When one country exports five times as many goods as its trading partner, it stands to reason that it will, at least theoretically, be hurt five times as much by a trade war. That is the logic behind President Donald Trump’s tariff regime, amounting to a full-court press on Chinese President Xi Jinping. And while Xi has done a tit-for-tat to date, escalating Chinese tariffs on the United States every time Trump has raised the ante, it may well be just a matter of time until Xi is forced to back down. Otherwise, he could face a recession or a depression in his increasingly rattled nation.

Trump and Xi’s Tit-for-Tat Tariffs

As Trump ratcheted up tariffs on China to a higher level than on any other nation, as much as 145%, Xi has responded with retaliatory levies of 125%. While American consumers will pay a price for this trade standoff in the short run through higher prices and supply shortages, the cost will be relatively moderate compared to the toll it will take on a Chinese economy that, unlike the United States, is heavily dependent on exports.

The Port of Los Angeles, which receives about 40% of imported goods from Asia, reports that such products are down 10% from the same time last year. And that percentage may well increase as the Trump-Xi stare-down continues. This could lead to thinning inventories on shelves for American consumers. But in China, where manufacturing is the key to its export economy, new export orders have fallen to the lowest level since 2022, when the country was still in the throes of the COVID-19 pandemic. Factory activity in China has dropped to its lowest level in two years – this in a country already suffering from a gross excess of empty property.

As The Wall Street Journal put it, “Trump’s eye-watering tariffs on Chinese imports are starting to squeeze the engine room of China’s economy.”

Many, if not most, knowledgeable observers believe that, while Trump is out to restructure tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers across the board, his real target all along has been China. Evidence of this is that Trump has given every other country that pledges to negotiate on tariffs a 90-day pause, but his levies on China remain in place. And it is likely that limiting trade with China will be a central demand in the Trump administration’s negotiations with America’s other trading partners.

Trump’s Long-Standing Mission

None of this should come as a surprise. Long before he became president, in fact for about four decades, Trump railed against the weakness of American leaders in dealing with the Chinese, saying they were ripping us off while Congress and presidents, out of fear or ineptitude, refused to take meaningful steps to level a wildly uneven playing field. As the leader of the Free World for a second time, he is now finally in a position to do something about it. He had already hit China with controversial tariffs in his first term, which worked to a greater degree than critics expected and were kept in place by Joe Biden.

How damaging have these tariffs been to the Xi regime? Gordon Chang, a longtime expert on China and a senior fellow with the Gatestone Institute, said on the Fox Business Channel Monday (April 28) that he believes something is “very, very wrong” in Beijing right now. More specifically, Chang detects what he calls Xi’s “end-of-regime” conduct:

“At a time when China needs friends because it’s not selling goods to the US, it is going out of its way to antagonize not just the Philippines, not just Taiwan, but also South Korea and Australia … this is end-of-regime conduct, because Xi Jinping, he can’t appear to be giving in to the US.”

Xi is well aware that, in the end, his country has considerably more at stake than the United States in the ongoing trade war. But it is also true that in a Communist state with one-party rule, he is far less beholden to his people than Trump is in our constitutional republic with its checks, balances, and biennial elections. While Trump appears intent on staying the course, predicting China will eventually “eat” the tariffs, various Chinese officials are calling the United States a “bully” and saying China “will never kneel down before Washington.” Indeed, this trade war is showing few signs of surrender on either side. But, on the matter of which man will blink first, it is safe to say that Xi Jinping has a lot more to lose than Donald Trump.

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Liberty Nation does not endorse candidates, campaigns, or legislation, and this presentation is no endorsement.

Read More From Tim Donner Senior Political Analyst