The coronavirus outbreak and its impact on Chinese politics is probably the most important event for China since Mao’s “Great Leap Forward.” China’s long history suggests there is a pattern to these events that ends with the old regime being swept away and replaced by another.
China’s Communist Party has let the cat out of the bag. Things are so bad for their country right now that they fear the coronavirus outbreak could threaten President Xi Jinping’s grip on absolute power.
It’s possible, especially if reports about the extent of the outbreak are to be believed. (In all likelihood, the severity of the outbreak is being downplayed). American policymakers would do well to consider that a fundamental political shift may be underway in China, as thousands of Chinese continue to chafe under the increasing authoritarianism of President-for-life Xi.
And, while Xi’s fall from power would be a moral good, the question of what comes after his reign (or how Xi fights to retain power after China’s current crisis abates) is likely to be just as dangerous to the United States as the status quo.
Throughout China’s long history, the dynastic cycle has often come in waves: first a regime is given the “Mandate of Heaven.” It is the source of legitimacy. The regime then quickly engages in a campaign of national greatness and expansion. From there, however, the regime becomes corrupt and unresponsive to the needs of the people. Disunity soon follows—emanating first from the hinterlands and then from the center of power itself.
Historically, rebellions and plagues were viewed by the Chinese people as signs that the Chinese emperors of old had lost their mandate and they waited for a new, morally upright, and strong ruler to replace the emperor. Inevitably, that new regime would lose the mandate just as certainly as its predecessor did and the dynastic cycle will follow a very similar pattern........To Read More.....
It’s possible, especially if reports about the extent of the outbreak are to be believed. (In all likelihood, the severity of the outbreak is being downplayed). American policymakers would do well to consider that a fundamental political shift may be underway in China, as thousands of Chinese continue to chafe under the increasing authoritarianism of President-for-life Xi.
And, while Xi’s fall from power would be a moral good, the question of what comes after his reign (or how Xi fights to retain power after China’s current crisis abates) is likely to be just as dangerous to the United States as the status quo.
Throughout China’s long history, the dynastic cycle has often come in waves: first a regime is given the “Mandate of Heaven.” It is the source of legitimacy. The regime then quickly engages in a campaign of national greatness and expansion. From there, however, the regime becomes corrupt and unresponsive to the needs of the people. Disunity soon follows—emanating first from the hinterlands and then from the center of power itself.
Historically, rebellions and plagues were viewed by the Chinese people as signs that the Chinese emperors of old had lost their mandate and they waited for a new, morally upright, and strong ruler to replace the emperor. Inevitably, that new regime would lose the mandate just as certainly as its predecessor did and the dynastic cycle will follow a very similar pattern........To Read More.....
No comments:
Post a Comment