Census Bureau Income Data: Four Years, No Progress

September 11, 2024 by Dan Mitchell @ International Liberty

I’ve repeatedly cited monthly data from the Labor Department to show that workers have struggled during the Biden-Harris years because inflation has increased faster than wages.

Those monthly numbers specifically show that workers lost a lot of ground in 2021 and 2022. There’s been a bit of progress since then, but the best-case scenario is that workers have merely recovered their losses.

Which means zero overall economic progress over the past four years.

Today, let’s look at some annual numbers from the Census Bureau, which just published its yearly report on income in the United States.

The good news is that median family income rose last year. The bad news is that families are still worse off than they were before the pandemic.

So is this good economic news or bad economic news? Is it good political news? If so, is it good for Harris or Trump? Here are some excerpts from Abha Bhattarai‘s report in the Washington Post.

Household incomes rose last year for the first time since 2019 but are still lower than they were before the pandemic, according to a new U.S. Census Bureau report that helps explain why so many Americans remain dissatisfied with the economy… After inflation, median household income rose to $80,610 last year, up from $77,540 in 2022 but less than the $81,210 families brought home in 2019. …White households saw a 5.4 percent increase in income, while median incomes for their Black, Asian and Hispanic counterparts remained largely flat. …The White House…has struggled to persuade Americans that they’re better off financially than they were four years ago.

My assessment is that neither Harris nor Trump will benefit from these numbers. The somewhat good news in 2023 is offset by the very bad news the previous two years.

So the tiebreaker may be the monthly Labor Department numbers for 2024. I’ll be sure to do a column when new data gets released in early October.

For what it’s worth, here is some of what I wrote about this time last year, when the 2022 Census Bureau income numbers were released.

Median household income dropped by more than $1,000 in Reagan’s first two years, and even dropped by a couple of hundred dollars in 1983, yet that did not preclude big improvements in 1984 and a landslide reelection for the Gipper. So there is still time for Biden to turn things around.

I’ll stick with that analysis, other than replacing Biden with Harris.

Now that I’ve issued my amateur political analysis, I’ll close with hard-headed economic analysis. If we want more jobs, higher wages, and better living standards, free markets and limited government are the right approach.

(Editor's Note: Dan and I diverge on what he's calling Trump's "protectionism", but I'm concerned about the "endless spending" no matter who's elected.  RK)

Unfortunately, a Trump victory may mean economically debilitating protectionism and a Harris victory may mean destructive class-warfare taxes. And endless spending if either of them win!

So whoever prevails, I’m worried that the American people lose.