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De Omnibus Dubitandum - Lux Veritas

Showing posts with label Liz Truss. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Liz Truss. Show all posts

Thursday, October 27, 2022

European Fiscal Policy Week, Part IV: Bad U.K. Monetary Policy Leads to Bad U.K. Fiscal Policy

October 27, 2022 by Dan Mitchell @ International Liberty

I was excited about the possibility of pro-growth tax policy during the short-lived reign of Liz Truss as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

However, I’m now pessimistic about the nation’s outlook. Truss was forced to resign and big-government Tories (akin to big-government Republicans) are back in charge.

As part of my “European Fiscal Policy Week,” let’s take a closer look at what happened and analyze the pernicious role of the Bank of England (the BoE is their central bank, akin to the Federal Reserve in the U.S.).

 

Let’s start with a reminder that the Bank of England panicked during the pandemic and (like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank) engaged in dramatic monetary easing.

That was understandable in the spring of 2020, perhaps, but it should have been obvious by the late summer that the world was not coming to an end.

Yet the BoE continued with its easy-money policy. The balance sheet kept expanding all of 2020, even after vaccines became available.

And, as shown by the graph, the easy-money approach continued into early 2021 (and the most-recent figures show the BoE continued its inflationary policy into mid-2021).

Needless to say, all of that bad monetary policy led to bad results. Not only 10 percent annual inflation, but also a financial system made fragile by artificially low interest rates and excess liquidity.

So how does any of this relate to fiscal policy?

As the Wall Street Journal explained in an editorial on October 10, the BoE’s bad monetary policy produced instability in financial markets and senior bureaucrats at the Bank cleverly shifted the blame to then-Prime Minster Truss’ tax plan.


Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is trying to stabilize pension funds, which are caught on the shoals of questionable hedging strategies as the high water of loose monetary policy recedes. …The BOE is supposed to be tightening policy to fight inflation at 40-year highs and claims these emergency bond purchases aren’t at odds with its plans to let £80 billion of assets run off its balance sheet over the next year. But BOE officials now seem confused about what they’re doing. …No wonder markets doubt the BOE’s resolve on future interest-rate increases. Undeterred, the bank is resorting to the familiar bureaucratic imperative for self-preservation. Mr. Cunliffe’s letter is at pains to blame Mr. Kwarteng’s fiscal plan for market ructions. His colleagues Jonathan Haskel and Dave Ramsden —all three are on the BOE’s policy-setting committee—have picked up the theme in speeches that blame market turbulence on a “U.K.-specific component.” This is code for Ms. Truss’s agenda. …Mr. Bailey doesn’t help his credibility or the bank’s independence by politicizing the institution.

In a column for Bloomberg, Narayana Kocherlakota also points a finger at the BoE.

And what’s remarkable is that Kocherlakota is the former head of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve and central bankers normally don’t criticize each other.


Markets didn’t oust Truss, the Bank of England did — through poor financial regulation and highly subjective crisis management. …The common wisdom is that financial markets “punished” Truss’s government for its fiscal profligacy. But the chastisement was far from universal. Over the three days starting Sept. 23, when the Truss government announced its mini-budget, the pound fell by 2.2% relative to the euro, and the FTSE 100 stock index declined by 2.2% — notable movements, but hardly enough to bring a government to its knees. The big change came in the price of 30-year UK government bonds, also known as gilts, which experienced a shocking 23% drop. Most of this decline had nothing to do with rational investors revising their beliefs about the UK’s long-run prospects. Rather, it stemmed from financial regulators’ failure to limit leverage in UK pension funds. …The Bank of England, as the entity responsible for overseeing the financial system, bears at least part of the blame for this catastrophe. …the Truss government…was thwarted not by markets, but by a hole in financial regulation — a hole that the Bank of England proved strangely unwilling to plug.

Last but not least, an October 18 editorial by the Wall Street Journal provides additional information.


When the history of Britain’s recent Trussonomics fiasco is written, make sure Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gets the chapter he deserves. …The BOE has been late and slow fighting inflation… Mr. Bailey’s actions in the past month have also politicized the central bank…in a loquacious statement that coyly suggested the fiscal plan would be inflationary—something Mr. Kwarteng would have disputed. …Meanwhile, members of the BOE’s policy-setting committee fanned out to imply markets might be right to worry about the tax cuts. If this was part of a strategy to influence fiscal policy, it worked. …Mr. Bailey may have been taking revenge against Ms. Truss, who had criticized the BOE for its slow response to inflation as she ran to be the Conservative Party leader this summer. Her proposed response was to consider revisiting the central bank’s legal mandate. The BOE’s behavior the past month has proven her right beyond what she imagined.

