There is a hoary [if you pardon the pun] tradition among the mainline media to always give the Chinese Communists the benefit of the doubt, so to speak. It goes back to the World War II days in the Nationalist refugee capital of Chungking when Gen. George Mashall tried for two years to foist a coalition government with the Communists on Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek, ostensibly to fight the Japanese more efficiently. And the accompanying press mob was telling us that the Chinese Communists weren't Stalinists, just "agrarian radicals." Three-quarters of a century and more than 50 million man-made Chinese victims later, something like that is still going on today.
All evidence points to a Chinese crack up or an explosion of violence against its neighbors and the U.S. – or both. According to Fox News: “The Chinese military has deployed an advanced surface-to-air missile system to one of its contested islands in the South China Sea according to civilian satellite imagery exclusively obtained by Fox News, more evidence that China is increasingly “militarizing” its islands in the South China Sea and ramping up tensions in the region.“
But the distinguished “Old China Hand”, Keith Bradsher, the Hong Kong bureau chief of The New York Times, is still having a hard time with it. After recounting some of the current China economic horrors, he says “That makes it difficult to discern the underlying health of the economy…” Yeah! Difficult!
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My Take - China's history is long and complicated - and the Chinese study it! So do those who wish to understand what the Chinese are doing or will do. We absolutely know what the Chinese will do - the problem is - when will they do it and with whom? That's the fly in the ointment. The Chinese have used "example" wars like the did with India in the 1960's to teach everyone a "lesson".
Currently China is going broke - actually they've been broke but it's now coming to a head because China's "miracle" economy has been based on exports. The EU is collapsing, the Middle East is an absolute mess, they've very little market in South America or Africa. The U.S. is about to experience another recession within a recession, all of which will have a terrible impact on their economy. So what's a tyrannical government to do to placate a population that hates them and considers the government to be illegitimate? Start a war!
Japan is in my opinion an obvious target, although Taiwan seems the least hazardous option as long as Obama is president. Sabre rattling will be a regular foreign policy of China for some time, including threatening the world with ICBM's. ICBM's they're fitting with multiple warheads they would have never been able to produce if it weren't for the Clinton administration. But the definition of inevitability is when reality reaches it's zenith, and China is just about there. China is going to collapse externally and internally within ten years and probably closer to five and their brand spanking new aircraft carriers will be worthless right along with their ICBMs. The question is – what will take it's place and who will control their military hardware?
And one more thing - communists do not reform. To do so is to be thrown out and these guys will do anything to keep their power. I've been following this for some time. You may wish to peruse my China series.
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