It's a Purge, and a Tell!

By Rich Kozlovich

This is a May 20, 2024 FREE article by George Friedman at Geopolitical Futures (I recommend subscribing) , A Government Shakeup in Moscow saying;

The Russian government announced last week a massive shakeup of its senior staff. Several ministers in civilian sectors such as energy, agriculture, industry and trade, and transportation were relieved of their positions, but the most notable departure was Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who was replaced by Andrei Belousov, a former assistant to Vladimir Putin and a former minister of economic development............Putin has made every effort to dismiss the idea that the team that managed the war failed............[yet] one senior Defense Ministry official was arrested and charged with corruption. Whether this is a single event or the beginning of more arrests (or worse) is yet unknown.........  But after two years and limited advances, you don’t need a diversion of weakness. It’s already there.

 

It's being emphasized this isn't a Stalinist style purge, but lets not lose sight of the fact Putin is a vile murderous monster, corrupt to the core, and ex-KGB Colonel who surrounded himself with incompetent sycophants, both in the military and in the domestic arenas.  To understand what's going on we really do need to get that, and this really is a purge. 

 

I've said for some time there's a Claus von Stauffenberg cabal within Putin's military, and truth be told, I think there's Stauffenberg style cabal within their domestic leadership also.   And while this isn't a Stalinist purge, it's a purge nonetheless. 

 

Ukraine is running out of people, their government officials are still corrupt, and clearly corrupt beyond the pale.  Furthermore, they really are now a fascist regime, and from reports they've lost the confidence of Ukrainian people, who are avoiding conscription by fleeing the country and saying they're not planning on returning....ever.

 

Update 5/21/24, 4:51 PM - I guess Zelenskyy (correct spelling by the way) Hasn't stolen enough yet, so,  Zelensky now ruling under martial law after suspending elections until after war

 

Putin will not give up, no matter the economic or military costs, because if he stops, he's out.  And just like Stalin, it's not "the plan" that's at fault, it's the failure to implement "the plan" properly, and so those who've failed "the plan" have to suffer the consequences, and it's a purge.

 

As they say in poker, it's also a "tell".  Tells are noticing small behaviors and/or demeanor when the pressure is on, and this is a tell he's losing confidence, and he's scared.  If NATO countries engage in this mess with boots on the ground, it's over for Putin, since the demographics will change dramatically, and that's his only real advantage.   Here's a map provided in George's article.

 

 

 

After two years of failure, with massive losses in equipment and man power, they're launching a new offensive, but he can't fund or train his military properly, his military leadership is incompetent, and he can't even manufacture his military needs, and what he has is substandard.   He's being forced to buy military hardware from N. Korea and Iran, can you imagine that!  Seeing that does not give credence to Russia's industrial abilities, or the competence of those dealing with the nations domestic/economic issues, after all, they're still commie central planners and Putin sycophants.  Will this push also stall and add more failure? 

 

He has on a number of occasions threatened using nukes, but I don't think his military will allow him to do that, and if he tries, I think they're overthrow him.  The Soviets overthrew Khrushchev for a whole lot less, but Khrushchev wasn't feared as the monster  as Stalin was, and Putin isn't Khrushchev, who didn't execute people who tried to overthrown him at one time.  Putin will execute anyone who attempts a coup. 

 

One writer described Washington as high school with paychecks, it's even worse in Putin's regime.  He's surrounded by incompetent sycophants with no solutions in sight!  This really is a purge, and he's scared.

The World as I See It, June 4, 2021

Truth is the sublime convergence of history and reality.  

By Rich Kozlovich

Typically I find I see the world just a little differently than most.  I can't explain why, but I try to see farther, deeper and wider than everyone else, mostly because nothing is really ever as it appears.  There's always more to the story.

Also, I spend a lot of time reading history and the commentaries of those who follow world events.  I've been doing it all my life, and so I have a lot of stored concepts that come out in my writing, and I've adopted what's supposed the motto of science as my own. De omnibus dubitandum.  "Everything is to be questioned".  

I subscribe to Geopolitical Futures as a result I get notifications on everything publicly going on in the world (I recommend subscribing) and this leads me to seeking out information from other sources dealing with the subjects they're highlighting.   I've compiled some of their Daily Memo stuff here from yesterday and day before that I think is important to share with you.  I edited what I think will be of long term consequence, even if it appears not so big a deal now.   

Their highlights take me to other sites for information, which I linked in order to attempt give a broader and deeper understanding of events.  

All big events start out small, and it's a crap shoot which will turn into something profound for the world.   In short, it's all guesswork based on finding and seeing the patterns of life, which repeat over and over again.  And if you see them correctly, you're ahead of the curve.  But either way, it's all guesswork.  I'll be sharing my guesses with you, and you can pick and choose for yourself. 

