What I'm Reading: Europe

By Rich Kozlovich 

You have to wonder what in the world possesses these European “leaders” to hate their nation, their culture, and their people so much?  Whether it's agricultural practices, energy production, taxes, regulations, or immigration Europe is in a downward swirling vortex of destruction.  And worse yet, what in the world possesses the citizens of the UK and the rest of Europe to vote for them?

Well, not only is Europe facing a maelstrom of demographic and social disaster, they’re all headed into the economic toilet of massive debt they can’t repay. When they default their little worlds will come tumbling down, then we’re going to see civil disobedience and violence in Europe unlike anything the world has seen since WWII.

It’s called Stage Six of this historical cycle, and it's all coming home to roost, and it's been my view for years somewhere in the political movements of these nations there's a Hitler or Mussolini style character with the rhetorical charisma to charm the populace into a massive political upset, including violence.  The difference is they're not going to be concerned with conquering the world.  Their focus will be on saving ethnic Europeans and European culture, and it's my view the violence that will ensue will leave Europe devastated turning Europe into a third rate mess.  

Europe is Doomed 

1. Europe is suicidally complacent about the Islamist threat 
2. What Was the European Dream? 
3. Freedom of Speech Dying a Slow Death in Europe 
4. The European Free Speech Crisis 
5. As Europe Becomes Increasingly Militarized, Norway Expands New Arctic Brigade, Strengthening NATO’s Northern Border
6. Can Europe be saved from itself?
7.  How Europe Grows Gas Tax Revenues Gas prices are rising again in Germany. The main culprit is the state with its towering levies. 
8. Will Illegal Immigration Be The Death Of Europe?
9.  Part II: Demographics + Entitlements = Europe’s Doom August 3, 2026 by Dan Mitchel
10. The EU and the Iron Law of Oligarchy The EU is an oligarchy governed by a small self-perpetuating ruling class that sees “the people” as impediments to its technocratic program.
11.  EU Mulls Letting Farm Drones Spray Pesticides Widely

France

Let's not be delusional.  There is no conservative movement in France as we understand conservatism.  Whether it's Canada, France, England, Germany or any other western nation their "conservatives" are more like our RINO's.   

1. Marine Le Pen Vows to ‘Combat Islamist Ideologies,’ Will Fine the Muslim Veiling of Women...
2.  France Going Right? All across Europe, anti-immigration parties are gaining ground. By convention, they are deemed “far right” by the press, regardless of what other policy positions they may hold. In several countries, legal efforts have been made to keep anti-immigration parties off the ballot, lest they win. One of those countries is France, where Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally, was charged along with her party with a crime; namely, using European Union funding for political rather than EU parliamentary duties. Among other penalties, Le Pen was barred from running for office for five years, meaning that she was preventing from running in the 2027 race for President.  But Le Pen’s sentence was reduced on appeal, and she is the National Rally’s presidential candidate. The most recent polling has her with a commanding lead:

Germany 

According to one subscription site:

 "Germany's Merz Under Pressure as AfD Heads for Record Showing in Crucial State Elections With the AfD leading by a wide margin in polls for two upcoming state elections, the parties making up the national government face heavy losses that could paralyze its reform agenda."

And the ruling class doesn't like it and is going to do all it can to prevent them from taking power.  How's that for democracy.  The peasants just don't get it so in some way the ruling elite have to correct their wrong thinking, even if it means being underhanded and corrupt.  After all, since it's done in the name of saving democracy, so that makes it okay.

1.  Bombshell Germany Election Could Mean Left-Right Populist Coalition……Berlin Vows to Use State ‘Instruments’ to ‘Defend’ Against Result Germany’s embattled Chancellor has vowed to use the “instruments” of the security state to “defend” against a potential anti-mass-migration state government after Sunday night’s bombshell election results in Saxony-Anhalt.
2.  40% of Berlin Police Applicants Can’t Speak German
3.  Diversity German Style: Berlin Pool Advertised ‘Black Only’ Swimming Hour
4.  Germany's AfD won a state election in a landslide, sounding an alarm for centrist politics
5.  The Election That Shook Germany's Political Establishment to Its Core 
6.  Europe wrestles with impact of historic regional gains for Germany’s AfD - "Seismic", "a socio-political earthquake", "a watershed moment for Germany".  This was how political analysts and many media outlets described the stunning victory of the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in local elections in Germany on Sunday. Is that an exaggeration?.......

Spain

Leftism is a secular religion, and has their own Kyrie Eleison   When failure eventually strikes the chant starts: 

It's not my fault, it's not my fault, it's not my fault, it's not my fault. Amen! 

Whose fault is it then? It's the Jews, it's Russia, it's Trump, it's the fault of the rest of Europe because they're prejudiced about not wanting more Muslim invaders in their countries.  Image that.  After all,  they don't have nearly enough rapist criminal Muslim immigrants of their own, so they should take Spain's.  Right?  

Considering who the Spanish voted in as their leaders this shouldn't have surprised anyone. Schadenfreude! 

