Startling Gallup Poll Shows Black, Hispanic Support for Dems Collapsing

It looks like the rumblings are true. 

By Leesa K. Donner Feb 11, 2024 @ Liberty Nation News Tags: Articles, Opinion, Politics

There has been quite a bit of political chatter regarding the black and Hispanic voting blocs in the upcoming election. Several polls have indicated the two demographic groups, both longtime, bedrock Democratic Party voters, are thinking of taking a walk on the wild side. A new Gallup Poll has confirmed such a shift, and the results are alarming for those on the left.

  Here’s the money quote: “The Democratic Party’s wide lead over Republicans in Black Americans’ party preferences has shrunk by nearly 20 points over the past three years.” This is the bottom line from Gallup. Twenty points in a single demographic is saying something. Worse still for the Democratic Party is the sample size: 12,145 Americans over age 18 from two combined Gallup surveys. In pollster language, that’s one heck of an extensive poll. Most nationwide political surveys are based on a sample of 1,000 people. The reliability of this report – a margin of error of just one percent and a 95% confidence level – is also much higher than that of the standard national poll.

Gallup Poll – Black, Hispanic Voters Jumping Ship

This is not to say the Democrats aren’t still popular with both voting subgroups, but they are entering historically low territory. According to Gallup, the Democratic Party enjoyed a 66-point lead over the GOP among blacks just last year – but now it has sharply declined to 47%.

Regarding Hispanic voters, the Gallup poll noted Democrats registered a “12-point advantage among Hispanic adults in 2023,” which they say is a “new low.” In 2020, that advantage was 28%.

The big question is how these significant shifts in party identification will affect the upcoming presidential election. In order to look forward, we need to look back.

In 2016, an NBC exit poll survey reported Donald Trump with 8% of the black vote and 29% of the Hispanic vote. This was up from the GOP standard bearer, Mitt Romney in 2012, who received 6% from blacks and 27% from Hispanics. In 2020, Trump over performed in both demographic subgroups, capturing 12% of the African American vote and 32% of the Hispanic vote, according to the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

Despite the increase, Trump has still been crushed by the weight of Joe Biden’s numbers in these two voting categories. In 2020, 87% percent of blacks and 65% of Hispanics voted for Mr. Biden. But this time around, things are shaping up differently. The 2024 Biden camp is feeling the heat, knowing that it must shore up the vote with both subgroups to secure a victory. In December, Axios reported the president’s campaign was intent on making “surgical trips to minority communities in 2024.” Even left-leaning outlets such as Vox are worried that Biden won’t be able to perform as well as he did last time around with both demographic groups.

Just how important are these two voting blocs in the upcoming presidential contest? Liberty Nation Senior Political Analyst Tim Donner opined:

“Put simply, Joe Biden cannot win this time around without at least as much support from blacks and Hispanics as he received in his narrow electoral win in 2020. And his approval numbers in both demographic groups are – and have been for some time – downright catastrophic, as they would be for any Democrat. It is unclear what, if anything, such a feeble candidate can do to recapture the huge majorities among minorities that are vital to victory for his party. But whatever his strategy, he had better implement it immediately, or the jig is up.”

Before Republicans become too giddy about the party shift tallied by Gallup, it’s vital to remember that a key demographic leaning toward a different party might not necessarily turn into a vote for likely GOP nominee Donald Trump. This could translate into votes for independent or third-party candidates or even just a lower voter turnout, which is what happened to Hillary Clinton in 2016. By all accounts, Team Trump this time around is running a much tighter campaign than in 2020; if so, it would be wise for them to capitalize on this Gallup poll and turn the blacks and Hispanics disenchanted with the Democrats into newly minted Trump voters.

 

Read More From Leesa K. Donner

Who Needs Facts?

Steve Sailer May 03, 2023 

A central conundrum of the 2020s is why respectable opinion has gotten so out of touch with reality on questions touching race, such as crime. Are mainstream pundits lying, intimidated, deluded, hate-filled, or just stupid?  It’s an important and difficult question.  I ponder this because I’ve developed a reputation as the go-to guy on Twitter when celebrities say something smugly stupid about crime statistics. Most every day I see a tweet summoning me by showing Batman staring up at the Bat-Signal of my avatar, the 18th hole at Cypress Point Golf Club. (Yeah, it’s pretty cool.)  “When I pointed out the facts to Hasan, the author of Win Every Argument despaired and blocked me.”.............In contrast, we have the entire academic specialty of criminology, along with adjacent fields such as sociology and political science. But it’s hard to get a straight story out of any but a literal handful of them on this decade’s big topic of race and crime. So nobody seems to know anything.

For instance, last week, MSNBC talking head Mehdi Hasan, author of the New York Times best-seller Win Every Argument, became outraged that comedian Bill Maher had pointed out the high rate of black-on-black killings in Chicago. Hasan tweeted:

White people kill other white people at almost the same rate black people kill other black people & yet you never hear anyone complaining about ‘white on white crime.’ These aren’t points of sage wisdom from Maher. They are classic racist dog whistles.

.........Obviously, it’s not true that “white people kill other white people at almost the same rate black people kill other black people.” The fundamental reality of American criminal justice is that black people kill at a huge rate, even compared to Hispanics, much less whites or Asians............  In 2021, for instance, the FBI reported that blacks made up 60.4 percent of all known homicide offenders (a new record—apparently, something went very wrong in America on May 25, 2020).........There are multiple sophistries going on here..............To Read More...

