All geopolitics is dominated by three factors: Geographics, demographics, and economics
By Rich Kozlovich
Some of the quotes will be from subscription sites such as Geopolitical Futures, Foreign Affairs, so I won't be able to link those articles, but I also subscribe to free sites such as the Jamestown Foundation, so I can link those. As for the others, and you will have to take my word for it ...or not..... as it pleases you.
We keep hearing there will be no American troops on the ground in this Russo/Ukrainian war, yet, there are those who are already advocating sending American military advisers to be "on the ground" claiming that will help Ukraine but not create a risk for escalation. Remarkable. I'm 77, and I sort of remember that's how America got started in Vietnam.
It appears western nations have been doing a lot of training of Ukraine's military:
Western advisers have trained more than 63,000 Ukrainian soldiers in 17 new combat brigades. Instructors have taught individual tactics, small unit drills, collective techniques, and specialized equipment and leadership skills. To some policymakers, it is hard to imagine what else the West could offer.
And now it appears there are plans to create a joint effort between Washington and Kiev to start manufacturing arms right in Ukraine, and the vultures are swarming:
Biden Names Obama Crony Penny Pritzker to Lead Ukraine’s Economic Recovery Direct Link to Joe’s Burisma Scandal National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced Thursday that President Joe Biden would name Penny Pritzker, a billionaire heiress and former commerce secretary, to manage Ukraine’s economic recovery from the ongoing war. Sullivan, a major proponent of the “Russia collusion” hoax Joel B. Pollak
Then we have the masters of disaster, the Clintons, who just can't wait to rebuild Ukraine, all because they're such huge humanitarians of course.... The Clintons Are Masters of ‘Disaster Capitalism’ — and Ukraine Is Their Next Big Project
One of the questions I've asked is when this is over, and at some point it will be over, who will be responsible for rebuilding Ukraine? Guess who? Biden is planning to spend tens of millions to make sure Ukraine has clear water. How did that become America's responsibility?
One writer thinks companies' who benefited from Russian oil sales should be responsible for Ukraine's reconstruction. Why? They didn't invade Ukraine. They didn't create the conditions where they profited from decreased pricing of Russian oil, all of which so many nations wanted. So, how did that become their responsibility? What moral foundation justifies that except this unending insanity for the re-distribution of wealth, especially for a stunningly corrupt Ukraine government.
There are a few themes that keep playing out in this war, and one of them is Russia's military advance has been largely halted, and Ukraine's advances are have been minimal and expensive. Both countries are running out of people, and Russia is hesitant to start a massive level of conscription. Not to mention those they have conscripted are still badly trained, and badly motivated.
Zelenskyy keeps insisting he needs more money, more equipment, more advanced arms, and to overcome all the talk about the corruption and all the
unaccounted millions he's received, he's fired a bunch of government
officials....see....now....all better, now we can be still be friends! So, give me more money and be willing to keep this up forever, or at least until all the territory Russia has taken is returned. Until then he will refuse to negotiate a treaty, or a cease fire, until his demands are met. That's not going to happen, and western nations are wanting to see this come to an end, irrespective of Zelenskyy's stated views. It's my view in the background Zelenskyy's theme is wearing thin with western leaders.
One of the questions that needs asking, and answered, is why do they need all this equipment and training? Didn't they notice how Russia has been annexing their territory over the last decade? If that's true, and it is, why didn't they prepare for all this on their own? That's an easy question to answer. The Ukrainian government is stunningly corrupt, and you can't line your pockets, and the pockets of the Biden Crime Family if you're spending money on military needs.
Another theme is just how much power does Putin still hold over Russian officials, and military planning. The Prigozhin "revolution that didn't happen" was telling is many ways. First, it's clear his mercenary Wagner Group was far superior to the regular Russian army, and their generals, of which he was very openly critical. They didn't like that, and it appears Putin was going to force him and his group to be under direct control of these incompetents. He didn't like that and I have to assume he somehow believed he had support within the military for his "coup". He didn't. And now he's dead, a new leader has been appointed, and the Wagner Group is under control of the Russian military.
It's now clear, Putin is more powerful than he was before, the wealthy, greedy, and corrupt kleptocracy that controls Russia will march lock step with Putin, no matter the costs..... Or else! They've gotten the message, after all, this is Russia. But Russia has some serious economic issues that fall right at the feet of Putin.
The Economic Cost of Russian Statism by Dan Mitchell discusses Putin’s economic mismanagement. Russia isn't a natural capital generating nation. He started out with almost no national debt and that's changing, and now he's at the economic mercy of other nations, especially China, and he's actually having to buy military equipment from......of all places.....North Korea, which belies the claim he's doubled his arms production, especially since North Korean arms are substandard.