1. Migrants in Ceuta catch an infant dolphin and beat it to death—because it’s fun for them Environmental conservation and third-worldism are diametrically opposed interests.
2. 70,000 in Spain Protest PM Sanchez Invasion Cover-Up Last week, I warned that the Sanchez government in Spain had been lying about managing the Muslim invasion of Ceuta and lying that it was under control. Instead, the Sanchez government is preparing to move thousands of Muslim migrants into mainland Spain.......Spain’s Ministry of Health is sending 45,000 doses of vaccines to deal with the migrant outbreaks including 10,000 polio, chickenpox, and diphtheria-tetanus vaccines and 15,000 MMR vaccines suggesting that the true number may be between 10,000 and 15,000. What the vaccine regime reveals even more than the numbers is the fact that they’re staying........People in occupied Ceuta have been protesting for a while, but now there are massive rallies in Spain against Sanchez’s invasion.
3. Ceuta Was an Invasion [Updated] If a group of people consisting mostly of women and children enter a country, it is a migration. If a group consisting overwhelmingly of young men enter a country, it is an invasion. An explosive new report by Spain’s National Police suggests that what happened a month ago in Ceuta, and still continues, was an invasion organized by the government of Morocco: The National Police has informed Judge María Tardón
4.  Ceuta’s once gorgeous beach is now a gigantic migrant slum… — Revolver
5. Women Flee Ceuta, Spain After 15 Rapes Recorded Since End Of July, 10-Year-Old Sexually Assaulted By 3 Moroccans
6. The Fog is Lifting Italy’s Giorgia Meloni is using the Ceuta disaster to strengthen the national-conservative front within the EU. Returns 
7. Ceuta invasion another step toward a Muslim Europe, And Americans Can Ill Afford To Be Smug 
8. Ceuta Struggles to Protect Migrant Girls as Hordes of Men Abuse Them on the Streets
9. Ceuta's Migration Crisis Spain's Interior Ministry Dismisses Police Warnings of Jihadis Among Ceuta Migrants
10.  Bishop of Ceuta: “Migrants are Missionaries of Hope that Widen Our Hearts”  “Typical African songs and dances filled the cathedral.”
11. ‘Enough’ — Ceuta’s Religious Communities Demand End to Migrant Invasions
12. Top Islamist Theologian Accuses Zionists of Orchestrating Spain’s Migrant Crisis
13.  ‘We Are Spanish, We Are Locked in Our Homes’ — Ceuta 2026: The Manufactured Invasion...
14. Spain’s Socialist Government Allocates €25 Million to Immigrant Minors Who Invaded Ceuta as One in Three Spanish Children Lives at Risk of Poverty
15. The Bizarre Efforts to Blame Morocco Migrant Invasion of Spain on US and Israel 
16. Italy’s Meloni Denounces Spanish ‘Regularizing’ of 500,000 Irregular Migrants
17.  Narrative-Crafting Socialist Spain Pushes ‘International Reactionary Forces’ Conspiracy Theory After Ceuta Invasion…
18. VIDEO: Moroccan Men Hide out in Ceuta’s Woods to Escape Deportation from Spain
19. Is Washington Abandoning Spain? How U.S. Policy, Israel’s Alliance with Morocco, and Pedro Sánchez’s Immigration Agenda Are Reshaping the Western Mediterranean
20. Watch: Spanish Woman’s ‘Suicidal Empathy’ on Full Display as Africans Invade City
21. SPAIN INVASION: Failing Socialist PM Sánchez Jets Out for Holiday as Authorities in Ceuta Are Still Chasing Migrants To Deport and Recovering Dead Bodies From the Sea
22.  Dune’ Star Javier Bardem Blames Israel for the Illegal Migrant Invasion of Spanish Ceuta
23.  Ceuta questions The incident in Spanish Cueta last week is quickly being memory-holed before even basic questions are answered. In the span of less than 24 hours, somewhere between 50,000 and 60,000 “migrants” stormed the border from Morocco into the tiny North African enclave, which itself has a population of only 80,000 or so. And just like that, they were immediately expelled. We were told by “authorities” that the invaders were almost
24.   Ceuta to Defy Illegal Migrant Invasion and Hold Traditional Catholic Celebration
25.  Spanish PM Accuses Europe of Prejudice for Not Wanting to be Invaded by Migrants
26.   How Spain Invited the Invasion

UK

This is coming to a head in the UK and the new Prime Minister may be even worse than Starmer.  The UK is a mess, and the PM position has become a revolving door of failure with five Prime Ministers in the last five years and seven in the last ten years.  

1.  Warning: Britain on Brink of ‘Serious Civil Disturbance’ over Migrant Crisis
2. UK Woman Working to Help Afghan Refugees… Murdered by Afghan Refugee
3. U.K. government condemns anti-immigrant demonstrators at port city

What I'm Reading: France

Life is about patterns and circles. Patterns of behavior, and the social circles prompting that behavior.  France Just Loves Islam!

  By Rich Kozlovich Tags: The World's Nine Orders

France is in deep trouble, and is facing what's being called the "Great Replacement".  Leftist claim it isn't happening,... it's a conspiracy theory.... a racist myth!  They're lying, and these first three articles shows they're lying.   Make no mistake, these Islamists are intent on replacing western civilization with Muslims, abandoning European culture and history in favor of sharia and the values of Islam.   This is immigration jihad:

"Whoever emigrates for the sake of Allah will find much refuge and abundance in the earth, and whoever forsakes his home, a refugee for Allah and his messenger, and death overtakes him, his reward is then obligatory upon Allah. Allah is always forgiving, merciful.” (Qur’an 4:100)

1. French Far-Left Celebrates the Demographic Decline of the Indigenous French
2. Watson Video: A Surreal Walk Around Islamized Paris 

If this is all just a mythological conspiracy theory, then why are they so afraid of dissent?  Why do they feel it necessary to punish anyone who disagrees?  Here's what happens in France when someone exposes the truth about Islam and the fruits of this Muslim invasion.  

