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Showing posts with label Best Science. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Best Science. Show all posts

Thursday, May 23, 2024

Some Obervations about Beliefs - Part 2

Some of my Business and Personal Beliefs

John Droz jr. May 22, 2024

When we use the word “Beliefs” many people think of religion. However, most of our Beliefs have nothing to do with religion. As outlined in Part 1, most of our Beliefs are our opinions about what things are, how things behave, etc. Some examples of Beliefs are “We need to use a lot more wind energy if we are going to save the planet” or “We should scrap the K-12 public school system and start over,” etc.

In Part 1 I wrote: we each have KEY Beliefs, that effectively run our life. Here are some of mine…

Some of my Primary Business Beliefs (as vs Personal):  

Our technical policies should be based on real Science. Our technical policies instead are based on political science. This (despite the misleading name) has nothing to do with real Science, and is actually politics.  Real Science is a Process.

  • The #1 Science Process is the Scientific Method. (This is an organized test of a hypothesis to determine its validity.)
  • The #2 Science Process is a Scientific Assessment. (This is an evaluation that is a) Objective, b) Comprehensive, c) Transparent, and d) Empirical.)

None of our alternative energy sources have been successfully subjected to either the Scientific Method or a Scientific Assessment!

As a result — no surprise — wind and solar are not economical, not reliable, and not environmentally friendly.

The Climate hypothesis (not theory!) has not been successfully subjected to either the Scientific Method or a Scientific Assessment.

As a result — again, no surprise — multiple holes and contradictions remain in the Climate hypothesis.

Healthcare is another technical matter. However, our healthcare policies are being determined by political influence, rather than by the two Science processes.

COVID publicly exposed this corruption as science-based therapies were first demeaned, and then replaced by inferior political science alternatives.

——————————

The primary objective of our K-12 education process should be that graduates have the ability and interest in doing Critical Thinking.

The most appropriate subject area to teach children how to be Critical Thinkers is Science (as real scientists are skeptics who automatically ask a lot of questions).

Instead, our children are being taught the opposite of Critical Thinking: conformity — e.g., defer to: experts, consensus, computers, political correctness, etc.

——————————

The most important objective of the US election process should be that there is election integrity (i.e., every citizen has one vote).

The only accurate way to assess whether there is election integrity, is a post-election forensic audit.

To date, there have been ZERO official post-election forensic audits — so ALL claims that we have had election integrity are complete speculation.

——————————

To defend their rights, citizens need to: a) get educated about the issues at stake, b) apply Critical Thinking, c) work together with allies, d) learn from what has worked (or not) in the past, and e) be persistent.

Some of my Primary Personal Beliefs (expressed as metaphors):

  1. Work as if everything depends on me, but pray as if everything depends on God
  2. Doing the Right Thing is often not the easiest choice at the time, but it is always the best choice in the long run (similar to: Two wrongs don’t make a right)
  3. Variety is the spice of life
  4. Keep It Simple (KISS)

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it (which is another version of Don’t Reinvent the Wheel)

  1. Time = Life: wasting our time is wasting our life.
  2. Waste not, want not
  3. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure
  4. Actions speak louder than words
  5. Say what you mean, and mean what you say
  6. If it’s worth doing, it’s worth doing right
  7. Many hands make light work
  8. The squeaky wheel gets greased
  9. Work before pleasure
  10. Changing the Beliefs of others is the way to get them to change their behavior

------------------------------------------------------------

Some final food for thought:

Experience is the hardest teacher as  she gives the test first and the lesson afterwards...

------------------------------------------------------------

Part 3 will wrap up our overview of Beliefs. It is about getting others to see the merits of your perspective, and to change their actions accordingly.


Here are other materials by this scientist that you might find interesting:

Check out the Archives of this Critical Thinking substack.

WiseEnergy.org: discusses the Science (or lack thereof) behind our energy options.

C19Science.info: covers the lack of genuine Science behind our COVID-19 policies.

Election-Integrity.info: multiple major reports on the election integrity issue.

