By Daniel Greenfield September 26, 2023 @ Sultan Knish Blog
50
years ago, Israel came as close as it ever did to losing a war. While
the Arab Islamic nations can repeatedly lose wars without paying much of
a price, Israel can only lose one major war.
That Israel
survived the grim days of that October when the sirens sounded, the
radios blared unit names and young men rushed from synagogues to cars
and then tanks and planes on the holiest day in the Jewish calendar, had
little to do with the nation’s government.
The
leftists who had ruled the country without interruption until that war
(and whose rule would falter a few years later and almost entirely
disappear after its disastrous deal with the PLO) had failed badly.
Golda Meir and Moshe Dayan, the subjects of enduring personality cults,
had brought the country to the brink of destruction. It was not the
political or military leaders who salvaged the situation, but young men
fighting desperately and heroically in impossible battles.
The
Yom Kippur War was not the first time that Israel was outnumbered or
overwhelmed by vastly superior numbers of enemy soldiers and tanks, but
it was the first time that the men in the field felt like they had been
left on their own by generals and politicians and had no plan to win the
war. And so they fought all the more desperately knowing that there
would be nothing else.
On the hill of Tel Saki,
60 paratroopers and 45 tanks held off 11,000 Syrian soldiers and 900
tanks. On Petroleum Road, a 21-year-old Lieutenant Tzvika Greengold
hitchhiked to a base, took command of two damaged tanks and managed to
hold off hundreds of enemy tanks and destroyed at least twenty of them.
Heroism held the line and turned the tide, but it did little to excuse
the disastrous failures that nearly ended the lives of millions and the
State of Israel.
Before the Yom Kippur War, Israel had received
multiple warnings that an attack was imminent. King Hussein of Jordan
had personally flown in to warn Golda that war was coming.
“If we strike first we won’t get help from anybody,” Golda Meir had argued.
Had
Israel struck first, it might have been able to neutralize the enemy
and not only save thousands of slain soldiers, but the millions that
would have been killed had Israel lost.
But Israel would not act
without the approval of the Nixon administration. Golda assured
Secretary of State Henry Kissinger that they would not strike first, and
Kissinger assured the Russians that the Israelis wouldn’t strike first,
and the Russians assured the Egyptians and the Syrians, who were
preparing to strike first, that they had nothing to worry about.
“We’re in a political situation in which we can’t do what we did in ’67,” Defense Minister Moshe Dayan had replied to those urging him to hit the Egyptians and the Syrians first.
Despite
multiple warnings, the country was not ready for war. Its disposition
of forces, military doctrines and general readiness were badly out of
date. The country’s political and military leaders had forgotten that
they had only won through daring attacks and had come to rely on
defensive positions like the Purple Line defenses in the Golan Heights
or the disastrous Bar Lev Line on the Egyptian border that were
structurally and conceptually flawed, and failed badly.
Israel’s
old military leaders had come to rely too much on the old heroics of
tanks, planes and paratroopers that had performed brilliantly in the Six
Day War and had never gotten comfortable with missiles, anti-tank and
anti-aircraft weapons. The Egyptians had badly fumbled the use of such
Soviet weapons in ‘67, and the veterans of that war failed to respect
their potential. The devastating impact of Soviet anti-aircraft fire and
anti-tank missiles was an expensive education.
But the deepest
failure was that Golda Meir allowed Secretary of State Henry Kissinger
to cripple any possible Israeli response. The architect of a disastrous
foreign policy that is responsible for many of America’s problems today
had wanted Israel to lose a war.
Kissinger had told Egypt’s
national security adviser in the spring of the year that, “if you want
us to intervene with Israel, you’ll have to create a crisis. We only
deal in crisis management. You’ll have to ‘spill some blood.’”
As
Kissinger later told Ford, “we didn’t expect the October War”. “But
wasn’t it helpful?” Ford suggested. “We couldn’t have done better if we
had set the scenario,” Kissinger replied.
The State Department
got what it wanted. Israel suffered severe military and morale losses,
and was then prevented from benefiting from the fruits of victory when
it turned the tables. Israel was cut down to size and went on the road
to becoming a client state. Egypt was lured away from the Soviet camp in
the first of a series of peace deals to ‘stabilize the region’.
What
looked good on paper was actually a disaster for both America and
Israel. The United States was saddled with propping up and coddling
Egypt’s military dictatorship which can at any moment fall to the Muslim
Brotherhood. (This temporarily happened when Obama promoted his Arab
Spring leading to a scenario where Islamic terrorists gained possession
of high-end U.S. military equipment and a top-ranked regional military.