1. 'Hunted down': Verdict in for woman exposing Muslim rape invasion as she reveals 'latest absurdity' A woman facing prison for daring to say on French TV that the main danger to women in France comes from black African and Arab immigrant men has been found guilty, but is receiving no jail time despite a fine of 1,000 euros ($1,100).
2. French Sexual Assault Victim Convicted for Saying Black and Arab Immigrant Men Are Main Threat to Women
3. French Ban on Iranian Opposition Rally Reveals the Movement’s Remarkable Capacity to Organize

The consequences of this invasion.... and let's get this right.... this is an invasion...... is rampant disregard for the ethnic French population.   Muslim murder rates are rising rapidly, and this is a pattern all over Europe, with the exception of a couple of Eastern European nations who refuse to allow all this immigration.   

1. “Migrants” Filmed Themselves Beating a 17-Year-Old White Teen to Death 
2. Louis, a beautiful young French boy, lured to a construction site and stomped to death by migrants
3. France in Shock After Five North African Migrants Beat 17-Year-Old Boy to Death
4. France Probes Judicial System Failures After Murder of Schoolgirl French Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin has ordered the nation’s prosecutors to review all 70,000 ongoing complaints of violence by minors.
5. Multicultural French Music Festival Sees Hundreds of Arrests for Stabbings, Sex Assaults, Date Rape Druggings 

No opposition to their globalist lies are tolerated, after all, there's no "Great Replacement", so if that's not happening then there's no need to deport anyone.  

1.  France Identifies The Real Culprits: Peaceful Anti-Iran Protesters  
2.  Macron Rejects Migrant Return Hubs, Claims They Go Against ‘European’ Values

France, Electoral Suicide, and the 22nd Theorem of Government

October 15, 2025 by Dan Mitchell @ International Liberty

 Back in 2011, I shared two cartoons to illustrate why the welfare state might theoretically collapse. Today, I’m going to examine what I fear will be a real-world example. I’ve written a four-part series about France’s dire fiscal status (see here, here, here, and here). Here’s a chart that helps to explain why that nation is in trouble. You get more money when retired than you earn while working!

No wonder France has a bloated public sector and a massive amount of government debt.  But people in France don’t seem to worry about the likelihood of a fiscal crisis. Indeed, they think they should be able to retire even earlier even though lifespans are increasing.

Sadly, politicians are responding to voter greed. Here are some excerpts from an AP report by Samuel Petrequin

 

French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu on Tuesday announced he would suspend a much-debated plan to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64… The Socialist Party, which is not part of the governing coalition, had demanded the law be repealed. Boris Vallaud, president of the Socialist group in the National Assembly, said his colleagues were ready to take a “gamble,” making clear they would not vote the no-confidence motions. 

Vallaud called the suspension a “first step” toward scrapping the law. …France’s deficit hit 5.8% of gross domestic product last year, way above the official EU target of 3%. France is also facing a massive debt crisis. At the end of the first quarter of 2025, France’s public debt stood at 3.346 trillion euros, or 114% of GDP. …Communist party leader Fabien Roussel called the suspension of the pension reform “a first victory.”

The communist leader may view a younger retirement age as “a first victory,” but I’m wondering whether “the final straw” might be more accurate.  Heck, I wonder whether it is a sign that France is fundamentally ungovernable.  The situation is so catastrophic that I’m motivated to add to my collection of Theorems.

Just in case you think I’m being overly pessimistic, let’s look at some passages from a new report in the U.K.-based Economist.

 

Since the foundation of the welfare state its critics have warned that it would be captured and abused by coalitions with political power. …The ageing of populations has utterly reshaped the composition of government spending. …since 1980 transfers to the elderly and spending on health care—which is overwhelmingly concentrated on them—have grown by about 5% of GDP in the OECD group of rich countries, twice the rise in other social spending.  Advanced economies in the G20 will, on their current trajectories, spend another 2.4% of GDP more annually on pensions and health care by 2030 than in 2023, according to the IMF. …ageing a fiscal problem… 

At their inception, public pensions in Britain and Germany offered meagre support to those over 70 when life expectancy was 45-50. But as life expectancy shot up, the age at which public pensions could be claimed did not keep pace. …Since then governments have made efforts to raise retirement ages in line with increases in longevity, but it is fiddling around the edges compared with the decades-long trend. …Proposals to make even minor changes to pension benefits have provoked furious protests in backlash. …As populations have aged, politics seems to have become more of a bidding war… The elderly have a lock on welfare states.

For those who want to dig into all the numbers, the study I co-authored last year for the Fraser Institute shows how various nations are dealing with government pensions.

You’ll see that France has the world’s second-highest fiscal burden for old-age income support, trailing only Italy (another nation that’s probably on the brink of fiscal crisis).

At the risk of understatement, this won’t end well. I fear the French are not sufficiently responsible to maintain a functioning democracy.

P.S. That aforementioned Fraser report explains that there are some nations that are in decent (or less-worse) long-run shape because voters elected governments that created private retirement accounts. Examples include Denmark, Sweden, Estonia, the Netherlands, Australia, Chile, Israel, and Switzerland. Sadly, the United States is not on this list.

