David Archibald, an Australian scientist and analyst, counterintuitively argues that China is weaker than we think. I don’t agree with everything Archibald says, both factually and theoretically, but I thought his essay is interesting enough to bring to your attention. The premise of Archibald’s claim that China is not as forbidding as Xi Jinping makes it appear is summed up in a single sentence:
“China has a lot of structural problems that make it a fragile state, a frail state and even potentially a future failed state.”
Archibald makes five major points:
demographic games have been disastrous. Mao, who believed in big
battalions, deliberately encouraged massive population growth, which
peaked at about 1.4 billion. The result is that China cannot feed its
population. That continues to be true despite its one-child policy that
has now left China in a demographic tailspin with an aging population that a smaller, youthful population must support...............To Read More....