So what are the implications of the BoE’s responsibility-dodging actions?

  • First, we should learn a lesson about the importance of good monetary policy. None of this mess would have happened if the BoE had not created financial instability with an inflationary approach.
  • Second, we should realize that there are downsides to central bank independence. Historically, being insulated from politics has been viewed as the prudent approach since politicians can’t try to artificially goose an economy during election years. But Bailey’s unethical behavior shows that there is also a big downside.

Sadly, all of this analysis does not change the fact that tax cuts are now off the table in the United Kingdom. Indeed, the new Prime Minister and his Chancellor of the Exchequer have signaled that they will continue Boris Johnson’s pro-tax agenda.

That’s very bad news for the United Kingdom.

P.S. There used to be at least one sensible central banker in the United Kingdom.

P.P.S. But since sensible central bankers are a rare breed, maybe the best approach is to get government out of the business of money.


 

Monday, October 24, 2022

‘The Free Market Experiment Is Over’ – Time for a ‘Reset’ with Sunak as PM, Says Top Tory

The “free market experiment is over”, according to a top Tory MP and Rishi Sunak backer Tobias Ellwood, who hopes the establishment favourite will now usher in a “reset”.

Senior Tory Tobias Ellwood, chairman of the Defence Select Committee of the House of Commons, has thrown his weight behind the leadership campaign of the anti-tax cuts former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, arguing that a return to “centrist” government is required and a “reset” necessary — drawing comparisons to the World Economic Forum’s infamous Great Reset strategy.  To Read More....

My Take - And he's the "Top Tory".  Here's  how Brendan O'Neill plays this tune:  

Britain a political wasteland — Brendan O’Neill, Spiked - Liz Truss is out. After just 44 days her premiership is no more. ‘I’m a fighter, not a quitter’, she said in parliament yesterday, and now she’s quit. Her premiership deserves to live in ignominy. Not necessarily because her blunders were so spectacular – though many of them were – but because of what this strangled-at-birth stint in Downing Street tells us about British politics more broadly. Which is that it’s a wasteland. An ideological void. A dustbowl of ideas. The lack of even the faintest glimmer of leadership material anywhere in the Westminster circus is horrifying to me. Trussism is but a symptom of a wider malady afflicting our political class.

First, her mistakes. Where to start? Probably with the observation, harsh as it may be, that the very fact she became prime minister is an indictment of Westminster............

Then we have:  

British Conservatives Need to Get a Grip - By Nicholas L. Waddy - The lesson here—for Americans and Britons alike—is simple: At some stage, the Conservatives are going to have to "man up" and stop eating their own.   And yet this is not so much a crisis of the British political system as it is one of the leadership of the governing Conservative Party. Conservatives cannot agree on who should be running the country, and that ambivalence threatens both their grip on power and the country’s ability to weather a major fiscal and economic storm...............Here in the United States, it sure looks like we’re about to provide our British cousins with a vivid demonstration of how precarious the position of incumbents is, as the economic skies start to darken. British Conservatives had better learn their lesson fast, or there may be no Conservative Party left to contest the next election. It’s already looking more like a dysfunctional rabble than a governing class.........

And this next won is a real heart breaker, a bit of snark here.  Does the man really believe he's the solution and not part of the problem? Bojo is a clown, and what in the world is Rees-Mogg, who I've described as smart, articulate and conservative, running a campaign for him?  I find the Brits irrational, and no matter what the previous author said, I think it's the parliamentarian system of government.  It' screwy, and to be a part of it requires a screw head.

Boris Johnson Pulls Out of Leadership Race: Has Concluded Tory Party is Beyond Help For Now - By Oliver JJ LaneFormer UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said he will not be standing to lead the country again, implicitly stating the governing Conservative Party is ungovernable as things presently stand.  While Boris Johnson never officially declared he was standing to become the next leader of the Conservative Party, and hence in accordance with the British constitution and makeup of Parliament — which the Conservatives control by a considerable majority — the next Prime Minister, it was clear he was. The former Prime Minister had flown back to the UK in the middle of a foreign holiday in the aftermath of Liz Truss resigning, and top ally Jacob Rees-Mogg was running a campaign for him, with dozens of colleagues publicly giving him their backing.........