France, Germany, and and the 17th Theorem of Government

October 7, 2025 by Dan Mitchell @ International Liberty

I have a three-part series (here, here, and here) about a likely fiscal crisis hitting Europe.

As a matter of fact, I don’t actually think it is “likely.”

 

It’s a given at this point. The only mystery is which domino falls first.

My pessimism is based on the fact that European nations already suffer from staggering fiscal burdens.

And because of aging populations, government spending is projected to consume ever-larger shares of economic output in the future.

It seems more people are now aware of the problem.

Here are some excerpts from a report in the Washington Post by Annabelle Timsit, Anthony Faiola, and Aaron Wiener. They focus on France and Germany and the news is grim.

Across Europe, and especially in France, the bill is coming due. The cost of…the so-called European way of life, offering health care, affordable education and a dignified retirement to all, through high social spending — is becoming unbearably high. …In France, …the nation’s debt soars, its credit rating slips, incomes stagnate, prime ministers fall and the country stumbles into ungovernability… 

Related challenges loom in neighboring Germany, where the economy is flat after two consecutive years of decline, companies are shedding jobs, infrastructure has crumbled, and the government is bracing the populace for tumultuous cuts… For France and Germany, long the pillars of the European Union, it is unclear that they can still afford to be the West’s guiding lights of economic justice.

Here are some passages showing the dependency mindset in France.

Anastasia Blay, 31, a camera assistant in Paris, does not believe her generation should…sacrifice benefits. For years, Blay survived with the help of a government subsidy for entertainment workers…which she and others view as an unbreakable social contract… A monthly social welfare payment for low-income workers now supports her during periods of unemployment… 

She has joined a string of street protests aimed at paralyzing the country. Even with government aid and a family apartment that allows her to live rent-free, she says it’s hard to make ends meet. “For me, the problem is injustice, the gap between the poor and the rich, and the rich who, in reality, are barely taxed compared to what they earn,” she said. While she said she feels “a bit ashamed” to rely on welfare and fears people’s judgment, the payments help her “keep my dignity and … live decently.” “It’s a right and not a privilege, in my opinion,” she said.

Ms. Blay obviously does not understand economics, as shown by her views that upper-income people are under-taxed.

 

But the biggest problem with the above is that she thinks mooching off taxpayers is “a right and not a privilege.”

She could be the poster child for my 17th Theorem of Government.

Makes me wonder if she is friends with Olga and Natalija.

Let’s shift to Germany. Here’s an excerpt showing fiscal extravagance – and fiscal delusion – in Germany.

Today, between basic welfare and housing assistance, a German family of four on welfare can receive as much as 5,000 euros a month — roughly $5,873, or $70,476 a year, an unthinkably high amount in the United States. …Labor Minister and co-SPD chief Bärbel Bas responded curtly to Merz’s claim that Germany can’t afford its social programs. “That is bulls—,” Bas said.

At the risk of understatement, Miniser Bas is wrong. And interest rates of long-term German government bonds suggest financial markets agree with me.

I’ll close with a chart, based on IMF data, showing that the problem in much of Europe is excessive government spending. As you can see, both taxes and spending consume much greater shares of economic output in Germany and France than Switzerland.

I also included Italy to show that France and Germany are just as bad – or even worse – on fiscal policy.

Actually, I’ll include one more chart. It’s no coincidence that Switzerland is much richer than its neighbors – more than $22,000 of additional economic output per year compared to the average of Germany, France, and Italy!

Maybe, just maybe, there’s a lesson to be learned about the relationship between the size of government and national prosperity.

P.S. I should have written “Medium-Sized Government Switzerland” since the East Asian tiger economies have significantly smaller spending burdens.

The 2025 Version of a “Sniveling and Despicable French Thief”

September 5, 2025 by Dan Mitchell @ International Liberty

Back in 2012, I mocked French politicians because they were whining about upper-income taxpayers escaping from France.

That column discussed well-to-do French taxpayers moving to Belgium, which is also a high-tax welfare state, but has the advantage of having no capital gains tax.

Today will feature a new version of that column.

But instead of being about French politicians complaining about tax refugees going to Belgium, the new controversy is French politicians complaining about tax refugees going to Italy.

Let’s look at some excerpts from an article in the European Conservative by Javier Villamor.

Try not to laugh as you read about Prime Minister Bayrou’s complaints.

 

French Prime Minister François Bayrou has accused Italy of luring away France’s wealthy taxpayers… In a televised interview on Sunday evening carried by four news channels, Bayrou accused Giorgia Meloni’s government of pursuing a “tax dumping” policy that, according to him, is driving wealthy taxpayers out of France and weakening the state’s revenues. “The wealthiest people are leaving. …Italy is currently applying a tax dumping policy,” Bayrou stated… The exchange has once again highlighted long-standing tensions within the European Union over tax competition between member states.

Like Belgium, Italy is a high-tax welfare state.

But it is also like Belgium in that it has a specific policy – in Italy’s case, a special flat tax regime – that makes it attractive for wealthy foreigners.

For the most part, Italy is defending itself. Here are some passages from a story in Bloomberg by Donato Paolo Mancini.

 

Italy and France sparred over tax competition within the European Union… Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s office replied with an unusual personal rebuke that called the claim “utterly baseless.” …In Italy, measures include incentives for high net-worth individuals to move their fiscal residence to Italy in exchange for a flat tax on their worldwide assets and earnings… Italy’s plan — known in private wealth circles as “empty London” — has lured rich foreigners from the UK, attracting a range of wealthy emigrants from hedge fund managers to ex-CEOs and Middle Eastern billionaires. The law also includes tax breaks for inheritances. …Marco Osnato, the head of the economic department in Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, said in an interview. “France would do better to reflect on its own conduct rather than accuse others.”

