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De Omnibus Dubitandum - Lux Veritas

Thursday, October 21, 2021

The Pandemic of Tyranny and Hysteria Fuels Economic Crises

By Rich Kozlovich

Along with other sites I subscribe to I subscribe to Geopolitical Futures, which is a paid subscription site.  I also subscribe to a number of free sites, including the Johnstown Foundation, and the American Institute for Economic Research.

So that  no one will have to ask, I'm not getting paid to promote these sites.   What I do is follow the facts wherever they may lead.  My personal motto is "De omnibus Dubitandum", everything is to be questioned.   P&D is about good and reliable information and analysis, and they provide it, so I promote them.  That may change, and if so, so will I, as has happened with others I no longer trust as they've gotten lost in the pews of the Church of Wokeness.  Both of these sites will provide a massive level of information you will never see in the news.

So I highly recommend everyone should subscribe to all these sites in order to get daily analyses on what's going on in all parts of the world.  All presented without hyperbole, hysteria and slanted politics. I don't always agree with what's said, but I find their conclusions are predicated on the facts as they see them, and usually their conclusions are excellent.  In the case of Geopolitical Futures each writer is an expert on the area they discuss, as in the case of Geopolitical Futures, George Friedman, the owner of Geopolitical Futures, notes in  his commentary on supply chain issues:

Ekaterina Zolotova and Phillip Orchard can explain why Russian-Chinese maneuvers are insignificant. Antonia Colibasanu and Francesco Casarotto can try to explain Europe. Hilal Khashan can talk about why Lebanon will totally collapse for real this time (I thought hisThe Illusion of Arab Nationalism, was very enlightening. RK) and Allison Fedirka can explain the latest weirdness in Venezuela. 

This piece started with Allison's analytic article, For Brazil, a Bad Year Could Get Worse, a subscribers only article, she outlines how:

Severe disruptions and erratic trade dynamics are wreaking havoc globally but manifest differently in each country. Brazil deserves closer examination because its $1.4 trillion economy is home to the largest, busiest port in South America, and it is among the world’s leading food producers. Major failures in this economy can ripple through the region as well as global markets.

In the course of the article she shows these trends in Brazil, and this is only the tip of the iceberg, and not just for Brazil.

  • climbing inflation, 
  • food supply issues
  • imbalances in the labor market
  • limited tools to mitigate the damage
  • price jumps in electricity, cooking gas and food
  • interest rate hikes
  • unemployment and underemployment
  • persistent supply chain complications..
  • international trade

She went on to note, in Brazil "this year nearly 5 million people fell out of the middle class." Is it any wonder?

This "excellent" piece lent itself to this expanded commentary by me.  Her analysis should be read by every pundit, newscaster and opinion maker as a worldwide wake up call to end this "pandemic" of hysteria and tyranny.  I’d add every world leader to that list,  but I suspect they already know all this and have another agenda entirely.

As for America, we’re capable of re-developing our internal markets as things shift, and in point of fact, I believe this may very well start what I believed was inevitable, as least before Biden and his band of economic incompetents took over, and that is, manufacturers moving back to America.  However, our crumbling economic foundation is getting people to go back to work.  We have the jobs, just need employees.  Staying home and getting paid, not having to pay rent, etc., is our crumbling foundation, along with the cost of energy.  If we stop the hysteria, the unemployment issue could fix itself, but what about what is going to become an energy crisis, especially this winter.  The costs are going to skyrocket, and there may even be an issue with availability, as there was during the Carter years.

That needs Congress to end Biden's foolish green insanity, but this isn't just a problem at the federal level.   This dangerous green agenda to change the State of New York's Constitution, which would give them unprecedented power to destroy that state's economy, is a national trend.

It used to be Global Warming but the world is going to go into a cooling period, so it's now Climate Change, and we might very well be facing what's called a Solar Minimum, which means massive cooling.  That's what Washington faced at Valley Forge, which was about a 75 year gap between what's call the called the Maunder and Dalton Minimums, and it never really warmed up all that much during that gap.  If there's going to be a big cooling period, which the solar cycle patterns say that's what's coming, that, with all the permutations that implies,  has to be added to the equation.
But I think Allison's analysis is a recipe for what’s going to happen to much of the rest of the world, and China’s economy, which was never really what everyone claimed, is going to suffer more than ever after the Evergrande collapse, which I see as their Stock Market Crash of 29.

The Crash of 29 didn’t cause the Great Depression.  Unemployment was around 2% before the Crash, it only went up to 8% after, and if left alone it would have bottomed out mostly likely in two years or less, recovered, and been nothing more than a hard short recession since very few people owned stocks in those days.   What it did trigger was Hoover’s hysterical government responses that drove unemployment up to 15%.  Then FDR out Hoovered Hoover in spite of criticizing him for what he did during the 32 election campaign.

During the FDR years, unemployment bottomed out at 9%, topping at around 25%, and averaging 15% from 1932 until WWII with FDR’s Keynesian economics of government interference, massive spending and creating a mass of bureaus, agencies and regulations.   I might add filling them with communists, Soviet agents, socialists and fellow travelers, including "the Office of Strategic Services, the predecessor to the CIA, housed at one time or another between fifteen and twenty Soviet spies."    See Venona Intercepts.  If you haven't already done so, I would like for you to think about that for a while, and see this farther, deeper and wider than your peers as you apply it to who openly occupies the seats of power now.  Your conclusions should be startling.
I said that to lay foundation for believing this is what will happen in China after Evergrande collapses. Because Xi is another Mao, I suspect we’re going to see long term economic deterioration in China.
 

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