The World as I See It: The world is Closing in on Putin

By Rich Kozlovich

This whole thing is a mixed bag.   On one hand it appears Putin is isolating himself more and more, potentially losing power and control.  On the other hand, it's now being claimed Putin is all the more powerful and has continued with an unending crackdown of any opposition. No objections, no contrary advice, no resistance of any kind will be tolerated.  This effort to crush "defeatist" talk is enlightening.  It means, at least to me, Putin's confidence in the out come of this war is at best shaky.

While it's being claimed Russia has found way to shore up it's economy, in my opinion, I think that's a shaky claim at best also, since they didn't have much of an economy to speak of before this.  Especially when considering it was Biden's energy plan that boosted the price of gas and oil that gave him sufficient cash to launch this foolhardy attack.  Putin couldn't even fund his retirement obligations before this, and it's gotten far worse.  What will tighter sanctions do to his fragile filigree economy?  

It's been claimed in the past Putin has stored billions away.  If that's true, it means to me that's his own personal slush fund if he has to escape.  If it isn't true, that means there's no reserve for him or Russia that can carry them, but he still has a life line with energy trade still being conducted with China and Europe, though Poland say it's not going to take in Russian energy starting soon, I think it will be next month. Will that trend continue?  Yes, but by how much?  Western Europe has now come to realize they're capable to being totally crippled by Russian energy, and must make changes for their own survival

One thing I've thought from the beginning of this is his "need" to attack Ukraine because he feared NATO expansion was really going to backfire on him, even if he took Ukraine overnight.  He scared the beejeebers out of everyone.  This attack was totally irrational.  No one, inducing me, ever believed he would be so foolhardy.  Now, no one is sure what irrational thing he'll do.  And I include his military leadership, because I think they're dismayed, and being blamed for his incompetence, arrogance and intransigence.  Is there a Claus von Stauffenberg in their ranks? We'll see!

Finland, who wasn't all that hot in joining NATO because they didn't want to provoke Russia is now seriously considering doing so.  Why now?   Because he's scared all of them and clearly becoming more and more irrational since he now can't back down and I don't think he can win this war, and I think he knows it.  

Update 4/10/22 10:54 AM:  Major move: Finland and Sweden to join NATO?

He's also shown the world his military, with the exception of his nuclear arsenal, is nothing but a big show.  All hat and no cattle.  I believed the only reason for the U.S. to remain in NATO was to prevent Russia from launching an attack down the North European Plan right down into France.  It's clear now there's no way he could launch an attack into Europe over the North European plain and succeed, or even get past Poland.  Even against Europe's limited forces.  It's now clear they can stop Putin even if the United States picks up and goes home.

Will this provoke a showdown with the west?  Before this I would have said no, but Putin has been completely irrational, so here's what I think.  

It might not matter what NATO decides.  If NATO refuses membership for any of these Eastern European nations, they could decide to form their own defense league, even if they're already a member of NATO.  Ukraine, Finland, Sweden, the Baltic States, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Greece, Turkey, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, etc, could join to make Putin sit up and be aware he's not gong to fulfill his dreams of irredentism.  Even Kazakhstan has expressed concern over it's territorial integrity as a result of what being called Putin's insatiability, but they have a problem that's not easily fixed.  90% of it's natural gas passes through Russia. 

But now the isolation is going to getting bigger.  Russia is submitting legislation that:

 "will impose penalties of up to 10 years in prison for the implementation or enforcement of Western sanctions in Russia.....The bill is ostensibly intended to stop Russian companies from avoiding business with Russian companies already under sanctions. Russian companies that are involved in international activities or involved in bringing in Western technologies -- for example, for the development of infrastructure and other high-tech facilities -- will likely be forced to cease operations. Though how the bill would affect the operations of multinational companies operating in Russia that observe sanctions remains unclear, companies -- including Western ones looking to comply with sanctions -- could come under sanctions themselves or see their local employees prosecuted."

I view this is a Russian Smoot Hawley Tariff Bill of 1930 that was meant to force Americans to only buy American products.  This bill was a disaster, and would eventually be a foundational issue that created the Great Depression. Smoot Hawley triggered a worldwide trade war that sent unemployment up from 8% to 15%, further deepening a medium sized recession into the beginnings of the Great Depression. I have no doubt this will further isolate Russia from the real world of international trade.  He's broke, and going more broke every day, and his actions will destroy what's left of  Russia's economy.  

My question?  When do the anti-Putin riots start?  

As a side bar.  I'm all of a sudden I'm getting a lot of hits on P&D from Russia. It appears to me the Russian people have begun to understand what a disaster this is and that Putin is responsible.