Reflections on Poland’s Alliances

Alliances like NATO are built on interests, not values, and they’re never eternal.

 

By Jacek Bartosiak February 10, 2021

Once again, on the Vistula River, we are worried about security guarantees in the wake of a U.S. election. Politics is a dynamic, not a static, condition. The competition never ends.

For Poland to stay ahead in this competition, the United States will have to demonstrate that despite its vast distance from Eurasia, U.S. interests in the supercontinent are so important that Washington is ready to incur the same costs as the Russians or the Chinese. This was certainly the case during the Cold War, when the United States convinced West Germany and other allies that Washington would defend Western Europe even at the cost of a nuclear attack on the U.S. Will the American attitude be the same in the new strategic environment of the 21st century?..............

In an autumn 2017 essay titled “Without America: Australia in the New Asia,” Hugh White described what would happen if Trump suddenly called the Australian prime minister, announced that a war had broken out in the South China Sea and asked for allied solidarity. White believed that the prime minister probably would have no choice but to agree, because such is the software of politics, and it is no different in Australia.........To Read More....

My Take - First, this appeared in Geopolitical Futures, apparently as one of there free articles, so don't miss out reading it.  There's a lot more than I've linked here. 

Secondly, I think this is a really well done piece!  Poland has always been the meat between the slices of bread and has had to put much effort into defending itself.  It's my belief America will walk away from its commitments in Europe, and later on in Asia.  Bretton Woods is over and it’s just a matter of time and circumstance before it happens, which is why I like this statement by the author, “Alliances like NATO are built on interests, not values, and they’re never eternal”, and is my Quote of the Day.  

 

If there ever was a single sentence that qualifies as the best lesson geopolitics, that’s it!

 

However, with Biden in place it's hard to know what America will do as his administration is filled with some really strange people with radical conflicting views.  Worse yet, neither Biden or Harris has a clue about anything, or have ever accomplished anything, in or out of government. 

 

Wisdom is the application of knowledge and understanding, and for most of us that’s acquired through successes and failures.  But whether we succeeded or failure, we tried, and we learned.  Neither of them has had any solid successes, or failures in or out of politics, and winning or losing elections doesn’t qualify, and their personal and professional histories don't create a lot of confidence in them. 

 

There's no solid "experience in life" foundation of logic or practical experience they can fall back on to make the hard decisions between the two of them.  Decisions that must be made predicated on instinctual logic, because there’s never enough data, and too much date is overrated.  And that lack of insight isn’t overcome by a lifetime in government, which quantifies their lives.  Being surrounded by "experts" is pretty much worthless if a leader has no gut instinct based on experience in life. 

 

I like his American/European analysis and the American/Australian analysis on what happens if America does walk away.  I also think it's right on.