Thursday, March 26, 2020

Coronavirus in Perspective, Part III

By Rich Kozlovich

I promised to get this out earlier in the week, but this has been a difficult article. I’ve had to check and re-check my information over and over again. Sorting it out and confirming the accuracy has been a real challenge.  I’ve found trying to present it in a readable. and reasonably short presentation to be mind boggling. That was the biggest difficulty, plus, there’s so much out here I found deciding what to include and how to correlate it difficult. 

I found an error in my first article (since corrected) where I said there were only four cases of Ebola in America, but there were eleven. The information I initially used was a bit misleading in the way the information was presented. However, only two did die, that remains true. But considering they predicted up to over a million cases and were really wrong, I think I can be forgiven.

What’s worse is I’m finding this pattern plays out in all the information about all the afflictions I’m highlighting. The numbers are all mixed. The more sources you read the more mixed they become, including all the information about this variety of coronavirus.

So, there may be some errors, and I’m sure there are, but they’ll be small, and won’t change the conclusions or the message, which is to demonstrate pandemics come and pandemics go. They’re never as bad as the experts predict, and no matter how severe they were, no one wanted to shut down the country until now.

We keep hearing how amazingly dangerous, and how infectious this version of coronavirus is, which there are 40 of them, with estimates and predictions that are frightening the public to the point of hysteria. Hysteria that’s created a new affliction called moronavirus!

How true is all of this doom and gloom we keep hearing and reading about? How does this compare with these other infectious diseases that afflict mankind yearly? Diseases that impact humanity worldwide, including America!

I’ll tell you what, let’s talk about them. Starting with:

Norovirus: Number nine on the chart.

Norovirus is considered a very contagious virus that causes nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, stomach pain, stomach cramps, fever, muscle pain and all round not feeling well.

Commonly called “flu-like” symptoms. It impacts people of all ages, and on average there are 20 million cases reported in the United States alone……every year! Furthermore, norovirus kills between 500 and 800 people……. every year! As for herd immunity, well, overall, we can’t really get herd immunity because there are so many types of norovirus.

Apparently, outbreaks are quite common, it’s quickly and easily spread through food, water, contact and contaminated surfaces. Norovirus runs its course from November to April. Whether you get it or not depends on your particular genetics.

Worldwide norovirus is in the top ten deadly infectious diseases, coming in at number 9, killing 548 people “each and every day” around the world.

Solutions regarding how to avoid it? The usual stuff we have been told to do for seasonal flu season. Practice proper hand hygiene, make sure of the water you’re drinking or cooking with, wash fruits and vegetables and cook everything, including seafood thoroughly, when you are sick do not prepare food or care for others, clean and disinfect contaminated surfaces, wash laundry thoroughly. But most importantly, if you’re sick, stay home. But no one suggested shutting down the country.

With some variations, this will be repeated as the “usual stuff” in this article.

Rotovirus: Number seven on the chart.

There are approximately three million cases in the United States every year with 95% of these cased infecting children five years old and younger, with the highest rate of incidence among children, infants really, between three to thirty five months old. It’s considered very contagious causing diarrhea vomiting, stool containing blood or pus, very high temperatures, lethargy, pain, dehydration, sleepiness or unresponsiveness, with 400,000 physician visits yearly.  With what most would consider “flu like” symptoms. But it’s deadly!

Rotovirus causes over 215,000 deaths a year worldwide, and because there are so many types of rotovirus, reinfections are not uncommon, and they can infect adults. It’s easily spread and remains infectious for weeks on surfaces that haven’t been disinfected. Two vaccines available but because there are many types of rotavirus, it's possible to be infected, and more than once, even if you've been vaccinated, although repeat infections are typically less severe. It’s number seven on the most deadly infectious diseases list. How to avoid this virus? The usual stuff, but no one suggested shutting down the nation!

Shigellosis: Number six on the chart.

Shigellosis isn’t a viral infection, it’s a bacterial infection, but it’s on the top ten deadly infectious diseases list at number six killing 1644 people worldwide every day, with infants and children being impacted the most.

It causes stomach pain, vomiting diarrhea, fever, blood in the urine, with 165 million cases occurring worldwide yearly, and 450,000 cases in the United States yearly. Often considered “flu like” symptoms.

As I said it impacts children mostly, especially those between six months old and five years old, but it has a ten percent mortality rate, and no known seasonality. Contaminated drinking water is the main source of infection, but in America we have treated water and yet still have 450,000 cases yearly, and has developed antibiotic resistance.