The final sentence in the above excerpt is key.

Taxpayers are escaping France because the French tax system is bad. Rather that whining about Italy, politicians in Paris should lower tax rates (I’m not holding my breath).

P.S. The United Kingdom used to have a “non-dom” policy that was very similar to the Italian system. But greedy and short-sighted British politicians have eroded that system. So many of the affected taxpayers have moved and Italy is a favored destination – hence the “Empty London” moniker.

A Debt Crisis for France?

September 2, 2025 by Dan Mitchell @ International Liberty

I’ve been explaining for years that economists are lousy forecasters.  But we are capable of noticing trends, including trends that will lead of bad outcomes if not reversed.

 

For instance, my recent series on “France and Fiscal Suicide” points out (see Part I, Part II, Part III, and Part IV) that the country will have some sort of crisis unless there is a serious effort to reduce the burden of government spending.

Heck, I’ve been beating that drum for a long time, and I also made France a case study for my 20th Theorem of Government.

So even though I’m still not willing to make specific predictions, it certainly appears that a fiscal meltdown may be on the horizon.

Here are some excerpts from a Wall Street Journal editorial last week.

…after all these years Paris still can’t get a grip on its budget or the economy. Prime Minister François Bayrou said Monday he’ll call a confidence vote on Sept. 8. He’s likely to lose. …Cue a steep drop in French shares…and surging bond yields. …French unemployment remains persistently high, and the productive parts of the economy are straining under a welfare state that extracted 51.4% of GDP last year in revenue… You’d think an economic and fiscal disaster of this magnitude would produce a burst of creative policy and political thinking. Instead, politicians mostly agree that they’d prefer to raise taxes than cut any spending or reform any entitlements.

That’s not encouraging.

But prepare to be even more pessimistic after perusing passages from Matthew Lynn’s column in the U.K.-based Telegraph.

 

The Government is teetering on the edge of collapse, the budget is out of control, there are emergency tax rises on the way and the rioters are gearing up for protests… With worries about government debt and the affordability of lavish welfare systems rising all the time, France could be about to trigger a full-blown market crash. … 

State spending has hit 58pc of GDP, while the tax burden on workers has hit 47pc, one of the highest levels in the OECD. And yet despite that, the deficit is forecast to hit 5.7pc of GDP this year and will probably punch through 6pc, while its debt-to-GDP ratio is over 113pc… It is hardly surprising that investors are starting to feel nervous about lending the country even more money. Yields have already spiked above Greece and Portugal, two countries at the epicentre of the last eurozone crisis, and that is hardly reassuring, while the finance minister, Eric Lombard, has started warning about an IMF bailout.

Here’s a chart that accompanied the column.

As you can see, one symptom of excessive government spending is that debt is becoming an ever-greater burden.

The author warns that a crisis in France may spread to other nations, which is a very real possibility given their fiscal problems.

…watch out for contagion. …France is the most fiscally irresponsible of all the major developed global economies. …if it crashes, then other countries – most notably the UK – will very quickly get caught up in the storm as well, just as Ireland and Portugal were after Greece crashed. The markets will be looking for the next domino to fall, and it won’t be long before they find it.

I’ll close with two comments.

• First, if France does have a crisis (i.e., a loss of confidence by investors, leading to a sudden spike in yields on government bonds, perhaps accompanied by troubles for the entire financial system), I will have to eat crow because I’ve been speculating for years that Italy will be the first domino to fall.
• Second, Mr. Lynn seems to think it would be good if France still had its own currency so it could just use inflation as a means of partially repudiating its debt. That is wrong. France’s problem is excessive government, not the euro currency. French politicians instead should opt for “internal devaluation,” which is just a wonky way of saying they need small government and free markets.

Because France seems to be a cesspool of statism, I won’t be holding my breath waiting for the right approach.

Though, five years ago, I never would have predicted Argentina’s renaissance, so one should never give up hope.

P.S. I’m going to add one more comment.

• Third, a nation’s debt burden matters, but what also matters is whether policy is moving in the right direction or wrong direction. For instance, the EU chart below shows that Greece has the highest debt burden in the European Union, yet it is now considered to be in decent shape because of short-run spending restraint and long-run pension reform. In other words, it is heading in the right direction and debt is declining. France, by contrast, is vulnerable because politicians are in a never-ending cycle of more taxes, more spending, and more debt.

Here’s the chart showing European debt burdens, courtesy of Eurostat.

P.P.S. The chart also shows that it is possible to be a high-tax welfare state with reasonable debt levels, though it is worth noting that nations such as Sweden, Denmark, and Luxembourg are very pro-market in areas other than fiscal policy. And Denmark and Sweden have been moving in the right direction on fiscal policy.

France and Fiscal Suicide: Part IV

June 13, 2025 by Dan Mitchell @ International Liberty 

France is a role model, but not in a good way. It is a stark example of the dangers of excessive government spending.

 

To elaborate, it has the largest fiscal burden of any first-world nation, which necessitates an oppressive tax regime.

And a bloated public sector also means lots of debt.

Indeed, it may be the case that red ink is no longer just a symptom of the problem, but may be a problem in its own right.