Tuesday, October 18, 2022

The Big Question for Tories (and Republicans): What’s the Alternative to “Free-Market Fundamentalism”?

October 15, 2022 by Dan Mitchell @ International Liberty

Because of her support for lower tax rates, I was excited when Liz Truss became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

 

Especially since her predecessor, Boris Johnson, turned out to be an empty-suit populist who supported higher taxes and a bigger burden of government spending.

But I’m not excited anymore.

Indeed, it’s more accurate to say that I’m despondent since the Prime Minister is abandoning (or is being pressured to abandon) key parts of her pro-growth agenda.

For details, check out this Bloomberg report, written by Julian Harris, about the (rapidly disappearing) tax-cutting agenda of the new British Prime Minister.


Westminster’s most hard-line advocates of free markets and lower taxes are looking on in despair as their agenda crumbles… When Liz Truss became prime minister just over five weeks ago, she promised to deliver a radical set of policies rooted in laissez-faire economics — an attempt to boost the UK‘s sluggish rate of growth.

Yet her chancellor of the exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, faced a quick reality check when his mini-budget, packed with unfunded tax cuts and unaccompanied by independent forecasts, …triggered mayhem…

Truss fired Kwarteng and replaced him with Jeremy Hunt as she was forced into a dramatic u-turn over her tax plans. …Truss conceded…and dropped her plan to freeze corporation tax. …Still, some believers are sticking by “Trussonomics”…Patrick Minford,..a professor at Cardiff University, said..

“Liz Truss’s policies for growth are absolutely right, and to be thrown off them by a bit of market turbulence is insane.” …Eamonn Butler, co-founder of the Adam Smith Institute, similarly insisted that Truss “is not the source of the problem — she’s trying to cure the problem.”

Eamonn is right.

The United Kingdom faces serious economic challenges. But the problems are the result of bad government policies that already exist rather than the possibility of some future tax cuts.

In a column for the Telegraph, Allister Heath says the U.K.’s central bank deserves a big chunk of the blame.

Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng have been doubly unlucky. While almost everybody else in Britain remained in denial, they correctly identified this absurd game for the con-trick that it truly was, warned that it was about to implode and pledged to replace it with a more honest system.

Instead of a zombie economy based on rising asset prices and fake, debt-fuelled growth, their mission was to encourage Britain to produce more real goods and services, to work harder and invest more by reforming taxes and regulation. What happened next is dispiriting in the extreme. …

Truss and her Chancellor moved too quickly and, paradoxically, given their warnings about the rottenness of the system, ended up pulling out the last block from the Jenga tower, sending all of the pieces tumbling down. …they didn’t crash the economy – it was about to come tumbling down anyway – but they had the misfortune of precipitating and accelerating the day of reckoning. …

Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England…, has been deeply unimpressive in all of this, helping to keep interest rates too low… The idea, now accepted so widely, that the price of money must be kept extremely low and quantitative easing deployed at every opportunity has undermined every aspect of the economy and society. …Too few people realise how terribly the easy money, high tax, high regulation orthodoxy has failed.

Allister closes with some speculation about possible alternatives. If the Tories in the U.K. decide to reject so-called “free-market fundamentalism,” what’s their alternative?

He thinks the Labour Party will take control, and with very bad results. Jeremy Corbyn will not be in charge, but his economic policies will get enacted.

If Truss is destroyed, the alternative won’t even be social democracy: it will be Labour, the hard Left, the full gamut of punitive taxation, including of wealth and housing, and even more spending, culminating rapidly in economic oblivion.

That is an awful scenario. Basically turning the United Kingdom into Greece.

I want to take a different approach, though, and contemplate what will happen if the Conservative Party rejects the Truss approach and embraces big-government conservatism.

Here are some questions I’d like them to answer:

  • Do you want improved competitiveness and more economic growth?
  • If you want more growth, which of your spending increases will lead to those outcomes?
  • Which of your tax increases will lead to more competitiveness or more prosperity?
  • Will you reform benefit programs to avert built-in spending increases caused by an aging population?
  • If you won’t reform entitlements, which taxes will you increase to keep debt under control?
  • If you don’t plan major tax increases, do you think the economy can absorb endless debt?

I’m asking these questions for two reasons. First, there are no good answers and I’d like to shame big-government Tories into doing the right thing.