How to avoid it? The usual stuff, and make sure to drink bottled water when traveling and dispose of diapers properly. But no one suggested shutting down the country.

Ebola Virus: Number 24 on the chart.

We had eleven cases in 2014. Two who contracted it from outside the U.S. who died, and two contracted it from within survived. It’s listed as number 24 on the chart killing 5.3 people every day. How to avoid it? If you travel to countries where they have it, you can’t! The mortality rate can be over eighty percent.  But no one thought shutting down the country was a solution. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) predicted a trajectory between 550,000 to 1.4 million cases by early the following year. What did they base this on? Computer modeling, but computer modeling is kind of like Game Boy science. You get out of it what you put into it."

SARS: Number twenty five on the chart.

SARS is a coronavirus, all of which are all zoonotic, starting in animals and migrating to people. It started in China and in 2003 infected a total of 8,096 people in 29 countries, with eight in the U.S. With an almost ten percent mortality rate, seven hundred and seventy four died but none of them in the U.S. The estimated word wide cost? Forty billion.

How to prevent it? The usual stuff, but no one suggested closing down the nation to prevent it.

MERS: Number twenty six on the cart

It’s called the Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome for a good reason. In 2012 Saudi Arabia first reported it. It’s considered deadly with a thirty five percent mortality rate. The World Health Organization has counted nearly 2,500 cases of MERS in the Middle East and beyond, and more than 850 deaths. Very few in the U.S.

How to avoid, it? First, stay out of the Middle East, otherwise, the usual stuff, and no one suggested shutting down the country.

Swine Flu (H1N1): Not even on the chart.

Swine Flu (H1N1) may have killed as many as 6000 people in the U.S. and infected somewhere between 14 and 34 million people. Big spread there. Computer modeling? And estimated 63,000 to 153,000 were hospitalized. More computer modeling?

How to avoid it? The usual stuff, but no one suggested shutting down the country. And in point of fact, Dr Fauci, who's so hot to shut down America, “in September 2009, after millions had become infected with the H1N1 influenza and thousands had died, some of whom were young people and children, a relaxed and unalarmed Dr. Anthony Fauci told and interviewer, that people just need "to use good judgment."  As one of my readers pointed out, he's typical of so many of these academic doctors.  Big on quoting other's work but weak on practical advice, as in synthesizing a response for a patient.

So, there was no need to shut down businesses all over the country for what at this point was a much more deadly infectious disease than the China virus, AKA Kung Flu, the current coronavirus?

Did I get that right?

Annual Flu Season: Number eight on the chart.

“While everyone is in a panic about the coronavirus (officially renamed 1COVID-19  by the World Health Organization), there's an even deadlier virus many people are forgetting about: the flu.

 Flu season is hitting its stride right now in the US. So far, the CDC has estimated (based on weekly influenza surveillance data) that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020, and the number of deaths may be as high as 30,000.

The CDC also estimates that up to 31 million Americans have caught the flu this season, with 210,000 to 370,000 flu sufferers hospitalized because of the virus.”

So, how do we avoid it? The usual stuff, but no one ever suggests we shut down the country, and remember, this is year in and year out, why aren’t they shutting down the country every year?

So, where does the world stand right now? This page has counters for each category, go here to see the changes, currently, at 10:52 AM EST, 3/26/20. there are 491,623 cases, 22,169 deaths, and 118,245 recoveries.

Pandemics come and pandemics go, and in the last 75 years none of them were Spanish Influenza, the Black Death, and this isn't small pox, all devastating pandemics, all lasting for years and returning regularly.  The only cure was individual and herd resistance. 

Will there be another truly serious pandemic in the future.  Yes.  Will we be able to predict it? No!  Will we be able to stop it.  Most likely not!  Will a lot of people die?  Yes. 

But until then, this isn't going to be one of them, and when this is all over we're going to look around and ask:  Was that it?  Was that all there was?  Did we destroy our economy for this? 

The answer will be yes!

The next installment will deal with those responsible and what the consequences will be for the world, especially China.  Nothing is ever as it appears with China.  There's always a degree of speculation when dealing with anything coming out of China.  As for any official announcement from their government; I just assume they're lying.  All that's left to determine is to what degree.  It's part and parcel of their social paradigm going back through the centuries being ruled by the emperors and Mandarins.

We really need to get that!

Please enjoy my conronavirus series:

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