That’s one of the takeaways from a column in the U.K.-based Telegraph by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.

 

Emmanuel Macron’s failure to halt the runaway expansion of the French state…is the larger story of incorrigible Gallic wishful thinking. “Our sad record is that we are the most spendthrift country in the world. People simply don’t realise it, and those who ought to be talking about this are negligent,” said Jean-Claude Trichet, ex-president of the European Central Bank. …three storm-clouds are gathering: 

a) the country has crossed a critical line and is now in the early stages of an arithmetical debt trap; 

b) global real interest rates have jumped to a permanently higher level and creditors are freshly alert to debt dynamics; and 

c) the recent upheaval in Japan’s once-catatonic bond market has sent shivers up everybody’s spine. …“The situation is extremely serious,” said Mr Trichet. 

“We are in a terrible situation when you compare us with other countries. We have the least ambitious deficit plans in Europe by a long way.”  

He is watching with forensic fascination and alarm as France is forced to pay significantly higher borrowing costs than Spain and Portugal… “ 

Emmanuel Macron has allowed such runaway growth in public spending that it is now nearly impossible to control. There are so many people dependent on the state that you can’t get a majority to agree to cuts,” said Prof Dor. … 

The International Monetary Fund says French public spending will be 57.3pc of GDP this year and is still on a rising trend. This is roughly 10 points higher than in Sweden or Denmark. …Debt will rise mechanically to 116pc this year from 113pc last year. It will reach 120pc by 2028 even if all goes well.

Here’s a chart from the article showing how France is diverging from Germany and the Netherlands…and not in a good way.

I don’t think that France is doomed to be in the “arithmetical debt trap” referenced in the article, though it’s international investors who will make that decision.

Any sort of hiccup in the global economy could have very worrisome consequences if the so-called bond market vigilantes decide that the French government no longer is trustworthy.

And that day will come if France doesn’t change course.

The good news is that there is a solution. France needs to follow the Golden Rule by making sure government spending in the future grows slower than the private sector.

Based on the numbers I shared last September, that wouldn’t involve dramatic changes. Slowing the budget so it grows by 2 percent per year (rather than 3 percent or 3-1/2 percent) is all that is needed.

A spending cap with some program reform would put France on the right path. Not that I’m optimistic that will happen (heck, we need something similar in the United States and I’m not hopeful that we’ll do the right thing, either).

Too bad we can’t both be like Switzerland.

Part II: What’s the Better Role Model, France or Switzerland?

May 2, 2025 by Dan Mitchell @ International Liberty

Editor's Note: First, the term "economic freedom" should never appear in an article with any European nation unless it describes the lack thereof in my view.  All of Europe has been socialist forever in lesser or greater degrees and recent decades the green movement has worsened their economic viability.  As for being good on trade, libertarians have a disturbing mental block about the reality of trade agreements and tariffs.  Having said that, I published this anyway. RK

Switzerland is a role model (the freest nation, the most-sensible nation, etc) and France is suffering from statism (biggest spending burden, confiscatory taxes, etc).

As such, nobody should be surprised to learn that Switzerland is more prosperous. But even I was surprised to see data from the World Bank showing that per-capita GDP is more than two times higher than it is in France.

That’s a jaw-dropping difference, especially since the two countries were almost equal 50 years ago. So we definitely have another entry for our anti-convergence club.

I first compared France and Switzerland back in 2013.

All that has happened in the past dozen years is that Switzerland has maintained much better policy and widened its economic advantage.

I normally highlight fiscal policy differences when comparing nations, but here’s a tweet from Michael Arouet showing the difference between Swiss labor law and French labor law.

What makes the comparison even more dramatic is that the the Swiss labor law pamphlet would be much smaller if it was just printed in one language like the French book.

But the Swiss version includes separate sections show their labor law in French, German, Italian, and Romansh.

The obvious takeaway, as Mr. Arouet notes, is that it obviously is much simpler to create jobs in Switzerland.

I’ll close by showing how both nations rank according to the latest edition of the Fraser Institute’s Economic Freedom of the World.

Give France credit for being better on trade, but Switzerland wins the other four categories.

P.S. Looking at specific issue areas, Switzerland has better policy on health care, retirement, and many different ways of measuring fiscal policy. And it goes without saying that the Swiss are better on gun rights.

Observations From the Back Row

By Rich Kozlovich  

Well, the Wisconsin Supreme Court election has been resolved, the far left radical, Susan Crawford has won, which was characterized with verbiage the outcome would "affect the entire destiny of humanity," because it would impact the outcome of the midterms.  Well, three things.  First, I think that's hyperbole.  Second, Wisconsin has an issue with voter fraud, so the outcome shouldn't be that much of a shocker.  Third, Wisconsin isn't going to carry the the nation or the world anywhere.  

It's clear neither Russia, Ukraine, or the rest of Europe want a peace deal, and there's even been talk if it looks as if Russia starts running over Ukraine, they'll explode their nuclear plants making Ukraine uninhabitable.  Now that's really insane.  

We already know about the corrupt efforts in the US to put Trump in jail to prevent him from running for a second term, and the corrupt judicial coup d’etat’ Democrats are employing to destroy Trump's presidency, and this is clearly a pattern of behavior for leftists/tyrants worldwide.  Lawfare, corruption of the rule of law, and worse against political opponents.  In Russia Putin's rival, Alexei Navalny, was arrested and died in prison, and no one doubts he was murdered.  In Brazil they've arrested Jair Bolsonaro for allegedly plotting a coup and asks, where's my crime? 

