Is Big Government Popular?

December 13, 2024 by Dan Mitchell @ International Liberty

Big government and socialism are bad for prosperity, but are such policies nonetheless popular? Do people want a bigger welfare state?

This great video from the Fraser Institute provides the answers (if you’re pressed for time, start watching at 4:15).

And if you don’t have time to even watch the last few minutes of the video, the big takeaway is that a majority of people tell pollsters that they want a bigger welfare state, but only if somebody else is paying for it.

 

This is very consistent with polling data I shared back in 2016.

Supporters of Bernie Sanders wanted (and presumably still want) to massively expand the welfare state. But only a tiny fraction of them were willing to pay significantly more taxes.

What they want, of course, is class-warfare taxes.

But there’s a tiny, itsy-bitsy, teeny-weeny problem with that approach. Simply stated, there are not enough rich people to finance big government. Not even close to enough.

There are two reason why I know this is true.

• First, Brian Riedl’s should-be famous Chartbook has all the detailed numbers showing that this is the case.
• Second, if it was possible to finance big government by taxing the rich, some left-leaning country would have already done it.

Indeed, I specifically put together my Twelfth Theorem of Government in hopes of educating folks on the left on this point.

The bottom line is that every nation with a big welfare state also imposes massive tax burdens on lower-income and middle-class households.

Every. Single. One.

P.S. This knowledge has important political implications. In order to have any chance of electing another Ronald Reagan (or, even better, someone like Javier Milei), that candidate will need to frame the debate so that people are choosing between the high-tax/high-spend agenda or the low-tax/low-spend agenda.

Interestingly, we already know the answer.