Second, these questions are also very relevant in the United States. Even since the Reagan years, opponents of libertarian economic policies have flitted from one trendy idea to another (national conservatism, compassionate conservatism, kinder-and-gentler conservatismcommon-good capitalism, reform conservatism, etc).

 

To be fair, they usually don’t try to claim their dirigiste policies will produce higher living standards. Instead, they blindly assert that it will be easier to win elections if Republicans abandon Reaganism.

So I’ll close by observing that Ronald Reagan won two landslide elections and his legacy was strong enough that voters then elected another Republican (the same can’t be said for big-government GOPers like Nixon, Bush, Bush, or Trump).

Switching back to the United Kingdom, Margaret Thatcher repeatedly won election and her legacy was strong enough that voters then elected another Conservative.

The bottom line is that good policy can lead to good political outcomes, whereas bad policy generally leads to bad political outcomes.

P.S. To be sure, there were times when Reagan’s poll numbers were very bad. And the same is true for Thatcher. But because they pursued good policies, economic growth returned and they reaped political benefits. Sadly, it appears that Truss won’t have a chance to adopt good policy, so we will never know if she also would have benefited from a similar economic renaissance.

Monday, October 17, 2022

The New Global Virus Is Runaway Government Spending and Debt

By Stephen Moore | October 11, 2022 @ CNS News

When new British Prime Minister Liz Truss suggested lowering the United Kingdom's highest tax rate from 45% to 40%, along with a 1% reduction in the income tax rate for all taxpayers, the bond markets and the central bankers around the world went stark raving mad.

The academic pinheads at the International Monetary Fund trashed the tax cut as irresponsible. The bond vigilantes started selling Britain's bonds. And the Bank of England, which had also savaged the tax cut idea, stepped in to buy bonds to stop the bleeding.

The tragedy here is that Truss had the right idea. In an economic calamity as Britain has suffered for the past three years, cutting tax rates to increase investment and production in England is a way to reduce inflation and stave off a recession. It was the same "supply-side" strategy that President Ronald Reagan and Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher used in the early 1980s to end the stagflation and economic malaise from the 1970s. The "supply-side economics" worked and helped launch a multi-decade economic revival in both countries.

The Left protested that "tax cuts for the rich" would cause even worse debt problems. But this was a fable. The explosion of government debt in the United States, Britain and almost every other developed country across the planet was not caused by tax cuts. There were two reasons debt exploded.

First, central governments catastrophically shut down their economies and businesses during COVID -- even though the health benefits were de minimis. With businesses shut down and workers off the job, tax payments fell off a cliff, thus raising debt levels to unheard-of levels.

Next, the governments of the world compensated for the shutdown of their private sectors by massively increasing government spending on giveaway programs. In the U.S., government spending since COVID has risen by $6 trillion to $7 trillion -- above the normal already obese $5 trillion-a-year budget. Across the planet, government "stimulus" spending in 2020 and 2021 is estimated at -- are you sitting down? -- $21 trillion. Trillions more have been borrowed and spent and paid for with money printing this year.

Government spending in many countries, including the U.S., exceeded 50% of the entire national gross domestic product. In other words, we fought a war against COVID, and socialism won.

Now compare the magnitude of this $21 trillion spending spree with the Truss proposal to cut taxes, which politicos are now saying caused the bond market to go haywire. The total Truss plan had a price tag of about $40 billion. Only about $2 billion of that was the expected revenue loss from the reduction in the top tax rate. In other words, the tax cut was 0.01% of the amount that was spent and borrowed by all of the countries in the world.

It is inconceivable that a tax cut this tiny could cause a financial panic -- or else the world has gone stark raving mad. The real reason that the U.K. is in this economic rut is that former Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Bank of England kept spending money and printing money at such a reckless pace.

The U.S. is in the same dangerous place that the Brits are in as the world economy teeters on the verge of a sharp and painful economic collapse. President Joe Biden has spent and borrowed $4.1 trillion since he came into office roughly 20 months ago. No president in modern times and maybe ever has been as fiscally reckless as Biden. (Alas, Republicans voted for much of this spending, too, and don't forget that in the last days of the Trump administration, Congress added another trillion dollars of spending.) Our government in the U.S. at all levels is still spending almost 40% of our GDP. This is close to the level of socialist European nations like France.

Incidentally, in the U.S., there is no revenue problem whatsoever. Taxes as a share of our economy are, according to the Congressional Budget Office, at a near-record high. In the current course, tax receipts are expected to continue to rise.