Another Crash at the Intersectionality

Posted on December 13, 2022 by Steven Hayward in California, Identity Politics

It was only four years ago that Los Angeles City Councilman Kevin de Leon was the new shiny object for California progressives. He finished second in California’s jungle primary for the U.S. Senate seat held by Dianne Feinstein, and even if he couldn’t beat the fellow Democrat in the general election, he appeared set up to succeed her when she finally retired or resigned from office. Just today Feinstein, who hasn’t been heard from in months, issued a statement that she intends to finish out her current term.

If Feinstein does have to step down for health reasons, Gov. Gavin Newsom has already said that he would appoint a Black woman to replace her. Why not De Leon? (Or another Hispanic? Or—eeek—a male?)

Oh that’s right: De Leon was caught on that leaked recording a couple months ago disparaging black politicians in LA. He’s refusing to resign from the City Council. This is not sitting well with LA blacks, who are now outnumbered by Hispanics, but can perceive who stands higher in the Democratic Party hierarchy of victimhood—demographics be damned.

Here’s how they greeted De Leon a couple days ago:.............To Read More...

The Early Line on the Next Election

Posted on April 16, 2021 by Steven Hayward in 2022 Election, 2024 Election

There is something strange about the behavior of Biden and the Democrats that can be best explained by a combination of Progressive mania and panic that their power might well slip away from them unless they lock it down by changing the rules in their favor and whipping up paranoia within key minority groups who are showing signs of slipping away. Hence the relentless charges of racism.

Some items:

“Democrats Are Anxious About 2022 — and 2024,” Thomas Edsall wrote in the New York Times last month:

In the wake of the 2020 election, Democratic strategists are worried — very worried — about the future of the Hispanic vote. One in 10 Latinos who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016 switched to Donald Trump in 2020. . .

The 2020 expansion of Republican voting among Hispanics and Asian-Americans — and to a lesser extent among African-Americans — deeply concerns the politicians and strategists seeking to maintain Democratic control of the House and Senate in 2022, not the mention the White House in 2024.

It was initially thought that Hispanic men were attracted to the “macho” Trump, but as the data has come in, it appears that Trump improved his performance more with Hispanic women than men, which will add to Democratic paranoia. Another Times story:............To Read More.....

 

Latinx -- The Latest Leftist Educational Maneuver

May 9, 2020 By Eileen F. Toplansky

Rutgers University founded in 1766 is one of only nine colonial colleges established before the American Revolution. The alumni boast many who were predominant in the revolutionary founding. Inclusion and access began in 1867 when Kusakabe Taro was the first Japanese student to enroll in a U.S. college. In 1892 James Dickson Carr was the first African-American to graduate from Rutgers and in 1918 the New Jersey College for Women was founded on the campus.

Currently, at the Rutgers Department of Education Graduate Studies a move is afoot to "advance narratives of achievement and success in higher education among Latinx/a/o students. So according to Dr. Nichole Garcia, "a Mexican and Puerto Rican woman of color"

we need to understand the differences in the distinct groups that make up the Latinx/a/o community. Once we do, we will be better positioned to meet the diverse needs of these different groups by creating programming to ensure the success of all students and allocating funds.

Garcia wants to investigate "why Latinx/a/o are the largest ethnic population, but experience some of the lowest college completion rates."

Sounds laudable on the surface even though former Bronx Borough President and United States Representative Herman Badillo explained it quite succinctly in 2006 in his book titled One Nation, One Standard: An Ex-Liberal on How Hispanics Can Succeed Just Like Other Immigrant Groups. At the time, his answer was "as politically incorrect as the question: Hispanics simply don't put the same emphasis on education as other immigrant groups. As the nation's first Puerto Rican born U.S. congressman... Badillo once supported bilingual education and other government programs he thought would help the Hispanic community. But he came to see that the real path to prosperity, political unity, and the American mainstream is self-reliance, not big government." .........To Read More....

Which country are Democrats running to be president of?

June 27, 2019 By Monica Showalter

A lot of Latino voters were kind of creeped out by three of the Democratic candidates' calculated use of Spanish in their debate statements. Not only were Cory Booker, Julian Castro, and Beto O'Rourke observably poor Spanish speakers, their use of the Spanish language to appeal to the Latino voters was just a little too cute on the pandering front. And that doesn't even get into the matter of their Hugo Chavez-style socialist promises for them. For many Latino voters, been there, done that.span

I would have loved to have seen the fluently Spanish-speaking moderator test Castro, who reputedly speaks very little Spanish with a Spanish-language question. Meanwhile, the most fluent Spanish speaker on the floor, the Sandinista- and Cuban-trained Bill De Blasio, didn't join the panderfest. Maybe he didn't want anyone to ask him how he got so good at it...........

they know which country they're running to be president of? A little ethnic spice is always a welcome thing in politics, but what we are seeing here is an entire candidate base going overboard, promoting socialism and coming uncomfortably close to promoting Hugo Chavezism. Even the Americans of Latino descent are noticing and they aren't amused.

No wonder Trump is making such inroads with Latino voters. ............To Read More....

Say What?! MSNBC Stunned To Find Hispanics Who Oppose Illegal Aliens And Support Republicans

Matt Vespa Nov 02, 2018

Who knew that Hispanics could be Republicans? Well, everyone, except for a few reporters at MSNBC. With less than a week before the 2018 elections, the news organization sent a crew down to the Texas 7th congressional district, which Democrats think they can flip this year. The district has a high Latino population, but as Mariana Atencio found out, that doesn’t mean a guaranteed Democratic win.

In fact, MSNBC found Hispanic voters who support Republicans and legal immigration. It’s quite simple: if you want to come here, you have to go through the proper channels. It’s not racist. It’s not illogical. It’s common sense. Oh, and it happens to be the law........To Read More....