japanese did during WWII, especially South Korea, who are also trying to find their way through that same mine field, but like Japan, without as much U.S. support, and they’re not forgetting easily.

 

However, I do think China, who, in my opinion, foolishly attempting to impose a military/economic hegemony on Asia, and with their rhetoric and posturing, they're going to become so scary that India, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Australia and the Island nations of S.E. Asia, may feel it necessary to create a weak consortium of allies against China, and none of them want a shooting war with China. 

 

A similar scenario came into play with the Soviet Union and the United States.  They convinced the world they really were a major military power capable of defeating, or at the least, devastating the west, triggering a massive military buildup they were completely incapable of competing with.  Consequence of that?  They went broke and ceased to exist, and that problem continues for Russia. 

 

Russia, and China’s whole foreign policy foundation is based on bluffing everyone to do their will.  Do this or I’ll be mad.  Do this or I won’t trade with you.  Do this or else….blah, blah, blah.  But China’s not in a position to be drawing long term red lines in the sand anymore than was Obama.  

 

America is essential to their military buildup and maintenance.  We’ve been funding it with trade since the Nixon administration, and that’s ending with Trump, who is capable of seeing a enemy as an enemy.  The long term consequences of tariffs, or even diminished trade, will be devastating to China’s CCP. 

 

China doesn’t want a real shooting war either, as they’re incapable of winning it, even against smaller countries, and they know it.  That’s why they only conduct object lesson wars as with India in 62.  But that’s not playing out well for them this time, and if they really get into it and lose, their entire foreign policy ceases to be meaningful.

 

They’re incapable of continuing their massive military budget, and they’re incapable of creating a natural capital generating economy.  End result?  Even a weak Asian NATO wins!  But Japan must be the driving force for it to come into being, but their politics, along with their history, is a daunting force against it. 

 

But, as the reporter in Charlie Wilson’s War said: We’ll See! 

 

Editor's Note:  Here's a post by Pat Buchanan you might find useful.   Is War With China Becoming Inevitable?

 

Update:   Japan plans to sign an agreement allowing it to export defense equipment and technology to Vietnam, part of its push to bolster the defense capabilities of Indo-Pacific nations to counter Chinese maritime advances.

Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced Tuesday that he will make his first foreign trip in his new job next week, visiting Vietnam and Indonesia. He is expected to sign the Vietnam deal as part of this.

Security cooperation is expected to emerge as a key topic in Suga's meetings with the countries' leaders. Vietnam in particular faces competing claims with China in the South China Sea, where Beijing continues to build up islands and its military presence. A China Coast Guard vessel also collided with a Vietnamese fishing vessel in the waters this April.