The World as I See It: Happiness and The Red Wave

By Rich Kozlovich

Well, is everyone happy?  The phrase, "It's the economy stupid", was made famous by James Carville during a Clinton campaign.  But what happens when people are unhappy even when the economy is good?  Things change, and unhappiness was one of the reasons why Trump was elected. "America was unhappy" and America is getting less happy by the minute.

So, why are Americans unhappy.  How about, just two issues.  The economy is heading into the toilet crime is skyrocketing and their lives are endangered by the policies promoted the very people who are supposed to be protecting America!

No matter what is being said it's my view this "Red Wave" is going to happen and even bigger than we have all thought.  I've said I didn't think the Senate would go the Republicans by more than a 2 seat majority.  I'm now convinced they have a chance at as much as a six seat majority.  The happiness equation is the blind spot of politics, because currently, there's no accounting for it in polls. That's going to change. 

One of the members of my e-mail group sent me an article from the Wall Street Journal, which had this observation:

Brace yourself for a Republican Wave, as voters shift their attention to the economy and crime, polls begin to hint at a major GOP advantage.

It's the authors view the Republican Party is on the verge of a major political upheaval, noting that currently the "GOP has a five point lead among likely voters, but a 21 point margin in competitive congressional districts." Here's how they outline what's happening.

Right now Democrats control the House 220-212, with three vacant seats, and 218 needed for a majority. At this point polls indicate Republicans should take 221 seats, Democrats 176, with another 38 seats as toss ups.

That alone gives Republicans the House as majority of a full House is 218, meaning if all the polls are correct, and if the toss up seats spit down the middle, that will give the Republicans a 240-195 majority. If the toss up seats all go Republican that makes it a 259-176, but at this point, the toss up seats may no longer matter, because if all is correctly being analyzed, the House goes Republican.

The House has always been more prone to shifts versus than the Senate, and while I don't believe in polls, even when they agree with me, I do believe in the happiness equation, and Americans are unhappy, very unhappy, and for a lot more reason than just economics and crime, so I'm now expecting a huge turnover in the House, and a higher turn over than just two seats in the Senate and possibly as many as six, but I think certainly it will be more than two.

It's also my view if the Senate goes Republican Mitch McConnell will be challenged as the Republican leader by the young bulls coming in. Most of whom will not be intimidated or coerced by Mitch McConnell and the old bulls of the party, because conservative Republicans are now the dominate party base, and they're not happy with Congressional Republicans and will be sending a much more conservative class to the Congress in both the House and Senate, and will be demanding change. I think we'll see a Republican civil war similar to the war between the AOC mob and Nancy Pelosi. Whether of not McConnell wins the leaders role remains to be seen, but he will be seriously weakened.