Media Balance Newsletter: a free, twice-a-month newsletter that covers what the mainstream media does not do, on issues from COVID to climate, elections to education, renewables to religion, etc. Here are the Newsletter’s 2024 Archives. Please send me an email to get your free copy. When emailing me, please make sure to include your full name and the state where you live. (Of course, you can cancel the Media Balance Newsletter at any time - but why would you?

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Posted by Rich Kozlovich at 5:11 AM No comments:
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Labels: Best Science, Covid, GW, John Droz

Sunday, April 28, 2019

President-Elect Trump, Science, and Healthcare

By Michael D. Shaw @ Shaw's Eco-Logic

With any big election, there is plenty of the “thrill of victory and the agony of defeat.” (Apologies to ABC television writer Stanley Ralph Ross.) In the recent contest, some on the “agony of defeat” side have been weighing in on how Mr. Trump might impact science and healthcare. It’s no secret that British journal Nature has become politicized, and it offers up a few tweets under the title “How scientists reacted to the US election results—Trump victory generates shock, disbelief and fear of funding cuts.”

“This is terrifying for science, research, education, and the future of our planet. I guess it’s time for me to go back to Europe.”

“Good luck with funding. Ps my heart is *breaking* for all the young scientists I helped to teach and raise.”

“I do breast cancer research for my PhD.…Scared not only my future but for the future of research and next years @NIH budget.”

Other sources quoted numerous academic scientists who are concerned that cuts in immigration might stop the flow of foreign slave labor (aka grad students). And, there were many references to Trump’s climate change skepticism; his sympathy to those who link autism to vaccinations; and his unhappiness with the NIH.

Let’s unpack this. There is little doubt that the number of foreign graduate students in the sciences has increased dramatically over the last 30 years. For a variety of reasons, American youth have lost some interest in research science—and it goes beyond the lack of job opportunities. As we have noted in an earlier column, Science has over-promised and under-delivered, and it’s getting more difficult to fool the public.

More than that, greed in the halls of academic science knows no bounds. Its profligate ways are shamelessly aided and abetted by deep-pocketed granting agencies such as NIH. Last year, in an article examining research using fetal tissue, we highlighted colossal NIH grants for projects that quite likely would never have any practical value—beyond a welfare scheme for the universities involved.

As to climate change skepticism, Trump has plenty of company. Many people dispute the science involved; the untold billions spent “studying” the problem; and the highly suspicious concomitant massive UN and government power grab. And, let’s not forget the suffocating elitism inherent in trying to prevent poorer countries from improving their lot with abundant electrical energy and infrastructure development.

One is reminded of Arthur Wellesley, Duke of Wellington, commenting on the grand opening of the Liverpool and Manchester Railway in 1830: “[Railroads will] only encourage the common people to move about needlessly.”

Regarding vaccines/autism, an outright simple connection has been ruled out—at least on an epidemiological basis. And yet, too many correlation/possible causation anecdotes persist. But, where is Science in all this? After all, the ridiculous research of Andrew Wakefield—which attempted to link the MMR vaccine to autism—was published in 1998 in the prestigious journal The Lancet. Notwithstanding its bogus methodology, and a chorus of voices criticizing both the work and Wakefield himself, the article was not retracted until 2010.

More disturbing, perhaps, is that the work of Michael Goldberg MD and others—whereby a neuro-immune origin for autism is proffered—has been painstakingly ignored by most of the medical establishment.

Sadly, since our healthcare system is more aptly described as “disease care,” there is clearly far more money in disease than health. As such, the prospect of lifelong medical intervention for autistic kids makes more business sense to the mandarins of healthcare, than astonishing improvements and even cures, documented by Goldberg. Here and here.

Finally, it must be said that many—if not most—people in science reside on the political left. One explanation is that so many of them derive their livelihoods from government grants. I suggest that they now use their long-idled powers of rational thought to reevaluate their current situation.
Posted by Rich Kozlovich at 1:53 PM No comments:
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Labels: Academia, Autism, Autism Spectrum Disorder, Best Science, Health Care, Leftists, Mike Shaw, Trump

Thursday, August 10, 2017

How Many Constitute 97%?

