Strategic Political Thinking By New York Democrats

November 16, 2022 Francis Menton @ Manhattan Contrarian 

As of tonight, a full eight days after the election, it finally looks like several sources (e.g., RealClearPolitics, New York Times) have “called” enough Congressional races to be (almost) sure that the Republicans will control the House starting in January. When all the votes are finally counted (Christmas?), the margin of control is likely to be either 2 or 3 seats, and no more than 4.

America, you owe a deep debt of gratitude to my home state of New York. Even after a Republican seat was eliminated by population loss, the Republicans picked up four seats among the remainder in New York Congressional races — as much or more than their entire incoming majority — thus going from 8 of 27 seats in the last Congress to 11 of 26 in the new Congress. In other words, America owes Republican control of Congress entirely to Republican gains in New York.

But it’s even better than that. The gains are largely the result of a Democratic redistricting overreach that ending by blowing up in their faces. Here’s the short version of the story. For decades, Republicans controlled the New York State Senate by slight majorities. Given heavy Democratic advantages in voter registration, the Democrats thought that a non-partisan redistricting commission drawing fair lines would lead them to gain permanent majorities. In 2014 they got a constitutional amendment on the ballot calling for a non-partisan redistricting commission; and the voters passed it.

But then the Democrats took control anyway under the old districts, before the new commission got its first crack after the 2020 census. The deep thinkers in the Democratic Party then came up with a strategy that they thought could circumvent the commission and get themselves a highly partisan redistricting despite the constitutional amendment. They first caused an impasse in the commission, and then took the redistricting process back into the legislature, now overwhelmingly dominated by Democrats. And then they came up with maps that were thought likely to result in the Republicans only winning only 4 seats out of the 26 in the new delegation.

But the constitutional amendment passed by the voters in 2014 had a provision (Section 4(c)(5)) saying that “districts shall not be drawn . . . for the purpose of favoring or disfavoring . . . particular candidates or political parties.” The maps put forth by the Democrats clearly violated this provision. However, most of the judges in the state are Democrats, and at the top court (the Court of Appeals) all of the judges had been appointed by Democrats. So the Democrats apparently thought they had a lock because their judges would support them. They put through their highly partisan plan, and it then got struck down at every level of the court system. When it got to the Court of Appeals, that court of all Democrats voted 4-3 to strike down the legislature’s gerrymander. Ultimately, the courts appointed a special master, who drew the maps that were used in the November election. And now we have 11 Republican congresspeople from New York, when it could have been 4.

The brains behind the Democrats’ redistricting overreach in the legislature is said to be a guy named Mike Gianaris of Queens, the Deputy Majority Leader of the State Senate. Yes of course, you guessed it — he is Jane’s State Senator.

Meanwhile, back here in Manhattan, and Greenwich Village specifically, we can’t be bothered with parochial issues like a few upstate Congressional races. We’re focused instead on the big picture. Here is a photo of a very large double townhouse near where I live. I took this picture on Tuesday (November 15), a week after the election, and the political signs were still in the windows. “BETO”. How’s that for excitement!

Public sources have reported that this double townhouse is the home of Matthew Broderick and Sarah Jessica Parker. This is true Manhattan sophistication.