Climate Models and COVID-19 Models

By Norman Rogers April 15, 2020

 

Computer models are seductive even though they are very often completely wrong. The more complicated they are the greater chance that they are wrong. Like children, they copy their parents -- the model architects. Confirmation bias involves cherry picking facts to obtain a result consistent with preexisting beliefs. A complicated computer model with many degrees of freedom is a perfect environment for confirmation bias to have its way. The investigator usually will believe, or at least claim, that his model is objectively setup without bias entering into the effort.

Not all computer models are wrong. Sometimes they produce good predictions. But all too often they fail and the failures are not acknowledged because the modelers are emotionally or ideologically attached to their creation............Climate models still enjoy support in spite of 30 years of failure............COVID-19 models are new but have had notable failures. For example, the IMHE model predicted up to two million deaths but has been repeatedly adjusted and now is down to 60,000 deaths. Usually it is claimed that the model is not wrong, but deaths are lower because the American people have been good boys and girl

If someone discovers a cure for the disease, or at least a therapy that makes the disease’s effects minor, then the scientists working to stop the spread of the disease become suddenly irrelevant. That explains the hostility shown to potential therapeutics like hydroxychloroquine and Remdesivir. Hydroxychloroquine has the additional burden that President Trump suggested that it might be helpful. ............
 

Hydroxychloroquine is blacklisted because Trump suggested that it is worth trying. At least three (Democrat) governors have literally blacklisted it by restricting availability and usage. The social-control doctors act as if therapeutics are a distant possibility and ignore them as much as possible.............All this is mixed up with Trump hatred. It is sad, but true, that many of the Trump haters would rather have an economic and social disaster than see Trump reelected.......To Read More...