It's a Purge, and a Tell!

By Rich Kozlovich

This is a May 20, 2024 FREE article by George Friedman at Geopolitical Futures (I recommend subscribing) , A Government Shakeup in Moscow saying;

The Russian government announced last week a massive shakeup of its senior staff. Several ministers in civilian sectors such as energy, agriculture, industry and trade, and transportation were relieved of their positions, but the most notable departure was Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who was replaced by Andrei Belousov, a former assistant to Vladimir Putin and a former minister of economic development............Putin has made every effort to dismiss the idea that the team that managed the war failed............[yet] one senior Defense Ministry official was arrested and charged with corruption. Whether this is a single event or the beginning of more arrests (or worse) is yet unknown.........  But after two years and limited advances, you don’t need a diversion of weakness. It’s already there.

 

It's being emphasized this isn't a Stalinist style purge, but lets not lose sight of the fact Putin is a vile murderous monster, corrupt to the core, and ex-KGB Colonel who surrounded himself with incompetent sycophants, both in the military and in the domestic arenas.  To understand what's going on we really do need to get that, and this really is a purge. 

 

I've said for some time there's a Claus von Stauffenberg cabal within Putin's military, and truth be told, I think there's Stauffenberg style cabal within their domestic leadership also.   And while this isn't a Stalinist purge, it's a purge nonetheless. 

 

Ukraine is running out of people, their government officials are still corrupt, and clearly corrupt beyond the pale.  Furthermore, they really are now a fascist regime, and from reports they've lost the confidence of Ukrainian people, who are avoiding conscription by fleeing the country and saying they're not planning on returning....ever.

 

Update 5/21/24, 4:51 PM - I guess Zelenskyy (correct spelling by the way) Hasn't stolen enough yet, so,  Zelensky now ruling under martial law after suspending elections until after war

 

Putin will not give up, no matter the economic or military costs, because if he stops, he's out.  And just like Stalin, it's not "the plan" that's at fault, it's the failure to implement "the plan" properly, and so those who've failed "the plan" have to suffer the consequences, and it's a purge.

 

As they say in poker, it's also a "tell".  Tells are noticing small behaviors and/or demeanor when the pressure is on, and this is a tell he's losing confidence, and he's scared.  If NATO countries engage in this mess with boots on the ground, it's over for Putin, since the demographics will change dramatically, and that's his only real advantage.   Here's a map provided in George's article.

 

 

 

After two years of failure, with massive losses in equipment and man power, they're launching a new offensive, but he can't fund or train his military properly, his military leadership is incompetent, and he can't even manufacture his military needs, and what he has is substandard.   He's being forced to buy military hardware from N. Korea and Iran, can you imagine that!  Seeing that does not give credence to Russia's industrial abilities, or the competence of those dealing with the nations domestic/economic issues, after all, they're still commie central planners and Putin sycophants.  Will this push also stall and add more failure? 

 

He has on a number of occasions threatened using nukes, but I don't think his military will allow him to do that, and if he tries, I think they're overthrow him.  The Soviets overthrew Khrushchev for a whole lot less, but Khrushchev wasn't feared as the monster  as Stalin was, and Putin isn't Khrushchev, who didn't execute people who tried to overthrown him at one time.  Putin will execute anyone who attempts a coup. 

 

One writer described Washington as high school with paychecks, it's even worse in Putin's regime.  He's surrounded by incompetent sycophants with no solutions in sight!  This really is a purge, and he's scared.