By Rich Kozlovich

(Editor's Note:  Originally posted here on Tuesday, December 23, 2014, again on May 11, 2017 - but with this constantly being thrown up I felt it worth posting again.  It will be interesting to see what the left does when the Canadian courts finally rule against him and the counter suits begin against Mann and most likely David Suzuki.  Those won't be SLAPP suits.  RK)

In order to have clarity on any subject we first need it defined. From the beginning The High Priest of the Church of the Warming Globe, Al Gore, proclaimed in Pontifical confidence - "The science is settled"! We have been told from the beginning that "97% of scientists agree" that mankind's introduction of CO2 into the atmosphere is warming the globe so dramatically we only had months before we reached the tipping point of no return, therefore "we can't wait", we must act now.

The first thing that struck me about the phrase "97% of scientists agree" was they didn't claim 97% of "all" scientists agree. That should have triggered this question in everyone's mind.

How many constitute 97%?

The number of scientists should have been of more concern than the percentage of scientists. Why? There's a reason statistics is called the arcane science. If there was anything that generates more logical fallacies I don’t know what it is, because you can make statistics say anything you like if you leave important things out.

In July of 2012 Barry Woods wrote an article entitled, "What else did the ‘97% of scientists ’say?" he asks, "I wonder just how many politicians, environmentalists or scientists who use the phrase ‘97% of scientists’ (or those who more carefully use ‘active climate scientists’) to give weight to their arguments regarding climate change to the public, have any idea of the actual source of this soundbite?”

He goes on to say: 

“Perhaps a few may say the ‘Doran Survey’, which is the one of the most common references for this ‘97% of active climate scientists’ phrase. In fact, the Doran EoS paper merely cites a MSc thesis for the actual source of this 97% figure and the actual survey.”…. “

The Doran paper has been criticised by many sceptics in the past, where a survey of 10,256 with 3146 respondents was whittled down to 75 out of 77 “expert” ‘active climate researchers’ (ACR) to give the 97% figure, based on just two very simplistic (shallow) questions that even the majority of sceptics might agree with. Lawrence Soloman made one of many critiques of the Doran Paper here and offers a very good summary, some other reviews here, here and here”

Let’s take a look at this. The 97% figure they tout is in reality the views of just 75 out of 77 scientists of unknown scientific discipline. Originally a survey was sent to 10,265 scientists - a credible number - but this is where the story starts to get interesting - only 3,146 responded. It would appear that right from the very beginning they lost approximately 60% of “all” scientists by not responding.  I think it isn't unreasonable to presume they didn't respond because they didn't agree with the basic premise of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) that mankind was responsible. That leaves 3,146 to make up that 97% figure. Right? Well, actually no, and the story of the fabled 97% gets even better.

Now we need to ask: What did all those 3,146 scientists have to say? We don’t know! Why? Because they apparently didn’t like what almost all of them had to say since the number of “acceptable” responders was whittled down from 3,146 to 77.

Remember they lost approximately 60% of “scientists” right from the get go, and now they’ve dumped another 3,069 leaving 77, and only 75 agreed. Think about this. The percentage of scientists who actually agree (using their own base of 10,265) is only approximately .075%. One might ask why they allowed two “deniers”, or at the very least two not entirely on board with AGW? If they published a claim of 100% even the Warmists would have laughed at them.

There are a number of things we take away from this. This mythical figure of 97% of scientists isn’t even 97 scientists and consensus isn’t science, it’s politics and if you “check out the history of science…you will find that scientific discovery is generally made by ignoring the ‘consensus..’  We know the world officially stopped warming 18 years ago in spite of the fact CO2 levels have risen - a rise and fall has been going on all through the Earth's history - and currently only constitutes .037% of our atmosphere, of which humanities contribution to that number is infinitesimally small - we've passed virtually every tipping point they touted and the world’s still here - the oceans haven't risen, the poles haven't melted and all the models predicting a warming disaster have failed or are failing.
 
