It's the Balkans Again!

By Rich Kozlovich

For those who don't know, at one time Serbia was part of the empire of Austria-Hungary, and a lot of Serbians didn't like it.  WWI was started by the assassination of the Arch Duke Ferdinand and his wife by a Serbian nationalist, so, that explains the title of this article.   

Before we move on I think it's wise to review my My Seven Rules of Geopolitics:

1. First Rule of Geopolitics: All geopolitics is about four factors, geographics, demographics, economics, and that most elusive factor of all, the happiness factor.  
   
2. Second Rule of Geopolitics:  Everything is about the basics.  You have to be able to see issues at their foundational root levels in order to understand and fix complex problems.
   
3. Third Rule of Geopolitics:  History is everything since historical events lay the foundation for the social paradigms of nations, which have been in effect for centuries in most areas of the world.
   
4. Fourth Rule of Geopolitics:  People are like nations, and will act in their own best interests, unless they don't.  
5. Fifth Rule of Geopolitics: Nothing is ever as it appears.  Look behind the curtain, there's always something hidden. 
6. Sixth Rule of Geopolitics:  The patterns of life keep repeating over and over again. 
   
7. Seventh Rule of Geopolitics:  Everyone lies.    
   

All of those rules come into play here.  

As I've reported in the past I subscribe to Geopolitical Futures, and I think it's well worth the price.   So, daily I get reports and/or articles generated by their analysts.  Today I received one from George Friedman, who owns GF, regarding the the Russo/Ukrainian War, the Balkans, and Hungary entitled, Europe Comes to Boil: the Balkans, Hungary and Russia.  Since this is a subscription article I will outline the highlights, insights, and my take on this.  

George knows everyone, and people around the world share their insights with him, and there are those in the know who are sounding concerns to him over things going on in the Balkans that could boil over.  And truthfully, I've been paying attention to that whole Balkan/Caucuses scenario and the potential for an explosion is very real.  How big an explosion is debatable.

George highlights the historical Balkan conflicts that are beginning to boil between Serbia, Bosnia Herzegovina, and Hungary's involvement, and their ties with Russia.  It gets convoluted and a bit of a mess.  But when has anything involving the Balkans not been convoluted and a mess?   Even during WWII the Serbians held off thirty German divisions, and combined local forces, at the substantial loss of civilian life in retaliation for their resistance, and butchered each other at the same time.  If there ever were people who hate peace and security, it's the Balkan peoples.  Almost as if peace too long endured is a disease. Being Serbian, I know the history, and it's not been pretty.   

Serbians are having demonstrations against their government's corruption.  Serbs in Bosnia Herzegovina are demonstrating over their treatment by the Bosnian government, and it appears Hungary's President Orban's visit triggered this in some way I don't understand, but Serbia's a mess, and that's fertile ground for violence.  Serbia has been friendly with Russia for years, and vise versa, and that's generated some concerns over this, as George notes:

Let’s assume the unlikely: that Russia will use the advantages gained in the Balkans to threaten Ukraine’s flank and rear by posting troops there, or simply threatening a flanking maneuver. If that were the case, the important question would be what it would do next. The reason the U.S. supports Ukraine is that it is afraid of what moves Russia might make if victory opens new avenues of attack. If Russia can break through, it will have won land broken by war. Moscow is losing much in this war and may be looking for something more.

So, if that should happen what next?  Does Putin think he can restore to Russian control of the territory formally controlled by the Soviet Union? George goes on to extrapolate potentials for expanded Russian military efforts saying; 

 

Hungary is generally flat, and a sophisticated force could easily defeat it. If Ukraine collapsed, there would be little blocking a Russian attack, particularly if the Russians treated them as allies and were just passing through to Austria on Hungary’s western border.

 

While it's true Hungary isn't a military force to be reckoned with, but even with the dissatisfaction they're receiving from the EU, and NATO, if Russia attacked Hungary the rest of Europe would have to step in to stop it.  They'd have no choice, and as stupid and arrogant as Putin is, he knows that and he knows he no longer has the military wherewithal to even attempt such an action, including a nuclear option because now he would be facing an enemy with that same option.  

 

That brings us to the economic consequences. 

 

It's been reported Russia's economy is growing, but it's also being claimed by others much of that growth is military related, at least 30%.  That's not economic growth.  Just as WWII didn't end the Great Depression, it merely gave America full employment.  

The fact is Putin's spending is unsustainable, and as one writer noted, Russia is facing economic issues he can't control if he continues in his present course of action.  He's having to finance his war with Ukraine, he has to maintain living standards for the Russian civilian population, and that means spending money he doesn't have, his public health programs are now underfunded, the military manufacturing mandates are causing shortages of tools and equipment, and social spending has dropped dramatically, and he's running for re-election.  In America the left violates the rule of law by trying to remove a candidate from the ballots.  In Russia Putin is the rule of law and has taken his rival off the ballot by putting him in jail.  He clearly has concerns. 

 

I can see the potential dilemma though, and it's possible.  But Putin's still attempting to play a larger international game with the Middle East, Asia, and Africa, all unsustainable.  He doesn't have the resources for any of this, and after the dust settles we'll find they've all been taking advantage of his stupidity, especially China.

 

If he wins in Ukraine, it will because the Ukraine government and military are so corrupt all support will end, and truth be told, after recent exposures of how tens of millions have been stolen and American military equipment is being sold for pennies on the dollar by the military to Islamic terrorists, We now know the amount of corruption has been massive.  I think that might come to an end soon, and the only hope Ukraine has for survival is to settle for less, a lot less.

 

Also, if he does totally defeat Ukraine and take over the country, which I don't think will happen, he then owns a nation he's destroyed and can't afford to rebuild, and a potential underground he can't control any more than the Nazi's could control the Polish underground, and when it's over, Russia will be broke.