What Happens When the Coronavirus Models are Wrong?

April 20, 2020 By Brian C. Joondeph

As we hunker down under social distancing and stay-at-home orders, the Chinese coronavirus continues to extract a human toll in actual illness, as well as under-reported socio-economic costs. Many businesses are closed, people are not working, not earning an income, unable to socialize with friends and family.

The human tragedy that follows the virus will be horrific. Drug addiction, alcoholism, mental health issues, domestic violence, homelessness, and suicides may extract a toll far worse than the virus. Yet these costs are given scant attention, leaving the focus on ICU beds, hydroxychloroquine, and death counts.

When will the restrictions be lifted? How long until life returns to some semblance of normal? The answers will come from state governors and the president, but how do they know? They have advisors, like the basketball player and scarf queen, who use models, which are simply educated guesses based on certain data and assumptions.

Models aren’t a bad thing, but they have their limits. They follow the expression, “garbage in, garbage out.” Models are used to forecast everything from the weather to stock prices.

For example, models are used to predict hurricanes. Recall the spaghetti line plots preceding every hurricane, each squiggly line based on a particular hurricane model. Some veer into the Gulf of Mexico, others hit South Florida, and others head north to the Carolinas or out to sea. At most, only one line will be correct, but each is based on a model.........To Read More....