The Hockey Stick Graph has been shown to be so seriously flawed it has been called fraudulent, and since he lost his SLAPP suit against scientist Tim Ball in Canada he faces “Massive counterclaims, in excess of $10 million, have just been filed against climate scientist Michael Mann after lawyers affirmed that the former golden boy of global warming alarmism had sensationally failed in his exasperating three-year bid to sue skeptic Canadian climatologist, Tim Ball. Door now wide open for criminal investigation into Climategate conspiracy.”  
 
Dr. Tim Ball used, what's called in Canada the Truth Defense, also known as the Scorched Earth Defense. All Mann had to do was to "hand over those “hockey stick” r-squared correlation coefficient numbers" to demonstrate the validity of his work.  Why didn't he in Canada? And why is he apparently failing to do so in his SLAPP suit against Styne here in America?
 
As for the statement that "97% of scientists agree", we can now confidently say that figure along with everything else the warmists have presented is so seriously flawed they can be ignored with impunity.  It's clear from their own figures there are only .075% of "some" scientists polled who think mankind is destroying the Earth with carbon dioxide emissions and the only thing that will prevent it is to destroy our modern industrial society, return to nature and live short miserable lives.  And many of the world’s leaders think this is a good idea!  

Did I ever mention in the past you can’t fix stupid? Which in this case couples corruption and insanity

Editor's Note:  Here's an update on the Mann/Ball Canadian lawsuit.  No matter how Mann's attorney attempts to twist the facts there's one incontrovertible truth - Mann has refused to turn over the documents as he agreed, and under Canadian law "Not releasing his secret science for open courtroom examination means, legally, this is an omission proving a guilty mind. B.C. case law is specific on this, it tells us intentional withholding of key evidence is an “admission of guilt” (id.)."
Posted by Rich Kozlovich at 7:02 AM No comments:
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Labels: 97%, Best Science, Consensus, GW, My Commentary, My GW Commentaries

Friday, July 27, 2012

Explaining Science

By Rich Kozlovich

Over the last few years we have kept hearing how 'consensus' is science. Baloney! The reality of the green movement and their claims about almost everything is now and has been consistently wrong since Rachel Carson spewed out her unscientific dogma in 'Silent Spring'.

I have been saying for years that 'everything we are told should bear some resemblance to what we see going on in reality'. That is science!



###
Posted by Rich Kozlovich at 2:51 PM No comments:
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Labels: Best Science, My Commentary

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Chemicals and Cancer

Everything we are told should bear some resemblance to what we see going on in reality!

By Rich Kozlovich

Recently the Environmental Protection Agency accepted public comments regarding Ohio’s request for an emergency Section 18 exemption for propoxur in order to help bring this plague of bed bugs under control. A letter was sent to EPA from one of the anti-pesticide groups insisting that EPA refuse this request claiming, among other things, that propoxur causes cancer; in spite of the fact that the MSDS sheet clearly states that propoxur is not carcinogenic.

In an article I saved some time back a writer outlined the three pillars of science.

• The first is fallibility. The fact that you can be wrong, and if so proven by experimental input, any hypothesis can be—indeed, must be—corrected. .

• The second pillar of science is that by its very nature, science is impersonal. There is no ‘us’, there is no ‘them’. There is only the quest.

• The third pillar of science is peer group assessment. This allows for validation of your thesis by fellow scientists and is usually done in confidence.

We shall avail ourselves of these pillars to come to an understanding of the subject of chemicals and cancer. I will state this from the onset. Pesticides do not cause cancer, and that includes DDT. Science is firmly based on these three pillars; these claims about chemicals and cancer are superstition; which is based on mysticism. Let's listen to real scientists and those who have followed this issue for years.

Angela Logomasini, director of risk and environmental policy at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, states that “In recent decades, many have claimed that cancer is rising because of increased use of human made chemicals. But if chemicals were a source of health problems, one might expect that as chemical use increased around the world, there would be a measurable adverse effect on life expectancy, cancer rates, or other illnesses. Yet in developed nations, where chemical use has greatly increased, people are living longer, healthier lives.”

