Who Do You Trust? The Polls or Your Lying Eyes?

The World as I See It!

By Rich Kozlovich

In Our Group, an ecletic e-mail group to which I belong, the issue of polls has come up a number of times, showing how Trump is way behind, and Biden is a shoo-in to become President.  Before these insane lockdowns and restrictions were put into place I used to regularly have breakfast with my "old men's breakfast clatch", and this was also a topic of conversation, with one of them snarkily saying, "Trump is so screwed"!  All because of the polls. 

My comment to everyone has been the same from the start.  I stopped believing in polls twenty five years ago because so often what they reported was in direct opposition of what I was seeing and hearing.  Of course, every geographic area is a little different.  If you poll people from  New York City you're not going to get the same results as you would from upper New York state. 

When Reagan was elected Susan Sontag, who is described as a "writer, filmmaker, philosopher, teacher, and political activist. She mostly wrote essays, but also published novels", and was also a lesbian; was shocked Reagan was elected, because "she didn't know one person who voted for him!"  Really?  Wow!  That's a shocker!  You're surprised, right?

These left wing misfits live in a self congratulatory echo chamber of head nodders, all of whom believe they're America, while the rest of the nation is filled with nothing more than a bunch of ignorant, stupid, deplorable Bible believing gun owners.  And since they're not America, they don't count. 

Well, there's one problem with that.  As in the case of most leftists, they're suffering from a serious case of weird compounded by a massive infection of hubris.  

It's the "deplorables, who are America.  You know the type.  They get up every morning and go to work, pay their bills, raise their children with traditional values and only want to be left alone.  These misfits from California, New York and other leftist enclaves are never satisfied to live their lives as they see fit.  They demand everyone accept how they define reality and change accordingly to make their views the social paradigm of America, and all of America must conform, or else!  

And they call Trump a fascist!

Here's the lesson that's going to be learned after this election.  In spite of the left's control of academia, the courts, the media and entertainment: They are not America!  And when all of these left wing enclaves go bankrupt ----- guess who they're going to demand bail them out?   The stupid, ignorant deplorable Bible toting gun owners who just want to be left alone!  

So now, if I think polls are a load of horsepucky, and I do, what do I think tells the tale?

Two articles really caught my eye yesterday, Why the Polls May be Wrong Again. by G. Murphy Donovan, and Barack Obama: How the mighty are fallen, by one of my favorite writers, Andrea Widburg.

In the first piece Donovan notes:

Polls and pundits were wrong across the board prior to the 2016 presidential election.   Indeed, the anti-Trump spin was so universal with pollsters and journalists in the last presidential election, that even three and a half years later, it’s hard to believe that there wasn’t a conspiracy to cook the books to discourage Trump voters.

He goes on to use the term, Flyover Phantoms in describing why the"deplorables" aren't taken into consideration saying: 

Pollsters agree on one thing: rural voters are notoriously hard to reach for surveys. Explanations are self-evident. Blue collar America, the “deplorables,” are still working. Urban Americans, government employees, and the public schools are on paid leave for the COVID epidemic. One in four Americans, liberal to a fault, works for government or academia at all levels. The usual urban suspects may be over represented in polls. Biden voters, largely an urban demographic, are thus still at home; answering the phone and available to skew the curve.

He also notes that Republicans, independents and others who like Trump, have become afraid to publicly state their support for Trump. And for good reason.  In one area those with Trump signs in their yard were sent letters telling them their houses were going to be burned down, which read:

 

“Dear neighbors,”....... “You have been identified by our group as being a Trump supporter.” “Your address has been added into our database as a target for when we attack should Trump not concede the election,”........ “We recommend that you check your home insurance policy and make that it is current and that it has adequate coverage for fire damage.”

These letter writers are a "group"?  And this "group", has them in their data base?  And they're a target if in some fashion they offend the "group"?  Tell me, supposing there isn't one person masquerading as "group", does that sound like a "group" that believes in American Democracy?  Or, is this a "group" that believes in terrorism, intimidation, violence and hate?  

 And they call Trump a fascist!  

In Widburg's piece she lays foundation for what's to follow by saying:

Once upon a time, Barack Obama had the world at his feet. Tens of thousands of adoring people would come to see him, and often women would react to him as teens once reacted to Frank Sinatra, by fainting away in his presence. Now, though, not so much. Obama is stumping for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, and the magic is gone. 

 

Nowadays, Obama is drawing crowds that only number in the tens and maybe the hundreds.

And in comparison to Trump?  

Meanwhile, here’s footage (follow this link to the article to see the footage) from Donald Trump’s rally, not in Philadelphia, but in Erie, Pennsylvania, population 95,508: It’s true that Obama draws bigger crowds than Biden. But that’s not saying much when you consider that just 12 years ago, Obama was a political god. If I were a betting woman, I would bet that Obama’s efforts on Biden’s behalf will not change the outcome of the upcoming election.

So, what do I view as the way to determine what's America's views on an election?  Here's my rule: Don't show me polls, show me crowds and show me yard signs.  

Trump is crashing the numbers at his rallies, so that's a given observable factor.  However, this year the yard sign rule isn't as significant as in the past, for reasons I described above, Trump supporters are afraid.  

But that's not the big yard sign story.  The big story is, except in expected areas, there are few Biden signs.  And even in those expected areas, there are fewer Biden signs than usual.   

Unlike Trump supporters, the Biden people aren't being targeted by Republicans or conservatives with violence for their support of Biden, so they have no reason to be afraid to show their support.   

Can we reason there are few Biden signs because there are far fewer Biden supporters, even among Democrats?  I think so!