Search This Blog

De Omnibus Dubitandum - Lux Veritas

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Mathematical Models Must Be Grounded In Reality

By  April 21st, 2020

Not once when we boarded a plane to New York City did we check into the cockpit (in the days one could do that) to give the captain advice on navigating our plane to its intended destination. However, if instead, we landed in Chicago, whatever the captain’s credentials, we knew he had goofed and we were likely to avoid that airline in the future.

You would think such a principle was so obvious that all laymen would employ it in every contact with any professional. If your new dental implant fell out, sack the dentist. If your new home addition fell down, sue the builder. But in one tiny yet catastrophically expensive field of human endeavor, this rule seems to have been suspended for decades. That field is climate change science.

This is the field where one plus two can be equal to three one day and six the next. Yet never may the layman question the expert at the blackboard, or the shrill demand for a billion or two dollars more to make the sum be whatever they wish it to be.

This could be about to change, however, as the world has witnessed the daily predictions of the spread and result of the Chinese coronavirus based on mathematical models finally being seen to have little accuracy when so many input variables remain unknown...............To Read More....

No comments:

Post a Comment