What kind of message is that to the rest of the world? It certainly isn't one of confidence in Putin or Russia.
Needless to say, none of this obviates Putin's problems.
Internationally, he's been humiliated, he's now become the weak sister in the Russian/China alliance, along with Turkey, Iran, and the entire central Asian former Soviet Union republics, and he's now facing an arch of instability from the Caucasus to China, who borders some of these Central Asian nations, where Putin is trying to gain recruits since ethnic Russians aren't all that crazy about going to fight in Ukraine, and they're forming better economic and cultural relations than they have with Russia, whose military they no longer fear to the same degree as before. All of which is interesting considering how China is butchering their Muslim population.
Another theme that's playing out, and is pretty much European history, is the fact these countries are invariably self serving, and at best are leaky vessels as allies. Hungarian Farmers Protest Against EU Decision to Allow Ukrainian Grain Imports, supposedly because Ukraine uses "banned toxic" pesticides, which is interesting as no one seemed to have noticed that before, and it's also interesting the EU is fond of banning all sort of safe and effective chemistry, so that's all a red herring. It's really all about the money!!!
Also, it turns out the Poles, who are getting fed up with funding Ukraine's military, feel if there's to be an expansion to the U.N. Security Council, Germany should not be a part of that since they've never fully accounted for their war crimes of WWII. Anyone who believes there's harmony within NATO is living on another planet, and time isn't on Ukraine's side, but one really big unintended consequences of Putin's actions was, he really did scare the NATO nations, and ultimately caused it's expansion.
Before this NATO without America couldn't have beaten a herd of stampeding cattle, but now, they're feeling threatened, and now NATO has expanded with Northern tier nations, which Russia didn't have to deal with before this, and they're spending a lot of money on defense. Putin's plans, or it should be said his lack of intelligent planning, has backfired massively. But that's what happens when a leader's paranoia seals him in a echo chamber of head nodding yes men, flunkies and sycophants, and it appears he's even become more paranoid and more secluded, but he believes time is on his side, and he may just be right, and the only question that remains is how little is he willing to settle for.
The real threat to the world is China
Again, geographics, demographics, and economics play hugely in virtually everything China is doing. Let's start with economics.
Strartfor is a paid for geopolitical site to which I scribe, and they ran a three part serious on China's economics. They outline how China took a turn away from Maoist economics to something that had a semblance of working, and grew rapidly for forty years stating:
China's economic rise over the past four decades has been nothing short of remarkable. With economic growth averaging nearly 10% annually since 1980, Chinese policymakers have proved adaptable and effective, in part due to China's state-capitalist economic system. This system offers a closed capital account, extensive state ownership and a prominent — even dominant — government position in the economy. As a result, policymakers can intervene forcefully and quickly to safeguard financial stability and maintain high economic growth.
But under Xi all that's changed, and he's a true economic Maoist:
"China appears to be on the verge of sliding into deflation, and recent defaults of major real estate developers have raised concerns about financial stability.......One major problem Chinese policymakers are trying to solve is the issue of over investment in unproductive sectors."
The articles
go on to explain what actions China must take of avoid more serious
downturns in their economy, and these are valid solutions. None of
which
are going to happen. China's not a natural capital generating nation
because its being run by anti-capitalists, who don't have a clue how
capitalism works. Communists are thugs. They're treat everything like
it's a nail, and when everything is a nail the solution is a hammer.
And now the Chinese population is feeling the consequences of the stupid
central planning from the CCP, who they consider illegitimate to a large
degree, which is why China is now demanding everyone speak Mandarin in
an attempt to create a homogenous society. And China is a nation with a
demographic problem. After murdering untold numbers of babies, they
don't have enough workers.
Will an economic downturn cause them to produce cheaper products undermining the other nation's of the world's economies? I don't think so because they're going to have to pay their shrinking working population better. But China is way overextended in a lot of areas.
Mark Lewis in this article, The Real China-II: The Utterly Arbitrary Left notes:
Let me tell you some more stories about China, the country the Democrats want America to mimic...........China has had a master-slave society forever, but it’s been exacerbated under Marxism. Anything goes, anything to survive, no morality. Mao Zedong had none, neither does Xi Jinping or any other government official. The people learn well, though as I have said, not all Chinese are lying, thieving scum. Just most of the bosses and all the government officials. And lots of the common people are following suit now, too..........
Here's a perfect example of how corrupt and immoral the CCP really is, China Threatens Taiwan, Insists Human Rights Are Relative in U.N. Address saying:
Chinese Vice President Han Zheng promised the United Nations General Assembly during his address on Thursday afternoon that his Communist Party would never practice “hegemony and expansion” and promote dialogue and peace – before threatening the nation of Taiwan with the “firm resolve, strong will, and the power of the Chinese people.”