The virus that threatens the world today in almost every nation is runaway government spending and debt. It is the match that has lit the forest fire of runaway inflation. It doesn't matter how much Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell raises interest rates (which he must do to tame inflation). The stagflation of high inflation and slow growth won't end until politicians start taking a chainsaw to their out-of-control budgets.

Government spending has not stimulated (SET ITAL) anything (END ITAL) except more government and less private enterprise. The public sector has to go on a SlimFast diet -- and for a long, long time to drain the excess spending out of the global economy.

What is all sadly ironic is that many of the nations of the world are now practicing Modern Monetary Theory. This is the radical idea that governments like the U.S. can spend and borrow increasing amounts of money at almost no cost because of low interest rates. Whoops. Interest rates in the U.S. have risen on the 10-year bond from less than 1% to more than 3% in just the last 24 months. The 30-year mortgage rate has risen from 2.85% at the end of 2020 to nearly 7% today. Let's just say Modern Monetary Theory can be thrown in the trash bin.

Political leaders across the globe seem to be suffering from a severe case of economic amnesia. Reagan said it best, and it is more appropriate today than ever before: "Government is not the solution to our problem. Government is the problem." Truer today than ever.

Stephen Moore is a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation and an economist with FreedomWorks. His latest book is "Govzilla: How the Relentless Growth of Government is Devouring our Economy."

 

Thursday, October 13, 2022

UK PM Liz Truss to Formally Designate Communist China a ‘Threat’ for First Time: Report

Kurt Zindulka12 Oct 2022 

In what could spell a significant reversal of foreign policy for the last three Tory leaders, Prime Minister Liz Truss is reportedly planning on officially designating China a “threat” to the UK for the first time.

Liz Truss, who succeeded Boris Johnson as prime minister last month, is looking to dismantle more of the previous regime’s policy positions, with reports emerging that the new government will look to overturn the previous decade of attempts to cosy up to the communist regime in Beijing.

According to a report from the Daily Telegraph, which shares a close relationship with the governing Conservative party in Britain, Truss is currently conducting an update to Boris Johnson’s 2021 Integrated Review on China, changing the government’s stance from viewing the murderous dictatorship as a “systemic competitor” to a being considered the “most serious long-term threat to our values and way of life”.

The review is expected to be released to the public within the coming days. It follows a speech this week from the head of the Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) intelligence agency, Sir Jeremy Fleming, who warned that China’s growing technological prowess is a “threat to us all“..........To Read More....

 My Take - One thing is clear, she's not BOJO, and she's a bit of an enigma.  When she first got in I said from what I'd read I felt she's a tough nut with a "talk softly but carry a big stick" mentality.  Then  she decided to back off on her promise to "crack down" on immigration and actually decided to increase it, for which I ripped her.  She then gave in on taxes, and now she's back with the big stick.  Will she become a Maggie Thatcher?  We'll see, but I'm not optimistic since this is great headlines, but headlines aren't policy or action.  It's just talk.  

 

Wednesday, October 5, 2022

U.K.'s turmoil a warning to Republicans about what not to do

A Margaret Thatcher she is not.  Liz Truss, the U.K.'s new prime minister, billed herself to the public as that, but the mess she's made of the British economy, which includes a cave-in on a proposed tax cut, is pretty much the opposite of What Thatcher Would Do.  According to Fox News:

............"We get it and we have listened," she wrote. "The abolition of the 45pc rate had become a distraction from our mission to get Britain moving. Our focus now is on building a high growth economy that funds world-class public services, boosts wages, and creates opportunities across the country."

Get what? What on earth is she talking about? Can you imagine Lady Thatcher telling the rabid leftists as she caved to their demands something like: "We get it"?  Eeew........To Read More......

My Take - Please view my

Friday, September 30, 2022

The Brits!

By Rich Kozlovich, Tags:

In the movie The Patriot, something comes up about French support against Cornwallis's army, and Mel Gibbon snorts, "the French" with a tone of disdain, well please use that tone for the title of this article.  

Bojo was a clown, and good riddance, and the new PM is Liz Truss, and while in her younger years she was clearly on the left, and in England, where that's really left, it appears as her years progressed she seemingly became very conservative, and from the background articles I read about her I was left with the impression she was a tough cookie, and seemed to practice the Teddy Roosevelt concept of "Talk softly but carry a big stick!"" 