Enjoy.  

Unseating Bibi. Israeli opposition parties reached a deal on Wednesday to form a government and unseat current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The coalition consists of Naftali Bennett’s Yamina party and Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party as well as an Islamist party called the United Arab List led by Mansour Abbas. Under the agreement, Bennett would serve as prime minister for two years and then be replaced by Lapid. Israeli ambassadors to the United Arab Emirates and Greece have already said bilateral relations will not be significantly affected by the change in government.

My Take – This is a mess in the making as these three groups are at odds with each other’s goals, visions and views of what Israel is and what it should be.   Bennet is allegedly far right.  It seems to me that Lapid is a former journalist who is more leftist than centrist.  And Abbas is a liar, and the ruling arrangement is a formula for incoherence.  What could possibly go wrong?

Chinese planes in Malaysian air. Malaysia’s government is upset after China reportedly sent more than a dozen warplanes into Malaysian airspace. According to Malaysia’s foreign minister, the country scrambled jets to intercept incursions by 16 Il-76 and Y-20 military transport planes off the coast of Sarawak, near areas where Chinese coast guard vessels have periodically harassed Malaysian oil drilling operations in recent years. Beijing says it's much ado about nothing.

My Take – This is a lot to do with isolating Taiwan and intimidating their neighbors.  The question we should be asking is whether or not China would be so bold, as it’s been recently, and will continue more so in the future, if Trump was still President?  I think the answer is China has a goal and Trump stood in the way and they knew he wasn’t a Jimmy Carter, and no one was going to push him around.  But they have Biden and he’s even worse than Carter because he believes in nothing, understands nothing, and is fast becoming completely unhinged mentally, and it seems to me he has no idea who he’s appointing to important positions, nor does he understand the consequences of his policy decisions, which I have serious misgivings as to their origins within “his” administration.

U.S.-Chinese trade talks. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, Xi Jinping's top economic adviser and trade negotiator, held talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Wednesday. This comes days after Liu spoke with U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai. There's little reason to expect a broad warming trend in U.S.-Chinese relations, but there is some room for “and mutual interest in“ a narrow deal on specific trade issues.

My Take – If Yellen is there it’s a mess, and what’s it mean when they say, “There's little reason to expect a broad warming trend in U.S.-Chinese relations”?  I really find that confusing as China’s eating Biden’s lunch worldwide, and it’s clear he has no vision about this, unlike President Trump. It seems to me Biden isn’t doing much about it, and it appears to me his administration is filled with Sinophiles, and it seems to me there’s no clear consistent vision or goal, or for that matter any harmonious understanding about China and what to do about them within the administration.

Cambodia reaches out. Cambodia’s defense minister confirmed the poorly kept secret that the country was seeking China’s help in modernizing a key naval base on the southwestern edge of the South China Sea. According to the minister, China will not be the only country given access to the facility  which is another way of saying that the Chinese navy will be given access to the facility.

 My Take – This is a story to watch as China has been trying to expand it’s long range naval influence since they have no military bases anywhere outside their immediate sphere of power, as they’re attempting to intimidate Asia into an imposed economic hegemony for their benefit.   This is far more important than is presented. 

China set the fusion reaction record.  On May 23rd by sustaining a temperature of 120 million degrees C (216 million degrees F) for 101 seconds; far hotter than the temperature of the sun.  South Korea held the prior record achieving a 100 million degree C fusion reaction for 20 seconds in December.  China's reactor is a "Tokamak" designed to contain fusion's incredible heat within an incredibly powerful magnetic field.

My Take – Will fusion energy ever come into being?  Yes!  Will it happen soon? No!  While all this is important to know, it’s also nothing that will change anything in the near future unless there’s some kind of unexpected massive scientific breakthrough not on the drawing boards currently, but serendipity has advanced science tremendously in the past, well beyond that which was expected, and it will do so in the future, but serendipity doesn’t happen on any schedule.  The likelihood of it happening over something so complex seems unlikely. 

U.K. to start TPP accession talks. The 11-member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership agreed to allow the United Kingdom to begin accession talks. A working group has been set up to discuss tariffs and rules for trade and investment. British membership in the club makes sense for all involved, both economically and to further the trade bloc’s enduring efforts to entice the United States back in.

My Take – This is going to be interesting to watch.  Pay attention!  I think is much bigger than it appears, and there's going to be economic consequences many will not like.   China cannot be trusted to adhere to any agreement.  This piece by Ashlianna Kreiner, Report: Communist Chinese Arrest Bishop, 7 Priests, 10 Seminarians, Close Seminary, is a perfect example of how any agreement with China is merely a temporary ploy for their long term goals.  And those goals aren't beneficial for the rest of the world.  The Pope lost sight of reality, as was predicted in this piece, Pope Francis' deal with China is a disaster

Food inflation. Global food prices in May saw their biggest surge since 2011, according to U.N. data. The Food and Agriculture Organization’s monthly food price index soared 40 percent in May compared to a year prior. As always, take year-on-year figures this spring with a grain of salt, given the extreme disruptions that were widespread this time last year. But considering the amount of inflation we’re seeing across commodity sectors, and given the political explosiveness of food inflation, watch this closely.