Han asserted that Taiwan, a sovereign country that has never been governed by a state based in Beijing, had been part of China since “ancient times,” and warned that “no one should ever underestimate” how far Xi Jinping’s genocidal regime would go to realize “complete reunification.” He also vowed that his country would always promote “peace, development, equity, justice, democracy, and freedom.”
Talk about 1984 and George Orwell's Doublespeak!
Mark Lewis went on to say:
The average recent college graduate I have talked to is struggling to get a job, and when they do, they are paid a little over $1,000 per month (before taxes)—with, of course, no overtime pay. They can only find employment in big cities where housing costs are exorbitant..............
It’s worse, far worse, in the countryside. Li Keqiang, who served as Premier of China from 2013 until his recent retirement, was honest enough to admit (in other words, he was talking to his own people and it accidentally leaked out) that 600,000,000 people living in Chinese rural areas subsist on about $140 per month. That wouldn’t rent an apartment in a major city. Only about one in three can attend high school, and (I’ve heard) some students must carry their own desks to school with them. That’s almost half the people living in poverty.
This is the nation the World Economic Forum think is the perfect example for world governance, along with the Democrats and the Biden Administration, yet Xi is a central planner, and time after time, nation after nation central planning has failed. This article, Xi’s Personnel Mismanagement By
Growing doubts about Xi’s ability to handle the military overlaps with and exacerbates concerns that have increased this year over China’s control of the economy and other aspects of the polity. The enthusiasm of multinationals in investing in China, already cooling, could weaken further still. According to Fitch Securities, foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first seven months of 2023 declined by 9.8 percent compared to the same period last year. Moreover, direct investment liabilities, another gauge of FDI in China, slumped to just $4.9 billion in the second quarter of 2023, according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. This was down 87 percent from the same period last year and was the smallest amount in any quarter since 1998 (Fitchratings.com, August 30; Bloomberg, August 7). The supreme leader’s less-than-satisfactory performance could have knock-on effects, hurting the confidence of ordinary Chinese, whose desire to spend, especially on apartments and other big-ticket items, is already low.
Odd Arne Wested (apparently that's his real name) posted an article in Foreign Affairs on June 13th saying:The main reason for this is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is more authoritarian and less open than it has been at any point since Mao Zedong was in charge. People close to power are more fearful, and access to information is less widespread, even within the higher echelons of the regime. ....Xi has spent his time in office attempting to destroy all internal bases of power except his own......... He wants to centralize authority around the leadership of the CCP and wipe out party factions,..............
The image of “Xi Dada” (roughly meaning “big daddy Xi”) as a people’s emperor who punished corruption and humbled haughty business leaders was a genuinely popular one, at least for a while. It was not until Xi grossly overreacted to the COVID-19 pandemic that the public began to ask tougher questions about his intentions. By then, however, it was much too late; Xi had consolidated his power within the CCP, and the party had extended its reach into society more deeply than at any point since the Mao era. Repression and surveillance are now everywhere..........
Xi’s style of decision-making is one of the consequences of this failure of imagination ........... There is little doubt that Xi uses the extended national concept, just as he has used his anticorruption campaign, to control what other party leaders say and do .........Xi’s own biggest fear must be that he is chairing his country’s emerging decline.
Is Xi in trouble? He is according to James E. Fanell and Bradley A. Thayer in this article, Xi’s Leadership Is in Crisis; Now Is the Time to Act,
but in my opinion, there are serious flaws in their approach to this.
First, China isn't going to attack Taiwan. The downside consequences
are too great. Secondly, while accurately claiming the Chinese think the
CCP is a illegitimate government, and their communist ideology is a
bankrupt one, the miss them mark when they claim they're "divorced from
the traditional
Chinese governing principles". The fact is central planning and tyranny
has always been foundational in China's culture. If you call the
tyrant an emperor, or a President, does it really matter? Calling
communism an imported ideology is a red herring, after all, does the
source of that tyranny really matter?
They are correct in
noting, that "Xi’s paranoia will lead to an ever broadening of purges,
thus placing him more and more at odds with the communist bureaucracy",
but I think the CCP is still a way from overthrow, and the only "act"
that can be used against Xi and China by the U.S. is ending all trade
with them. Then, and only then, will we see an open rebellion to Xi's
rule.
As for their Belt and Road Initiatives, that become expensive and is in my opinion, an economic bust for Xi. These countries were broke, and in no way could they be able to pay China back, or even the interest. So, what's China to do? Sure, they pressured some to allow them to build bases, but where's the economic return on that? If these countries just flat out default, what's China going to do, attack? Not going to happen. The EU nations are scrambling to become best buddies with China for economic reasons, but that's delusional.
That's my take for this week. Believe it or not.
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