By John Mauldin January 4, 2019
Remember when it was a January ritual to fill in the new year on your blank checks? If you’re under 50, probably not. That we can now avoid that chore is one of life’s unsung little pleasures. But this time of year still comes, and by popular demand I must tell you what I think 2019 will bring.
In a nutshell, I expect to spend this year Living Dangerously. Yes, I’m thinking of the 1982 film starring a very youthful Mel Gibson and Sigourney Weaver, based on an earlier Christopher Koch novel. It has an Asian setting and features corrupt politics, neophyte journalists, international intrigue plus a gender-bending Chinese dwarf. If you aren’t sure how all those fit together, then welcome to 2019. We are all stuck in this craziness and can only make the best of it.
Nonetheless, having an outlook still helps. We’re all blasted with too much information and it’s easy to get overwhelmed. I find that having a framework helps organize my thoughts. Of course you have to be flexible and modify the framework when it no longer fits (if the facts change, etc.). But that’s better than floating aimlessly, at least to me.
Another thing that can help is the Mauldin Economics Alpha Society, which is open to new members for a few more days. The Alpha Society is an exclusive “lifetime pass” that gives you all our premium research services and many other benefits for as long as we publish them.
For example, Alpha Society members get to read Over My Shoulder, in which I share some of the fascinating expert knowledge that hits my inbox each week, along with a quick summary to save you time. Recently we sent material from James Montier, Art Cashin, Ed Yardeni, Louis Gave, Peter Boockvar, and more.
That’s just the start. I highly suggest you go here and read about the other valuable Alpha Society benefits. I think you’ll be impressed.
Now, let’s look ahead to 2019............To Read More.....
My Take - For me reading about the intricacies of economics is much like reading about statistics. I read books, articles, commentaries and my eyes roll up into my head. Why? Because economics, much like statistics, is arcane. They create all these complicated systems that are meant to allow for the insiders to get rich, or create a narrative that suits their own values, wants and needs, leaving the rest of us scratching our heads. Statistics is called the arcane science, and rightly so. Economics is just as bad.
How can I say that?
Because if you get 25 economists in a room and ask their opinion you'll get 25 different opinions, each promoting the narrative they support. If you get 25 statisticians in a room and ask their opinion they'll present 25 different charts to prove the narrative they're promoting is the right one. S
But here it is in a nut shell. My grandfather was one of the world's great economists. He said if you spend more than you make you will go broke. Everything else is smoke and mirrors.
Double, double, toil and trouble;
Fire burn and cauldron bubble.
Fire burn and cauldron bubble.
…By the pricking of my thumbs,
Something wicked this way comes.
Something wicked this way comes.
- William Shakespeare, Macbeth, Act IV, Scene I, 1606
In a nutshell, I expect to spend this year Living Dangerously. Yes, I’m thinking of the 1982 film starring a very youthful Mel Gibson and Sigourney Weaver, based on an earlier Christopher Koch novel. It has an Asian setting and features corrupt politics, neophyte journalists, international intrigue plus a gender-bending Chinese dwarf. If you aren’t sure how all those fit together, then welcome to 2019. We are all stuck in this craziness and can only make the best of it.
Nonetheless, having an outlook still helps. We’re all blasted with too much information and it’s easy to get overwhelmed. I find that having a framework helps organize my thoughts. Of course you have to be flexible and modify the framework when it no longer fits (if the facts change, etc.). But that’s better than floating aimlessly, at least to me.
Another thing that can help is the Mauldin Economics Alpha Society, which is open to new members for a few more days. The Alpha Society is an exclusive “lifetime pass” that gives you all our premium research services and many other benefits for as long as we publish them.
For example, Alpha Society members get to read Over My Shoulder, in which I share some of the fascinating expert knowledge that hits my inbox each week, along with a quick summary to save you time. Recently we sent material from James Montier, Art Cashin, Ed Yardeni, Louis Gave, Peter Boockvar, and more.
That’s just the start. I highly suggest you go here and read about the other valuable Alpha Society benefits. I think you’ll be impressed.
Now, let’s look ahead to 2019............To Read More.....
My Take - For me reading about the intricacies of economics is much like reading about statistics. I read books, articles, commentaries and my eyes roll up into my head. Why? Because economics, much like statistics, is arcane. They create all these complicated systems that are meant to allow for the insiders to get rich, or create a narrative that suits their own values, wants and needs, leaving the rest of us scratching our heads. Statistics is called the arcane science, and rightly so. Economics is just as bad.
How can I say that?
Because if you get 25 economists in a room and ask their opinion you'll get 25 different opinions, each promoting the narrative they support. If you get 25 statisticians in a room and ask their opinion they'll present 25 different charts to prove the narrative they're promoting is the right one. S
But here it is in a nut shell. My grandfather was one of the world's great economists. He said if you spend more than you make you will go broke. Everything else is smoke and mirrors.
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