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De Omnibus Dubitandum - Lux Veritas

Sunday, August 21, 2016

America’s Looming Demographic Winter: Can We Avoid a Fertility Free Fall?

By John Stonestreet

Is America heading for a demographic cold snap? The fertility forecast is gloomy these days.
We’ve talked before on BreakPoint about the fertility crisis facing China, Japan, and much of Europe—all of which face what has been called a “demographic winter.”  Until recently, the United States has been an exception to this distressing trend, but this seems no longer the case.

To understand why, here’s a primer. Demographers use two numbers to measure fertility rates: the average number of children a woman gives birth to during her lifetime—that’s called the “total fertility rate”—and the number of births per 1,000 women, often referred to as the “birth rate.”
If the “total fertility rate” drops below 2.1 children per woman, a country's population will shrink unless there are compensating levels of immigration.....To Read More...

My Take - The demographic pyramid is out of whack all over the world. What's a demographic pyramid? A pyramid has a large base that tapers as it rises. That's not happening demographically worldwide.

The baby boomer generation was massive and created massive capital - which the government has wasted beyond measure. That capital can't be replaced by the millennials....they don't have the numbers, and they won't be able to pay for the 'entitlements' of the baby boomers without massive tax increases, massive cuts in the entitlements or both.

Let's not be fooled - we're heading into a worldwide economic disaster that can't be forestalled, and it's going to start being felt by 2020 and will peak into a planetary disaster sometime between 2020 and 2030.   Europe is breeding itself out of existence, and by 2030 some countries like Greece will no longer be sovereign states. By 2040 Russia's natural ethnic population may be a minority in their own country.  It's not going to be pretty - no matter who's elected. 

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