My Gazette: Russo/Ukrainian War

By Rich Kozlovich

I find geopolitics more than interesting, and difficult to grasp what really is going on, so I've developed The Seven Rules of Geopolitics to try an get a better understanding of what actually going on.

1. First Rule of Geopolitics: All geopolitics is about four factors, geographics, demographics, economics, and that most elusive factor of all, the happiness factor.  
   
2. Second Rule of Geopolitics:  Everything is about the basics.  You have to be able to see issues at their foundational root levels in order to understand and fix complex problems.
   
3. Third Rule of Geopolitics:  History is everything since historical events lay the foundation for the social paradigms of nations, which have been in effect for centuries in most areas of the world.
   
4. Fourth Rule of Geopolitics:  People are like nations, and will act in their own best interests, unless they don't.  
5. Fifth Rule of Geopolitics: Nothing is ever as it appears.  Look behind the curtain, there's always something hidden. 
6. Sixth Rule of Geopolitics:  The patterns of life keep repeating over and over again. 
   
7. Seventh Rule of Geopolitics:  Everyone lies.     
   

Most of what I read about Ukraine and Russia is at best contradictory.  Here are some articles that appeared at the Jamestown Foundation, and I think they're more insightful than most because they deal with "the basics", and look behind the curtain.   I recommend subscribing, it's free. 

Ukraine at War: The Year Past and the Year Ahead (Part Two) - By: Vladimir Socor - Read Part One. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) made clear in 2023 that Ukraine could not expect to be offered a sought-after membership plan so long as Russia’s war continues. Any decision on this... MORE

Ukraine at War: The Year Past and the Year Ahead (Part One) By: Vladimir Socor In 2023, Russia redoubled efforts in its two-fold war in Ukraine: against Ukraine itself and against the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Moscow openly declares this dual agenda. Most Western governments,... 

Kazakhstan Turns Toward China Amid Cooling Relations With Russia November 28, 2023 By: Nuray Alekberli-Museyibova - In late October, Kazakhstan halted the export of 106 products to Russia, a move attributed to Astana’s growing compliance with Western sanctions. Kazakhstan’s Deputy Minister of Trade and Integration Kairat Torebayev confirmed that the banned products are primarily linked to military goods, including drones, their internal components, and specialized electronics and microchips (Tengri News, October 19). President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev considers upholding the sanctions regime while balancing relations with Kazakhstan’s neighbors as paramount to the country’s economic security (Kazakhstanskaya Pravda, September 29)..........

Russia’s Row With Finland Exacerbates Baltic Solitude - By: Pavel K. Baev - Russia’s geopolitical influence is increasingly shrinking in the Baltic Sea region. The most recent episode in the region’s worsening relations with Moscow was the sudden arrival of hundreds of migrants from the Middle East and... ........

China Exploits Russia’s Vulnerabilities December 5, 2023 05:51 PM By: Ksenia Kirillova According to reports from Chinese media in late November, Beijing has refused to invest in the construction of the Power of Siberia-2 natural gas pipeline, proposing instead that Moscow fully cover the multibillion-dollar project. China also insists on substantial discounts for Russian gas, demonstrating strong... MORE

The Kremlin Prepares for Winter in Ukraine Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor - By: Pavel Luzin November 16, 2023 - Many observers of Russia’s war against Ukraine have been discussing what they term “an impending stalemate” on the battlefield (Kyiv Post, August 28; Euromaidan Press, November 4; The Moscow Times, November 11). Others have pushed for peace talks and formulated a future “Korea scenario” for Ukraine (Kyiv Post, February 13; Uacrisis.org, August 28; TASS, August 30). The Kremlin, however, seems to be losing its demonstrative optimism in pushing back Ukrainian forces, as Kyiv’s slow, but steady counteroffensive presses on (see EDM, November 15; Ukrinform, November 16 [1], [2]). The Russian military is scrambling to prepare for the worst possible scenarios as the winter campaign begins...............

Russian Armed Forces Remain Severely Understaffed By: Pavel Luzin The true organizational state of the Russian Armed Forces has been a “black box” since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The exact number of troops at the Kremlin’s disposal is unclear, and..........

 Kazakhstan and Turkey Make Steady Progress in Expanding Military Cooperation By: Nurbek Bekmurzaev On November 28, Kazakhstan’s Defense Ministry declared that the process of selecting a domestic company for the production of Turkish combat drones was already underway (Kazinform, November 28). The statement confirmed earlier news that the... ....