In another article entitled “The True Causes of Cancer” Logomasini observes that, “Environmental activists have long claimed that man-made chemicals are causing rampant cancer rates that could be addressed only by government regulation. Accordingly, lawmakers have passed laws directing government agencies to study environmental causes of cancer, estimate the number of lives allegedly lost, and devise regulations to reduce death rates. However, lawmakers should be aware of some key problems with how this system has worked in practice. First, the claim that chemical pollution is a major cancer cause is wrong. Second, agencies have relied on faulty scientific methods that grossly overestimate potential cancer deaths from chemicals and potential lives saved by regulation. As a result, regulatory policy tends to divert billions of dollars from other life-saving uses or from other efforts to improve quality of life to pay for unproductive regulations.”

An article which appeared in the New York Post by Jeff Stier of the American Council on Science and Health entitled, “A Cancer Non-Epidemic” states; “We have an epidemic of disbelief about cancer in this country -- but it's the opposite of what you probably expect. Cancer death rates have been falling for years, and now are falling even faster. Yet it's still stories about allegedly ignored cancer threats that grab our attention. If death rates were rising, the situation would (rightly) be front-page news. But the new report by the Centers for Disease Control and the American Cancer Society notes that the rate of decline in U.S. cancer deaths has doubled. And that story got buried (A18 in The New York Times, nowhere in the Wall Street Journal). Most people will have forgotten the good news by the next time an activist group talks up "the cancer epidemic."

In 2006 this was published on the National Cancer Institute, U.S. National Institutes of Health web site. “Annual Report to the Nation Finds Cancer Death Rates Continue to Drop; Lower Cancer Rates Observed in U.S. Latino Populations -A new report from the nation's leading cancer organizations finds that Americans' risk of dying from cancer continues to drop, maintaining a trend that began in the early 1990s. However, the rate of new cancers remains stable. The "Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, 1975-2003, Featuring Cancer among U.S. Hispanic/Latino Populations" is published in the October 15, 2006, issue of Cancer*. The report includes comprehensive data on trends over the past several decades for all major cancers. It shows that the long-term decline in overall cancer death rates continued through 2003 for all races and both sexes combined. The declines were greater among men (1.6 percent per year from 1993 through 2003) than women (0.8 percent per year from 1992 through 2003).”

Bjorn Lomborg in his book, The Skeptical Environmentalist, notes that if you were to compare the cancer rates and demographics from the turn of the last century to the turn of this century you would see two startling statistics. In the early 1900's few people smoked and few people lived to be over sixty five, which is why sixty five was chosen as the retirement age for Social Security purposes.

When the Chesterfield Girl died of lung cancer in 1992, Pulitzer Prize winning nationally syndicated columnist George Will wrote an article about it.

He recited an account where “at Barnes Hospital in St. Louis in 1919, a doctor summoned some medical students to an autopsy, saying the patient’s disease was so rare that most of the students would never see it again. It was lung cancer.”

Cancer is mostly an affliction of smokers and the aged. Yet we see the cancer rates dropping and we have a lot of smokers and a lot of over sixty five people. It those two demographics were taken out of the modern equation the drop in cancer rates would even more impressive.

“Dr. Bruce Ames is the recipient of the General Motors Cancer Research Foundation Prize and of the Tyler Prize for environmental achievement. He has served on the National Cancer Institute board of directors, and he's a member of the National Academy of Sciences” found through his research that naturally occurring chemicals, when fed in extremely high doses to test animals, were as likely to test carcinogenic as synthetic chemicals produced by chemical companies.

“At one time, he was the darling of the environmental movement. But now, the members of that movement have turned on him with a vengeance, accusing him of aiding and abetting "Corporate America," although he accepts no money other than his university salary”. Unfortunately his conclusion “was a very politically incorrect conclusion.” Ames said that, “The environmentalist activists, ‘have a religion’ that says that corporations are behind an exploding epidemic of cancer.”