Romania arrested Câlin Georgescu, which halted elections because it looked as if he was going to win.  In Turkey the demonstrations are huge, numbering hundreds of thousands, and some are claiming over a million, because Erdogan arrested his opponent, Ekrem Imamoglu, on trumped up charges, and now in France's Le Pen has been found guilty of embezzlement and the court is forbidding her from running in the election.  But this is France, and Le Pen is surging in the polls and she's adamant she will not let the election be ‘stolen’ by judges.

One outrage after another: Europe is lost - From banning Marine Le Pen from the French presidency to negating Romania's election, Europe is a mess.

 Vance Vindicated: Warnings About EU Proven Prophetic After Le Pen Ban - Vice President JD Vance was correct in warning of attacks on democracy and liberty in Europe, supporters claimed, as populist National Rally leader Marine Le Pen was banned from running in the French presidential election..

Democracy Denied - Democracy is imperiled across what used to be known as the Free World. In France, Marine Le Pen, who likely would have won that country’s next presidential election, has been prosecuted and found guilty of embezzlement, and barred from running for office for five years–until after the 2027 presidential election, in other words............In Brazil, former President Jair Bolsonaro is charged with attempting a coup, after some of his supporters “stormed” government buildings following his 2022 re-election defeat. Bolsonaro was out of the country when the alleged “storming” occurred. ............In Germany, the entire political system has been distorted to achieve a single goal: keeping the Alternative For Germany...............

From the beginning of the covid scare I stated it was scare mongering for political purposes, and it wasn't long before we knew these shots were not vaccines, but genetic manipulating chemical compounds that were going to impact humanity negatively for many years to come.  I had said this was our thalidomide era, only much, much worse, and every week more information comes forth to prove that to be true.

The nitwit brigade is ever with us as  Yvette Clarke  Chairwoman of the Congressional Black Caucus claims Trump and Musk are nuts getting rid of all these amazing people in these agencies since these bureaucrats are efficiency experts!  Remarkable! Well, why were they caught destroying evidence of funding to the Taliban?   Why was the FBI trying to suppress the Hunter Biden laptop scandal?

1. Department of Education Investigates California for Allowing Schools to Hide Students’ ‘Gender Identity’ from Parents
2. DOGE Updates Leaderboard Showcasing Savings of $130 Billion
3. DOGE Leader Speaks Out About Waste, Fraud, and Abuse Musk: Law Says Money Can’t Be Wasted, Has to Be ‘Spent Correctly ‘One Outrageous Thing After Another’
4. DOGE: Department of Labor Cancels $577 Million in ‘America Last’ Grants Includes Funding for ‘Gender Equity in the Mexican Workplace’
5. State Department Officially Notifies Congress That USAID Has Been Dissolved
6. DOL Cancels $577M in Useless Grants…

None of that seems to indicate competence at any level, or perhaps they were just dogging it?  Personally I go for both, incompetence and sloth.  

The real insurrection wasn't January 6th, it's the judicial misconduct that's destroying the rule of law.

“Currently, district court judges have assumed the mantle of Secretary of Defense, Secretary of State, Secretary of Homeland Security and Commander-in-Chief. Each day, they change the foreign policy, economic, staffing and national security policies of the Administration. Each day, the  nation arises to see what the craziest unelected local federal judge has decided the policies of the government of the United States shall be. It is madness. It is lunacy. It is pure lawlessness. It is the gravest assault on democracy. It must end and will end.” —Stephen Miller, U.S. Homeland Security Advisor

Personally, I get a kick out of this.  ICE Walks Into a Boston Courtroom, Arrests an Illegal Alien During His Trial and Hauls Him Away.  Apparently the judge was outraged and found them in contempt, but I doubt if they care, this was a message that needed to be sent.  You can't hide!  We will find you, and we will arrest you!  The secondary message is the courts may make pronouncements, but it's the executive that carries out enforcement.  At some point the judiciary needs to start asking themselves some pertinent questions.

1. What happens when the executive branch simply starts saying "no" to their pronouncements?  The Pravda media can no longer help them as no one cares what they have to say.
2. What happens when the Congress starts passing laws to restrict their jurisdiction, which the Constitution gives them the right to do?  
3. What happens when the public has so little respect for the judiciary they refuse to adhere their pronouncements?  That's the question that should scare everyone. 
   

Is western civilization on the verge of upheaval and pushback over the insanity the left has imposed on the world?  Lars Møller thinks so saying:

American politics, not to mention European, has long been characterized by leaders who dared not stand up for Western civilization in an unequivocal way. At last, however, Americans may declare to the rest of the world where anti-Western forces are constantly on the lookout for signs of weakness: “You shall know us by our resolve.”

One of the things these demonstrations in Turkey are generating is a serious concern for economic stabilization and Turkey’s foreign relations.  In South East Asia China's sabre rattling conduct is causing kick back from it's neighbors, and that will have a long term negative impact on China in a lot arenas.  As for their military build up and antics around Taiwan.... it just doesn't matter, that's all show and no go.  They they know it, and so to does Taiwan, and they're making sure China keeps understanding it's all for show by adding their first bunch of 66 F-16 fighters to their air force.  Unlike Ukraine, they get it. 

 

Trump's tariffs initially cause a lot of chest thumping haranguing, but everyday the geopolitical sites tell how after their virtue signally, they quietly come to terms, and that will be the story that's going to play out from now on. 

