P&D Geopolitics Editon: The World As I See It

By Rich Kozlovich

Here are some of my observations regarding the geopolitical events over the last two weeks.  

First, the tension between China and Taiwan never ceases.  Recently the Taiwanese Coast Gruad used water cannons of Chinese fishing vessel infringing in their territorial waters near Pratas Island.   

There's a diplomatic row between South Korea and Ukraine over the swap of 2 North Korean prisoners of war to South Korea.  According to South Korean President Lee this was supposed to be done in secret, and Zelenskyy (correct spelling) reneged on that agreement.  Ukraine is calling this a "misunderstanding", everyone else is calling it betrayal.  Given Zelenskyy is foundationally corrupt, I'm not surprised, but I have wonder what was going on in his mind.  What does he think he gained from betraying South Korea's trust.  I don't think he's the brightest pebble in the brook.  

Voter fraud is a political pandemic and now India's opposition parties are launching protests over the ruling party's manipulation of voter lists in order to favor the ruling Prime Minister's party.  One of the things I think we fail to understand is India does not have a united culture, nor was it a united natioln until the British took it over and united all the little independent kingdoms into a single nation.  That never really took, any more than it took with Europeans and the EU.  And just like the EU the historical bickering and resentment is the foundational social paradigm in India. 

We're not seeing much about the issues regarding the conflict going on in Ethiopia, which never seems to ever go away, and potentially impact what goes on in the Red Sea. Currently Ethiopia is at war with the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in the Northern region of Ethiopia.  I find this whole affair convoluted and confusing as Eritrea was allegedly upset over an agreement that prevented the  elimination of the TPLF, and yet Ethiopia accused them of supporting at least seven armed groups, including the TPLF in order to weaken and/or destabilize Ethiopia's government.  Now Eritrea has broken off diplomatic relations with since Ethiopia intended to close the Eritrean embassy and expel their diplomats.  Ethiopia's military has captured the Tigrayan capital of Mekelle  and it 's expected Eritrean troops will enter the picture potentially triggering open war between them.  At least that was the case as of two weeks ago.

The U.S. is diverting $52 million dollars of military aid from Europe and the Middle East to Latin and South America in order to lend support to the conservative governments taking hold there, which is understandable since the foundational social paradigm in Latin and South America is for leftists to murder, riot, rebel and destroy in an effort to take by force what was taken from them by the people's choice to kick them to the curb.  And guess what?  The Democrats are really upset over that claiming that's eroding trust from our "allies" in Europe and the Middle East.  With allies like them, who needs enemies?  

If find so many things Trump does to be confusing, but one pattern emerges.  He's willing to "forcefully leverage the economic and security dependencies of both allies and adversaries in pursuit of its strategic goals."  Remember, Russia is the country on which he's imposed sanctions on over Russia unjustified was with Ukraine. Now, Putin's planning an "energy offensive" against Ukraine "to cripple electricity, heating and water supplies in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa by targeting substations supporting European electricity imports, hydroelectric plants, nuclear plants' grid connections and municipal utilities." 

Profits from Russian energy is the life blood of the Russian economy, and yet he's cut a deal with Putin to buy "Russian diesel fuel and ease energy sanctions to combat soaring U.S. and global fuel prices", and yet he's imposing trader restrictions on Russia over the Ukraine war, he's cracking down on what's designated as a "Russia-linked A7 Network as a transnational criminal organization to sever a major financial and payment lifeline used by Iran to evade sanctions."

At the same time he's saying the The U.S. and Israel Should Close Aviation Sanctions Loopholes on Russia and Iran with "Leonid Baratz arguing that the Treasury should designate Aeroflot and Red Wings, a Russian airline that still flies to Tel Aviv, and that Israel should close Ben Gurion Airport to it."  

We're capable of being a totally energy independent nation and yet we need to have the other G-7 nation members release up to "100 million barrels of crude oil, diesel over the next four months".  Other than Canada, how can an almost totally energy dependent France, Germany, Italy, the UK and Japan have that much fuel? 

The Middle East is a lit stick of dynamite; but then again, what's new? Now it's just new players with old schemes taking different sides, which in the Middle East is like having breakfast everyday.  Saudi Arabia is being attacked by the Houthi, an Iranian backed terrorist group, and now Yemen's civil war has intensified since Saudi Arabia and their partners have upped their efforts to destroy the Houthi.  

The Kurds want their own nation, and as a result they're are at war with everyone, including Syria, and that's not going away any time soon, Armenian and Azerbaijan looks like their peace talks are about to become undone.  Previously they agreed to "stop all fighting forever, open up commerce, travel and diplomatic relations, and respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Now Azerbaijan is demanding.... demanding mind you..... concession that borders on ridiculous.  And we're shocked? 

European governments suffer from suicidal delusions on immigration, but maybe that will start to change.  The European Parliament  Adopts Landmark Resolution Targeting Islamist Infiltration demanding "tighter checks on EU money and a request that governments consider placing Muslim Brotherhood-linked groups on the EU terrorist list."  Has the riots in France had anything to do with this.  I have to wonder if France is the trigger that will set this off.  However, as Charles de Gaulle once noted: "Even I can't keep the French from being French", and I really have to  wonder if the French are capable of dealing with this.