By Rich Kozlovich I subscribe to Geopolitical Futures, Jamestown Foundation, Foreign Affairs, and review Institute for the Study of War, International Crisis Group, and others. All of which I find is impossible to keep up with, because the discord around the world is everywhere and is mind boggling, so I'm attempting to explore how best to handle it all. I've decided to use China and Russia as my focal points, and then whatever comes up between them and other nations. At least for now.
When you read a lot of history and review a lot of modern events it doesn't take long to realize you have to develop a foundational philosophy in order to grasp the underlying foundational social paradigms that create all these problems. As a result, I've developed an "it's the basics" three part philosophy. "Demographics, geographics and economics" determines the outcome of everything, and those who handle those three "basics" best, wins. Most, but not all, of what involves America in international relations will be covered in regular editions of P&D.
So, here goes my first Edition of P&D Geopolitics. I will be quoting directly from some of the articles I receive, or review, but without links as for the subscription sites. I hope you find it all worthy of your attention.
China
Currently China's investments in their military must be staggering. They've upgraded their naval forces including doing a lot of research of electromagnetic propulsion systems, and their air force has been revamped for launching drones, also in the form of swarms from sea based platforms. This apparently for use in amphibious landings. Guess where that's intended?
They're upgrading their drone technology to match America's large drones, which will give them mission capability in "reconnaissance, area denial and control, precision strike, cluster strike and damage assessment." All of which will be "all military" integrated, all of which is being tested over and around Taiwan.
The world is noticing and doesn't like it. Japan will be conducting a military exercise for the defense of what the Japanese call the Senkaku Island, which will enhance potential joint military operations in opposition to China's aggressive intentions and actions in those waters, and elsewhere, including Taiwan.
"The four Quad members (Australia, India, Japan and the United States) started the Malabar naval exercises in Japan. This comes amid heightened tensions related to North Korea's flurry of missile tests. Japan's prime minister this week reaffirmed the country's commitment to increasing defense spending, crafting a new security strategy and acquiring long-range weapons."
The newly installed Philippine government is developing a military modernization program. And I've no doubt this is a reflection of China's bully boy economic/military tactics involving fishing in Philippine waters. China is attempting to claim all of the South China Sea belongs to them and will enforce that view with naval might.
Once again, the cost to China for all this is immense, and it's money they don't have. Like Russia, China is not a natural capital generating nation, they need the American market, badly. Their economy is flat, and Trump imposed restrictions, which was largely criticized by many, is responsible, especially in the chip market. Xi is another Mao with a total commitment to Marx/Leninist economic theory. The world should be thankful he's been in effect installed as leader for life as he's going to lead them into economic oblivion.
Russia
Putin is in deep trouble. His army is pulling back just about everywhere from captured territory in Ukraine, with Ukrainian forces making the Russian army look like a third world militia, with a lack of ability to even supply their forces with needed material, and most likely even food. All caused because Ukrainian forces are preventing it, who is playing this out in a very cagey manner, seemingly in the belief time is on their side. Imagine that! As a result, Russia is ceding back to Ukraine territory they conquered and then proclaimed was now a part of Russia.
While Russia still controls 15% of Ukraine, and has devastated their civilian population, national infrastructure, this is no longer going in Russia's direction. Everything Putin claimed he wanted to prevent, is now becoming reality. NATO has expanded, and he can't do a thing about it, Ukraine wants to now join NATO, his army has been exposed as a teddy bear, he's been exposed as a dim light bulb to the world and has lost influence everywhere.
Moldova is wanting to abandon Russia, has supported Ukraine, and has discussed joining NATO. In May the "European Parliament declared Crimea is Ukraine, the Donbas is Ukraine, Kyiv is Ukraine, and they always will be Ukraine."
They've
spent untold amounts of money on drone technology, that not only didn't
work very well, they can't manufacture replacement drones. Replacement
parts are now largely unavailable because of supply chain disruption,
and I'm sure economic embargoes over his invasion of Ukraine in this
undeclared war. So, now they're buying them from China and ....of all
places .... Iran. Hundreds of them. The impact on his budgetary
issues? That has to be huge. Not to mention he's used up massive
amounts of military hardware he can't replace.
All this is followed by public proclamations of why it isn't Putin's fault.
Putin's losing in his undeclared war, he has to find common ground with
the Taliban as he can't afford terrorist issues with them, he's making
economic deals with Pakistan and China and has to try and find a way of
bringing China, India and Pakistan into some kind of favorable economic
arrangement for Russia, which I find chuckle worthy, since Pakistan and
China are not natural capital generating nations, and India has a lot of
trouble with Pakistan and China. And he's blaming everyone around him
for his failures, with an alleged agreement having been offered to Putin that will require Putin to publicly declare all he's done has been a failure. For a dictator in Russia, that's not a good sign.
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