My Take – Tie this in with anti-GMO legislation in so many places in the world and we will see more food issues.  The upside?  This could trigger a pro GMO action all over the world.  Starving people aren’t “reasonable”, that is if you define “reasonable” as going along to get along versus following the facts and drawing the correct conclusions.  I would like to know what insurmountable obstacle was ever overcome by being “reasonable”.

 

No Peace for the Middle East

The Arab-Israeli normalization deals are unlikely to bring stability to the fractured region.

 

By Hilal Khashan March 5, 2021

The Middle East’s location has long made it an arena for great power competition. Over the past few centuries, the region has seen conflict between the Ottoman and Iranian empires, and Russian and Western meddling in its affairs. The Anglo-French establishment of the Middle East state system in the 20th century failed to bring stability. Iran and Turkey went on to build the foundations of a modern state on their own, and the newly rising Arab states, divided as they are, have not managed to come to terms with the creation of a Jewish state in Palestine. The Egyptian and Jordanian peace treaties with Israel also failed to spread peace and stability throughout the region.

Today, the recent normalization deals between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco once again promise to open a new chapter in Middle East relations. But its complex problems and diverse political landscape mean peace is still out of reach for this fractious region........To Read More....

My Take - This is a free piece in Geopolitical Futures, a geopolitical analysis site I highly recommend subscribing to.  I've been following Hilal Khashan's work for some time and I find his insights and understanding of the Middle East and the issues that drive these nations is remarkable.  He understands everything is the basics and builds lines of logic based on history and reality.  I think he's an amazing analyst!

Reflections on Poland’s Alliances

Alliances like NATO are built on interests, not values, and they’re never eternal.

 

By Jacek Bartosiak February 10, 2021

Once again, on the Vistula River, we are worried about security guarantees in the wake of a U.S. election. Politics is a dynamic, not a static, condition. The competition never ends.

For Poland to stay ahead in this competition, the United States will have to demonstrate that despite its vast distance from Eurasia, U.S. interests in the supercontinent are so important that Washington is ready to incur the same costs as the Russians or the Chinese. This was certainly the case during the Cold War, when the United States convinced West Germany and other allies that Washington would defend Western Europe even at the cost of a nuclear attack on the U.S. Will the American attitude be the same in the new strategic environment of the 21st century?..............

In an autumn 2017 essay titled “Without America: Australia in the New Asia,” Hugh White described what would happen if Trump suddenly called the Australian prime minister, announced that a war had broken out in the South China Sea and asked for allied solidarity. White believed that the prime minister probably would have no choice but to agree, because such is the software of politics, and it is no different in Australia.........To Read More....

My Take - First, this appeared in Geopolitical Futures, apparently as one of there free articles, so don't miss out reading it.  There's a lot more than I've linked here. 

Secondly, I think this is a really well done piece!  Poland has always been the meat between the slices of bread and has had to put much effort into defending itself.  It's my belief America will walk away from its commitments in Europe, and later on in Asia.  Bretton Woods is over and it’s just a matter of time and circumstance before it happens, which is why I like this statement by the author, “Alliances like NATO are built on interests, not values, and they’re never eternal”, and is my Quote of the Day.  

 

If there ever was a single sentence that qualifies as the best lesson geopolitics, that’s it!

 

However, with Biden in place it's hard to know what America will do as his administration is filled with some really strange people with radical conflicting views.  Worse yet, neither Biden or Harris has a clue about anything, or have ever accomplished anything, in or out of government. 

 

Wisdom is the application of knowledge and understanding, and for most of us that’s acquired through successes and failures.  But whether we succeeded or failure, we tried, and we learned.  Neither of them has had any solid successes, or failures in or out of politics, and winning or losing elections doesn’t qualify, and their personal and professional histories don't create a lot of confidence in them. 

 

There's no solid "experience in life" foundation of logic or practical experience they can fall back on to make the hard decisions between the two of them.  Decisions that must be made predicated on instinctual logic, because there’s never enough data, and too much date is overrated.  And that lack of insight isn’t overcome by a lifetime in government, which quantifies their lives.  Being surrounded by "experts" is pretty much worthless if a leader has no gut instinct based on experience in life. 

 

I like his American/European analysis and the American/Australian analysis on what happens if America does walk away.  I also think it's right on.