Well, it appears she just might end up being as big a clown as Bojo, lacking insight and clarity of vision.  It turns out instead of cracking down on immigration as promised, she's going to loosen immigration rules to boost UK economy.  Did she somehow, in all her years in government, fail to realize immigration is killing Europe?  

It's killing England, and filling all of Europe with crime.  Unbelievable crime, including rape and grooming gangs taking advantage of young British women and girls, really young girls, even some as young as five years old, and guess whose fault it is?  It's the fault of these young girls!  Really!  That's the excuse these law enforcers, who are supposed to be protecting the sheep from the wolves, use to ignore or excuse these vile crimes.

Maggie Oliver, a former detective who blew the whistle on the authorities’ refusal to tackle mostly-Muslim rapist “grooming gangs” in Manchester, England, has called for senior police officers and social workers to be prosecuted amid further abuse revelations.......

She said that “successive governments of both political stripes have refused to grapple with the problem as they have been too afraid of being accused of racism“, but that another factor has also been important in the systemic failure to stop the abuse: classism“There remains an attitude that these victims deserve what has happened to them. They are judged to be making a lifestyle choice, rather than as vulnerable children who are being exploited”.

Let's emphasize!  Who are the exploiters and who are the exploited?  Muslims are exploiting mostly young white British girls, and have been getting away with it because of the cravenness and cowardice of these "officials". 

In Rotherham child sex abuse files go missing from council archive, it's noted:

It’s an all-out attack on the West, and those whom we have entrusted with our safety, our lives, our way of life have all but surrendered. How are these Muslim sex gangs in the UK any different from the raping and trafficking of non-Muslim girls in Iraq and Syria by the Islamic State? The only difference is geography….a desire to keep “good relations” with the local Pakistani community and a worry about “reputational risk” for the council also caused officers to turn a blind eye.  And now the files have “disappeared.”  1,400 British non-Muslim children were gang-raped and brutalized by Muslims. 
And that's just a small list.  The list of these vile acts by these abuses is large, and sickening with the abuses these poor young girls are suffering, and will continue to suffer for all their lives.   These men are vile beasts with no mercy or sense of decency.   Please follow this link to see moreAs Daniel Greenfield notes in his article, A Tale of Two Englands:

It’s a girl who was abandoned to the worst imaginable abuses because intervening would have been politically incorrect. ..........The report chronicles how Operation Augusta was launched and then scuttled after her death in 2003, despite identifying 97 suspects and 57 victims. The victims were, “mostly white girls aged between 12 and 16”, and the perpetrators were, “mostly men of ‘Asian heritage’”. By ‘Asian’, the report means “predominantly Pakistani men” though at least one of the perpetrators was apparently Tunisian. 
 
And what's the commonality?  They were all Muslims! This isn't exclusive to Britain, it's going on all over Europe, with having the worst of it, and those in positions of responsibility and authority all over Europe, including England, have allowed these Muslim wolves to decimate their flocks.  At some point there's going to be a reckoning and I hope these people who are allowing this to go on are someday prosecuted for their vile behavior, clearly in violation of any oath of office or any implied oath of integrity, honesty and morality.  Make no mistake about this, at some point this is going to boil over into violence.  
 
Governments are going to fall, civil unrest will become out of control and there will be pitched battles between Muslims and ethnic Europeans.  What will be the final straw?  Economic collapse of the EU and a number of European countries, and it's coming sometime before 2030, my guess is around 2025.  
 
Is it any wonder they were frothing at the mouth over Trump's trade policy a few years ago?  But that's now the least of their worries with this Russo/Ukrainian War's devastating impact on their energy resources.   It would seem their snotty nosed arrogance about going green hasn't worked all that well.  Imagine that.   However, it's they who will suffer, and in the long run it will not be the U.S., assuming Biden and his band of weirdos, misfits and incompetents are kicked to the curb. 

Let's try to get this at least once, please, it's the Muslims who are the greatest offenders, and Truss wants to bring in more Muslims.  Muslims take, they don't give, and just how many immigrant Muslims in England are already on the public doll refusing to work and out breeding ethnic Brits?  How many more will be added with more immigration?
 
Since Maggie Thatcher died are there any conservatives left in Britain other than Nigel Farage?  Yes, actually there is.  How about Jacob Rees-Mogg? Not only is he a conservative of conviction, he's extremely well spoken, and .....watch out now here it comes.....he really is smart, which in itself would be a dramatic change for a British Prime Minister as of late.