This idea that “a rodent is a little man” became a valuable weapon for environmental activists and in 1958 the Delaney Clause required the Food and Drug Administration to ban any substance that cause cancer in animals….even when fed doses that could never be reached in a person’s lifetime of massive everyday use. In short, Delaney outlined the idea that if a substance causes cancer at any level, it causes cancer at every level. This is not science. Until then it was clearly understood that the dose makes the poison. At some point the molecular load of any substance becomes too small to impact cells. This “any dose is deadly” mentality lingers in spite of the fact that toxicologists disagree.

In 2005 the American Council on Science and Health (ACSH) petitioned the EPA to “eliminate "junk science" from the process by which it determines whether a substance is likely to cause cancer in humans.”

“The petition, filed on behalf of ACSH by the Washington Legal Foundation (WLF), a public interest law firm, argues that current EPA guidelines violate the Information Quality Act (IQA) -- the law that requires the federal government to ensure the "equality, objectivity, utility, and integrity" of information it dispenses to the public.”

“Specifically, EPA routinely declares chemicals "carcinogens" -- implying a likelihood of a health threat to humans -- based solely on the creation of tumors in lab rodents by the administration of super high doses irrelevant to ordinary human exposure levels. Furthermore, effects in a single species may not be applicable to another species (rat tests do not even reliably predict effects in mice, which are closely related to rats, let alone effects in humans), though similar effects in multiple species might be an indicator of a genuine problem.”

Bruce Ames notes that “there are major problems with this procedure.

• One, animals aren't necessarily the best stand-ins for humans. In fact, 30% of the time, a chemical that causes cancer in mice won't do so in rats and vice versa, even though these species are much closer to each other than they are to humans.

• For another, the dose given the animals is on average almost 400,000 times the dose that the Environmental Protection Agency tries to protect humans against.”

The ACSH went on to “request that EPA eliminate statements that indicate that a substance may properly be labeled a "likely" human carcinogen based solely or primarily on the results of animal studies. Such statements are scientifically unsound, argues the petition, which notes that the great majority of toxicologists share that assessment.”

EPA continually dodged this by extending their deadline for responding. Finally five months later they claimed that their “Risk Assessment Guidelines are not statements of scientific fact -- and thus not covered by the IQA -- but merely statements of EPA policy.” My question was then and still is; if EPA policy isn’t based on science, then what is it based on?

I think Dr. Elizabeth Whelan answers this best. “This is a free country, and we all have the right to be guided by superstitions, no matter how nonsensical; for example, my mother still forbids me to open an umbrella in her apartment. But we should no longer tolerate the mindless regulatory ritual of banning useful, safe chemicals "at the drop of a rat."

Sources:
1. Leaders & Success: Bruce Ames, by Michael Fumento
2. Cancer Trends , and, The True Causes of Cancer, by Angela Logomasini
3. A Cancer Non-Epidemic, and, We Should Expect More from the EPA, by Jeff Stier, Esq.
4. Annual Report to the Nation Finds Cancer Death Rates Continue to Drop; Lower Cancer Rates Observed in U.S. Latino Populations - National Cancer Institute, U.S. National Institutes of Health.
5. The Skeptical Environmentalist, by Bjorn Lomborg

This originally appeared in the May Issue of the Ohio Pest Management's quarterly newsletter, The Standard. RK

.
Posted by Rich Kozlovich at 4:57 AM No comments:
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Rich Kozlovich
Truth is the sublime convergence of history and reality. Everything we’re told has a historical context and foundation. Everything we’re told should bear some resemblance to what we’re actually seeing going on in reality. If what’s presented to us fails in either category it’s wrong. All that’s left to do is develop the intellectual response to explain why it’s wrong. It's my view to be green is to be irrational, misanthropic, and morally defective. Diversity without accomplishment is philosophy without form and incompetence without consequence, and has nothing to do with fairness. Global warming isn’t about saving the planet, it’s about imposing a tyrannical socialistic system of global governance on the world. A system that has been shown to be disastrous and morally vacuous forever. They are the barbarians at the gate we must stand against. Our greatest worry is those within who support and facilitate their misanthropic goals. E-Mail: elkoz@juno.com, and any messages will be considered public domain.
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