In any presidential election, certain states can be relied upon regardless of the amount of time and treasure spent by the hopeful contender. Think California for Democrats, which hasn’t chosen a Republican for the White House since George H.W. Bush in 1988. During election season, these can be relegated to the “safe” column, and precious resources are expended elsewhere, specifically in the all-important swing states where party loyalty remains a myth and voters demand more bang for their ballot buck.
In these unique enclaves a future president is born, and it is here that Joe Biden is lagging far behind a resurgent Donald Trump.
Forget National Polling
Donald Trump (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
The latest RealClearPolitics polling average for a general election between Trump and Biden hands the former president a 1.1% advantage. No great shakes, one might say, but it is, in fact, a marked trend away from the current White House occupant. Back in August 2023, poll after poll favored Biden; Trump was down four points in hypothetical matchups. And then came the war in Israel, creating a situation where voters began to see the world burn on two fronts under the president’s “adults are back in charge” style of leadership.
Liberty Nation Senior Political Analyst Tim Donner asked about the Israel-Hamas conflict back in November: “Is this war to Biden what the pandemic was to Trump, his damned-if-you-do-or-don’t moment in which he will infuriate many and satisfy few?” Polling seems to bear out that idea. Still, Trump is only one point ahead nationally. Surely that can’t be a confident predictor?
Looking at the Swing States
National polls pull participants equally from states based on their population; in effect, they seek the answer to who wins the popular vote. As Hillary Clinton found to her consternation in 2016, as did Al Gore in 2000, the popular vote doesn’t always equal the keys to the White House.
There are a number of states that go either red or blue. The notorious Blue Wall* is a collection of states that, since Bill Clinton’s 1992 success, have been reliably Democrat. Notably, Trump managed to “swing” three of these in 2016 — Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — and then lost them to Biden in 2020 by just 3%, 1.2%, and 0.6%, respectively. Swing states truly are the delicate keys to the kingdom.
From the seven major swing states, a total of 93 Electoral College votes are up for grabs: Arizona, 11; Georgia, 16; Michigan, 15; Nevada, 6; North Carolina, 16; Pennsylvania, 19; and Wisconsin, 10. These are all in play for the 2024 election. Here are the aggregated poll numbers:
- Arizona – Trump +4.8%
- Georgia – Trump +6.6%
- Michigan – Trump +5.3%
- Nevada – Trump +5.4%
- North Carolina – Trump +9%
- Pennsylvania – Trump +0.3%
- Wisconsin – Tie
According to the average of polls, Trump leads in six of the seven swing states and ties Biden in the seventh. And while the nation is still roughly ten months away from hitting the polls, Democrats are rightly worried that this shift to Trump is a trend rather than a blip.
What, Me Worry?
The problem for Biden and his team is that they have little to campaign on. In 2020, they successfully painted Trump as someone who failed when the coronavirus came to town. “Anyone who’s responsible for that many deaths should not remain as president of the United States of America,” insisted Biden during the final presidential debate of 2020 when the death toll was reported as 220,000. Today, that number is over one million, according to the CDC.
Consider the state of the economy with a cumulative inflation rate of around 18% since Biden took office and a border crisis so bad that even New York City is balking at its own sanctuary status. And let’s not forget two hideous wars raging where, under Trump, there were none. Are all of these Biden’s fault? Maybe not entirely, but that’s what he has to try to sell the voters come November. With an approval rating of just 33% according to the latest ABC/Ipsos polling, it seems the public might not be in a buying mood.
* California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin, and the District of Columbia.
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