The World as I See It: Russia and the Unending "Arc of Instability"

By Rich Kozlovich 

I originally posted this piece on  Saturday, May 8, 2021, which I think was well thought out and if I may be so bold, prescient.  Events have taken place that require an update, so I decided to do it again.   Turkey, and Nagorno-Karabakh, who no one heard of before, are now players in Putin's insanity, which really defines the word irony.

Turkish diplomatic activity. During a phone call over the weekend, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the war in Ukraine, regional issues and bilateral relations. Elsewhere, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov agreed to visit Turkey with a military delegation on June 8 to explore the creation of a security corridor for agriculture exports. Later, Erdogan spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss food security and security cooperation and said he was ready to mediate any potential negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.

Nagorno-Karabakh in the Shadow of Ukraine

What Russia's War Means for Armenia and Azerbaijan

By Thomas de Waal

Mr. Ridvan Bari Urcosta, of Geopolitical Futures posted this piece, The Arc of Instability in Eastern Europe, which I thought was an excellent analysis.  A subscription to Geopolitical futures is required, and I highly recommend it, but I'm going to cover the highlights along with my take on the parties and issues involved.

I liked his highlighting the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, which isn’t being presented in the news much, if at all, and could become a flash point.  I especially liked his highlighting the Kievan Rus history.  That is, in my opinion, an important piece of history that needs to be understood when dealing with Russia, Eastern Europe, the barrier nations and Turkey.

I will say this.  The West is incapable of resolving the issues surrounding the barrier countries of Russia, and those of what was the Soviet Union.  The social paradigms for the west and these nations are just too different and too far away.

The natural social paradigms - both positive and negative - make Russia and Turkey the natural arbiters there - as much as I hate to admit it.

Furthermore, I keep asking what benefit does America, or the West for that matter, gain from interfering in these countries’ internal problems, which are historically unending?  Not only do we not have the expertise to fix it, neither does anyone else, including themselves, and those efforts are expensive.  Let Russia, Turkey and the countries involved pay to fix it.  If they can!  And understand this. Border disputes are now cropping up constantly in what was once part of the Soviet Union. 

When they became independent, they became aware of their needs, wants, and cultural differences, which were not permitted under the rule of the Soviets.  Now those divisions are highlighted among states like Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and that kind of problem is pandemic throughout central Asia, and has always been a problem as long as there was no overriding ruling power. 

The West, that being especially the Western European nations, are leaky vessels as allies, even when doing something is in their own benefit.  They’re disjointed in their thinking and goals, and that’s been the historical paradigm for Europe forever.  Including Western kings helping and supporting the Ottoman Empire attacking Christian kingdoms in Europe when they thought it was to their benefit. 

Here's my take on these events.  Both Russia and Turkey are broke, neither have truly effective militaries, especially Russia, whose demographic pyramid is all out of whack and the 15 to 50 demographic is filled with alcoholics, drug users, victims of AIDS and drug resistant TB.

Neither are natural capital generators, and even if these barrier countries collapse into tyrannies, why does that matter to the United States?  Either economically, militarily or socially?

It's not our job to fix the world.  Jews have a term for it: Tikkun Olam:

"A Jewish concept defined by acts of kindness performed to perfect or repair the world. The phrase is found in the Mishnah, a body of classical rabbinic teachings. It is often used when discussing issues of social policy, ensuring a safeguard to those who may be at a disadvantage."

Well, we've tried that and it fails over the long run due to three things.  Geography, demography, and economics.  

We’re too far away, we’re mostly confused about the issues all these various populations have, as a result we don't have the answers to their problems, and finally, we don’t have the money.  If we did understand the social complexities, and if we did have the money, it wouldn’t matter as all these endeavors are Lewis Carroll rabbit holes that can never be fixed or filled, and all that's presented here is applicable to Afghanistan and the western and American military units leaving, which I will address in another piece. 

History is the foundation of truth, because truth has a historical foundation and context, and everything we're told should have some resemblance to what we see going on in reality.  If what's presented to us fails in either of those categories - it's wrong.  And we need to start understanding that.