 

Finally, Sen. Cory Booker talked on the Senate floor for over 24 hours because.... he's an idiot.  It was called a hyperbolic, theatrical rant against Trump, but it wasn't a filibusterer, it was a stunt. To do what? Show off?

 

 The end result?  Trump is still President, the Congress is still controlled by the Republicans and no one cared what he had to say.   How do I know?   Can anyone show me one quote the Pravda media feels is so compelling it's repeating it?  The "Democrats are still stuck in the muck, with a toxic brand", and their approval ratings are continuing to drop.  Imagine that!

 

Is Le Pen Mightier Than the Sword?

Lessons on lawfare in the wake of Trump.

By Mark Angelides | Apr 1, 2025 @ Liberty Nation News, Tags: Articles, International, Opinion 

Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s right-wing National Rally (NR) party, was, on Monday, March 31, convicted of embezzlement and barred from running for office for the next five years. While headlines across Europe and the United States were written with barely constrained joy at her political demise, Le Pen’s story is far from over. And if 2024 delivered any lessons at all in the repercussions of prosecuting populist leaders, the French judiciary may have made a huge miscalculation.

Embezzlement?

Along with a $108,000 fine and a suspended prison sentence, Le Pen is now banned from contesting the 2027 presidential election, in which she was highly likely to succeed. President Emmanuel Macron is term-limited and will not be able to seek a third term; after coming second in those two contests, the NR leader had improved her polling and looked set to redefine French politics come election day.

But the five-year ban is more than a little curious.

Consider the facts. Le Pen’s party in the European Parliament received EU funds; prosecutors claim that these funds were stolen, and the verdict declared her crimes a “democratic bypass.” And that is pretty much the limit of US reporting on the matter. But what did she spend the cash on? Here’s where things get a little murkier.

Le Pen represents her party in the European Union parliament and, as such, is entitled to funds for political enterprises. She also represents her party nationally in France as leader. Did she treat herself to lavish gifts, fancy meals, and designer clothing? No. Indeed, the funds to which she was legally entitled to spend were apparently – to some degree – commingled between her EU and national administration party activities. Simply put, she spent money designated for political activity on political activity.

Rules are rules, some might say. However, in 2025, French staple Le Monde reported that fully one-quarter of all members of the European parliament were involved in some type of scandal. While these range from the undoubtedly criminal to the more Kafkaesque foibles inherent in an overly bureaucratic apparatus, a great many are accused of precisely the same act as Le Pen.

So, why single out the leader of the party that could well form the next government? The clue is in the punishments.

See You on Monday, Le Pen

Le Pen’s sentence will undoubtedly be appealed – although French appeals courts are notoriously slow. As such, the verdict declares that her suspended prison term will not commence, nor will she have to pay the fine straight away – both of these will be on hold until all avenues of appeal are exhausted. But the ban on running for office has already started, meaning that even if she successfully appeals, she will almost certainly not be eligible to appear on the ballot in time for the 2027 election.

Your News – How You Like It!

Even more surprising is that this ban applies only to seeking new office. She is currently the leader of the NR party in the EU and sits in its Parliament – she remains welcome to serve out her term in office. How curious.

Here’s an example. Let’s say Mr. X worked for a bank. Over a period of years, he stole money from the bank, was eventually caught, and then went to trial. After being sentenced, the owner of the bank catches up to him and says, “You thief! You stole from us! You deserve the prison sentence and the punishment. By the way, don’t be late for work on Monday.”

With this scenario in place, one wonders just how political the whole operation was.

Where Enemies Fear to Tread

As expected, Le Pen railed against the sentence, even storming out of the court as it was being delivered. Her deputy and likely contender for the election, should Le Pen fail to earn a reprieve, Jordan Bardella, said that Le Pen “is being unjustly condemned” and that French democracy “is being executed.” But her political opponents also had reservations regarding the outcome. Conservative politician Laurent Wauquiez wrote on X (translated):

“The decision to convict Marine Le Pen is both weighty and exceptional. In a democracy, it is unhealthy for an elected official to be barred from running for office. Political debates must be decided at the ballot box, by the French people.”

Monsieur Wauquiez has a point.

There are two aspects to consider in the sentencing of Le Pen. The first is that when Macron came back to power, he begged for help from all comers to defeat NR, resulting in a French parliament that could function only with Le Pen walking the moderate path. The ragtag collection of Greens, Communists, and the like have already resulted in losing four prime ministers in 2024 alone. With Le Pen unleashed, the French government can no longer rely on her to help battle the more radical elements invited in by a desperate president. Votes of “no confidence” are sure to begin mounting now that Le Pen has likely been denied a path to direct power.

For keen political observers, another possibility is on the not-too-distant horizon. Democrats, the American judicial system, and the Fourth Estate were all aligned in their efforts to send Donald Trump to the Big House rather than the White House. In fact, there’s a solid argument to be made that the multiple prosecutions backfired and added fuel to the campaign fire, thrusting him back to the presidency. It is no coincidence that his mugshot became one of several now-iconic images of that 2024 race.

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban posted along with the verdict: “Je Suis Marine” (I am Marine). Whether her second-in-command, Bardella, or she herself is on the ballot in 2027, her treatment by the state and the judiciary will be the looming shadow under which all campaigns are measured. The French voters may feel that they too, in at least some small way, are “Marine.”

~

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