It will likely happen again) Much the same scenario will play out even
sooner and on a smaller scale in Jordan. A ‘peace’ deal turning over the
Golan to Syria fortunately failed. The PLO deal however created the
worst existential threat to the Jewish State by embedding an expanding
terrorist state inside its territory.
These deals were based on
the idea that Israeli power must be checked to stabilize the region.
Israeli power, rather than being seen as a source of strength for Israel
and America, was stigmatized as a destabilizing force. Stability
required Israeli territorial concessions, no unilateral operations and
an end to everything that had made Israel a force to be reckoned with.
Israeli
governments accepted the idea that the bold strategic moves that seized
the initiative had to be replaced by a balance of terror which slowly
escalates conflicts rather than stopping them (and which assigns blame
to Israel, rather than the growing capabilities of the terrorists and
their allies, for the escalation.)
What has been happening in the
last 50 years is a kind of slow-motion military and diplomatic Yom
Kippur War in which Israel gradually retreats from territories, relying
on defensive positions that can’t hold up and diplomatic agreements that
are worthless in the long run.
Even the Abraham Accords, widely
hailed and hyped, that brought together Israel and some of America’s
smaller Arab oil allies to oppose Iran’s growing power, were once again
based on abandoning domestic moves and initiatives to solidly lay claim
to parts of the Jewish State.
Kissinger used to sneer that,
“Israel has no foreign policy, only a domestic policy.” Now Israel has
no domestic policy, only a foreign policy. It has sacrificed its
interests to a failed regional and nation-building strategy hatched in
Washington D.C. and premised on completely misguided assumptions about
Arabs and Muslims, and how their societies work.
50 years after
the Yom Kippur War, the generals and soldiers who had come out of the
‘kibbutz’ outposts have resentfully been making way for new soldiers who
come from the outposts of the ‘settlements’. Where the Kibbutz was
primarily a socialist experiment, the settlement is primarily a
religious Zionist one. Its families raise 9 children, not in communal
creches, but in homes and around Shabbat tables.
Labor’s twin
failures in the Yom Kippur War and the Oslo Accords with the PLO,
destroyed its credibility. The majority of Israelis that it had been
keeping down, Mizrahi refugees from the Muslim world, religious Jews,
Holocaust survivors, Russian immigrants and settlers, helped put the
conservative Zionist Likud in power and make Prime Minister Netanyahu
the longest serving leader over Ben Gurion. The violent leftist protests
against judicial reform are primarily an attack on a new Israeli
majority that is not beholden to the failed leftist experiments of the
past.
Despite all this, Israel’s military leadership draws on the
same incestuous elite which has yet to be tested in any major military
conflict. If the Yom Kippur War were to play out again, there is little
doubt that most of Israel’s new generation of soldiers would respond
just as heroically, as they have through the smaller scale conflicts
against Islamic terrorists, but the generals remain a question mark.
Unlike the old generals who took the initiative, Israel’s generals, like
America’s generals, are focused on averting wars and avoiding any
escalation of existing conflicts.
American generals obsessed with
avoiding conflict are covering for a state of military unreadiness.
Israeli generals fearful of any conflict may be doing the same thing.
The
Yom Kippur War showed that the ‘safer bet’ of relying on defenses like
the Iron Dome isn’t really safe at all. When your enemies outnumber you
and their ruthlessness is endless, playing defense is not a survival
option. Israel thrived when it attacked brilliantly and unexpectedly.
Under the ‘technological genius’ of defenses like the Iron Dome,
Israelis in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv are back to huddling in bomb shelters
the way that they did during the old wars.
Ever since Israel was
nearly destroyed in the Yom Kippur War because Golda and Dayan had put
all their trust in Kissinger, proposals to take out Iran’s nuclear
program have repeatedly come up against the objections of Washington
D.C. Similarly any effort to seriously deal with Hamas fizzles out in
the same way. Fifty years later, Israel still can’t allow itself to
strike first.
And yet, just as in the Yom Kippur War, the hour
may come when Israeli leaders have to decide whether to strike first
without getting permission from D.C. or face the destruction of their
nation.
Daniel Greenfield is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center. This article previously appeared at the Center's Front Page Magazine. Click here to subscribe to my articles. And click here to support my work with a donation. Thank you for reading.
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