The World as I See it: Algeria, Syria and Turkey

By Rich Kozlovich

Geopolitical Futures reports for this last week are insightful. Syrian Militias are no longer being funded by Iran to the same extant they were. As a result their fighters are not being paid, their families aren't being cared for and it appears even the quality of their food isn't good.  That was inevitable as it was clear Middle East economics was based on oil. and that's not going to do it for them any longer.  And since there's not one Islam dominated nation in the world that's a natural capital generator this should have been expected. 

I have to assume this is an across the board situation for all the many terrorist factions that are like a Hydra. When you cut off one head two grow from the stump. But that growth can only occur if there’s money pouring into these groups.

For years I’ve been saying the only way to contain these Islamic terrorists is to keep them broke and keep them over there.

Turkey is going through a small but growing economic crisis due to excess spending that was intended to grow the economy, which made many believe Turkey was a bigger power in the Middle East than I thought it was.  Erdogan's meddling is going to cost them big time now, and I don't think this is going get any better in the forseeable future 

They're playing a dangerous economic game involving Trump and Russia, in an apparent attempt to show they don’t need the U.S. with their wanting to purchase military hardware from Russia. That’s gong to back fire on them as the U.S. doesn’t need the parts they’re producing to build F-35 aircraft. Why they’re letting these loons do it in the first place is a puzzle to me, but ending that will certainly have an impact on them and others. They need to get this. We don’t need them, they need us.

I kept a steady course in believing there’s only one country in the Middle East that’s a true capital generator, and that’s Israel. Turkey is now contracting its economy and it has a load of debt, and the value of their currency is dropping steadily. This isn’t a good time for Erdogan, especially since elections are just around the corner.

Here’s the question. What does he do if his party loses the election?

As the world’s economy contracts, and Trumps trade sanctions around the world will hasten that, Turkey and all these Islamic tyrannies will start to suffer even further, especially since they no longer control the world’s oil supply, or the cost of it.  

As time goes by Algeria may become important news as Algerians are unhappy with their political system, and no one sees a way out. That needs watching for all the newsies out there and I’m convinced France may be dragged into this in some way.

Based on other information by Geopolitical Futures outlining the unending protests in Algerian history they're still not happy even though their current President has dropped out of running for another term. Fundamentally, once again, they're not a true capital generating nation.  They're economy is an oil based economy, and oil isn't going to cut it any longer.  I expect this to grow, and their military, which has stayed out of all this, may become involved. 

It seems to me there are two questions that need to be asked: 

• What do they really want?
• What will replace what they have?

I think that answer is they don't know for both questions.

Up Date:  In Turkey it appears Erdogan's party, the AKP,  is facing some serious defeats in the election. They appear to have lost the mayor's race in Ankara and most likely Istanbul.   Geopolitical Futures points out that Turkey is a complicated nation with strong internal divisions between the secular minded and the religious minded and of course the Kurds, but at this point Erdogan is still in charge, and still holds a majority in Turkey, but it's clear to me they're going to have some serious economic issue within the next five years that may actually split the nation into regionally autonomous areas.

In Algeria the President is going to step down and it appears there's going to be a peaceful transition of power, but it still remains unclear what everyone wants in Algeria, with the exception of a violent overthrow of the government.  All the disasters of the "Arab Spring" cause may have made an in presession on the Algerians, and at least they don't want that.