Friday, August 18, 2017

China and India Guard Against the Preposterous

By George Friedman Aug 18, 2017

China and India have been locked in a military standoff in a remote section of the Himalayas for a couple of months. At first it appeared to be the latest of the minor clashes that have flared between the countries for decades. But this time it has lasted longer than usual. There are two questions to be answered. The first is what is the geopolitical interest, if any, that is driving the standoff? The second is why is it happening now?......To Read More....

My Take - I found this commentary interesting and since they say "we value your thoughts and opinions", I send my thoughts back. No one has ever responded so I have no idea if anyone reads them, but here are my thoughts.
Dear Mr. Friedman,
I enjoyed your commentary, but the thing that keeps coming back to me is what is the gain for either country to invade. China's economy is fraudulent and they know they can't afford such an endeavor.  India's is much better, so why would they want to invade China? 
China's an economic, ethic and bureaucratic mess filled with such massive corruption it's amazing they get anything done.The ethnic Han are hated by all the other ethnic groups, who consider China's government to be illegitimate, and most of the areas you highlight have low populations with terrains that are either mountainous or arid, with societal paradigms that have been foundational for centuries.  China isn't a truly modern nation - it's a mess!  
When China's economy collapses - and I expect that in less than ten years, and maybe as little as five -Tibet will become totally independent, outer reaches of China are now and have been ruled by local commies making up the rules as they go along, potentially turning China into a "former" nation once again ruled by war lords. 
Most of the Chinese population of almost one and a half billion people live in an area no bigger than the land mass East of the Mississippi River in the U.S. When they collapse starvation will become so severe they'll be begging India for food. So what do I think is really happening?  
I think this is just another one of China's object lesson military actions as was the 1962 action against India.  The difference now is India was completely shocked their fellow socialists would invade them, but that's not going to happen now and China knows it.  
But the Chinese just wanted to give their neighbors an intimidation smack in the head.  That same mentality is at play now as what China wants to do is create an Eastern Asia economic hegemony though intimidation.  They're doing it with Japan, the Phillipines and attempting to thwart the U.S. with their territorial claims in international waters.  They need to keep America's Navy out, which is why they're wasting money on aircraft carriers with out of date Russian technology.   
That may have been a viable plan under Obama or Clinton, but that won't work now.  
At any rate - interesting commentary.  
Best Wishes, 
Rich Kozlovich
Paradigms and Demograhics

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