By Rich Kozlovich
Make no mistake, the longer this goes on the worse it will be for Russia. While Russia is in control of a substantial part of Ukraine, it was in areas they already were pretty much in control of. As they advanced they've now kicked out the legitimate local governments and replaced them with their own stooges creating a Vichy Ukraine as their policy of occupation.
They continue to reposition their troops claiming it's an effort to encircle and destroy Ukrainian forces in these areas such as the Donbas region, but one has to wonder at all their claims about troops since it's now clear Putin's scrounging for manpower, inducting Central Asian immigrants who became Russian citizens and offering citizenship and financial incentives for any who are not citizens who will join the fight, and many are accepting this. Which is being exploited by Russian criminals fleecing these immigrants of the little money they have. Other's are fleeing Russia. What could possibly go wrong? Well, here's what can go wrong. Some of these nations have warned their citizens living in Russia if they participate they may face criminal charges or not even be allowed to return to their nations.
That's not a sign of confidence in victory and it appears this need for non-Russian manpower will have to expand, especially since there appears to be an issue with ethnic Russians not willing to serve. Russian demographics are not on Putin's side. Furthermore, if the manpower he used originally was the best he had, and it was poorly trained and equipped, how good will these new conscripts be? And there will be no new and improved equipment. He's broke.
They also continue to destroy Ukraine's industrial infrastructure. If they win what good will it do them since they don't have the economic wherewithal to rebuild it?
Shipping in 2021 through the Bosporus Strait amounted to 38,500 ships. It turns out The Black Sea now has mines that have broken away from their moors and are just wandering around out there creating a problem for commercial shipping. The Turkish navy destroyed three, and now these shipping companies are having difficulty getting insurance for their vessels, furthering Russia's isolation from real world economics.
This becomes doubly difficult for Russia as now since, surprisingly, or perhaps not so surprising since Putin's scared everyone on or near his borders, there's a new embrace between Turkey, the natural enemy of Russia for hundreds of years, and the United States. The goal of these two NATO allies is to help bring an end to this war, and the cold war fear Putin has generated all over Eurasia, which has created serious economic issues for the border nations.
Turkey has aided Ukraine with arms, blocked Russian military vessels from the Turkish Straits, yet continues to do business with Russia, so let's not be delusional. It's amazing what self interest can do for a tyrants perception of reality. They're all afraid, but they will do what's in their own best interests.
The world is closing in on Putin.
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